iPhone Duo Why the iPhone Fold will Fail [MERGED] [MEGA THREAD]

[Pbwallstreet]

So you are going to buy basically an iPhone Duo without the folding screen and an OS you dislike, and claim it’s better and the Duo will fail? I think you just don’t like the price and if the Duo was 1000 you’d snap it up.

Yes, I will likely buy the Mini as I said to use as a straight tablet. So not using multi-tasking like stage manager; etc. Just reading articles and documents.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

It's quite comical how you defend the 1% iMac market share as "very broad". By the very same token, the "2% foldable global market share" you like to toss around is also "very broad" and skewed by irrelevant product segments.

Laptops are portable, iMacs aren’t. Laptops make up the majority of PC sales. Proper analysis is MacBook marketshare of the laptop segment.

Folds are smartphones. They’re not desktops. They’re not cars. They’re not mirages. It is a fair analysis that the marketshare is related to non-folding smarphines.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Well, I'm a shareholder and fully behind Apple's leadership and their decision to enter the "2%" market (which we both know is truly at least 10-15%, but that will be our secret).

Correct, not all foldables are $2K. But even a cheaper Flip phone firmly straddles the premium and ultra-premium price categories. Foldables inherently are more expensive than mainstream devices and even flagship slab phones. The fact foldables sell 25 million units a year, with unabated yearly double-to-triple digit growth since inception bodes well for the segment. And now with the Apple effect kicking in, you're going to notice a lot more foldables around soon and that purported "niche" format is all of a sudden going to become very common.

The underlying premise in posts like this is if something is above some dollar threshold it’s then not going to sell as well.

Here is a rhetorical question: what percentage of total iPhone sales are made up of Pro and Pro Max?

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Hard to really say, since I've gone back through this thread and see that you've changed so many posts it's difficult at this point to know what you did say previously. But I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and agree.

All you did was describe it in first-person, as if you had seen it and touched the screen, (you call it "sandpaper") which you say is a "deep" and "aggressive" matte. You haven't seen or handled it. You've watched some videos, congratulations.


It is? As compared to what?

You even criticized someone else's opinion because they hadn't seen it in person. Make that make sense:

🤣

I don't feel that I need to explain this, but watching some YouTube videos is not seeing the screen in person.


Please describe how "aggressive" the nano-texture is, from first hand experience. Is it the same as a nano-texture screen iPad? The same as a nano-texture Studio Display? Both? Neither? You can't tell us because you don't know.


Which, again, you haven't seen in person.


So let's just make up what can be seen then!


If you've touched one in person, then you can tell us it feels like sandpaper. Wait, you haven't so you can't.


Oh that's interesting. Those who disagree with you are suffering from hubris. Go on...


Pot, kettle.




^And finally we have what should be the title of this thread. ^

If you don't like the device, or its manufacture, appearance, features, etc, that's great. But please stop trying to talk to us as if you have any first hand knowledge. You don't know what the screen looks or feels like. What you have is opinion. Totally valid, but not backed up with any first-hand observations or data.

And tbh none of that pretend knowledge is needed to support the theme of this thread, which is that you think it will be a "niche" product that "fails." It's an opinion, you don't need to make things up to support your feelings.

I think I will learn from you and write in italic so I can pretend I have emotion.

Fact: After 7 years of foldable smartphones on the market, they are at 2% smartphone marletshare. It doesn’t matter what you think or feel. It doesn’t matter what I think or feel. They are niche. If people wanted them, there is a massive smartphone market that would pile into them. But they haven’t.

Fact: Apple uses a nano-texture matte finish on the Duo. Those already exist on iPad and MacBook Pro. I have seen them. And yes the Duo’s inner screen looks like sandpaper. I can see videos with my own eyes and make that statement. And the matte screens on iPads and MacBooks look like sandpaper to me in person.

Fact: Microsoft had what is effectively the exact same design with their Duo over 6 years ago. It failed miserably. Yes the Duo has a real folding screen and fixes some of the issues with MS’s device, but the foundational design and modality is the same.

I don’t have some feelings about this. I have feelings for my wife. This is a business discussion. There are multiple reasons I considered in making my prediction that this thing is going to fail.

Seeing what Apple has now released, I double-down on that prediction. Slick product launch animations? Check. People smiling and pontificating about design? Check. Practical reasons why most people would want this thing? Nope.

I want to be proven wrong. I want new classes of devices as much as anyone. But lawnmowers with wings don’t work.

 

[Luftkopf]

Duo will flop, it’s too expensive and I already carry my iPad mini almost everywhere I go… I do not need it to be foldable to be carried… So I see no point of buying this iPhone duo which is more than 3x more expensive than a mini !

The Duo seems much better than I expected, given all the 'iPad minireplacement' talk. Watching the videos, the Duo is its own thing. An iPhone with a bigger screen and a more flexible (hah!) set capabilities. Were I wealthy enough to spend AU$3500 on a toy, not a single reason I'd get one has any overlap with why I use an iPad.

All this iPad talk really does both devices a disservice.

 

[gardiboy]

I wonder how existing apps will show on the fold opened screen and if they will appear weird. Any videos showing this?

 

[surferfb]

Laptops are portable, iMacs aren’t. Laptops make up the majority of PC sales. Proper analysis is MacBook marketshare of the laptop segment.

MacBook Pro makes up 3% of all PCs sold and roughly 4% of laptop sales. By your definition, that means they are niche, and under your definition, niche means they’re failures.

Here is a rhetorical question: what percentage of total iPhone sales are made up of Pro and Pro Max?

The iPhone Pro and Pro Max together are about 9 to 10% of global smartphone unit sales; each model is roughly 4 to 5%. (Pretty niche!)

Globally, the Pro Max is roughly 22 to 25% of iPhone unit sales and the Pro is roughly 18 to 22%.

If the iPhone Duo gets to 10% of iPhones sold (or ~2% of the global smartphone market) then its revenue will equal estimates of the base model iPhone’s revenue.

I think the idea that something is niche means it’s a failure is laughably wrong, but especially at this price, niche does not mean failure.

 

[iphoneultraIslife]

The OP actual argument as its written is that the iPhone Duo "might fail" but written as "will fail" to cause more engagement. So there is no way to convince this dude of been right or wrong. If the thing is a success, he will say that there were disclaimers, if it fails he will take the cookie. Time will tell if we bend the knee to the OP or not. I am just ready for pre-orders to open.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

MacBook Pro makes up 3% of all PCs sold and roughly 4% of laptop sales. By your definition, that means they are niche, and under your definition, niche means they’re failures.


The iPhone Pro and Pro Max together are about 9 to 10% of global smartphone unit sales; each model is roughly 4 to 5%. (Pretty niche!)

Globally, the Pro Max is roughly 22 to 25% of iPhone unit sales and the Pro is roughly 18 to 22%.

If the iPhone Duo gets to 10% of iPhones sold (or ~2% of the global smartphone market) then its revenue will equal estimates of the base model iPhone’s revenue.

I think the idea that something is niche means it’s a failure is laughably wrong, but especially at this price, niche does not mean failure.

I already addressed this. Less than 10% of Apple’s revenues comes from Mac. 78% comes from iPhone and services.

If all Apple did was Mac, they would not be the same company they are today. They might even cease to exist for a number of reasons. Regardless, your marketshare stat for laptops is wrong.

Back to the topic: so iPhone Pro and Pro Max is almost 50% of total iPhone sales… that demonstrates that high price smartphones can sell in the 50% marketshare in their segment.

And really back to the topic: my prediction is based on the premise that most people do not want and do not need a tablet when they use a smartphone. They want the right tool for the job, and will not volunteer to subject themselves to the design compromises of a foldable. It’s useless. It will remain niche. Apple may discontinue it.

Time will tell whether I am right or wrong. And I look forward to be proven right, or proven wrong.

 

[akac]

Just my two cents.

My wife looked at the Duo and said "I need that" (she uses an iPad and iPhone today)
Two engineering friends of mine texted me and went "I plan to get the Duo". Both of them were not interested before the presentation.
I was not planning on getting the Duo, but after seeing the software - I am getting it myself.

So…I think it's going to be a lot more popular than some people think.

 

[joshwithachance]

The Duo will absolutely NOT fail. Even with its shortcomings and high price tag.

 

[klasma]

Thats based on current thinking of running a single instance at a time. The Duo has the power of Zeus at its disposal and could easily run them simultaneously.

Those two instances wouldn’t be sharing state, which would be incredibly confusing for most users. In addition, notifications for the app would appear twice, once for each instance, as if they were on two separate devices. It just doesn’t make much sense to provide that kind of setup.

 

[klasma]

It’s a nano texture matte screen. Those already exist on iPad and Macbook. You spend all that time writing a post like that as if what Apple has done is something completely different on the Duo.

Technically it’s not the same thing, because on the iPad and MacBook it’s a process applied to the glass, while the Duo inner screen doesn’t use glass, it’s a different process applied to a plastic layer. Some recent MacRumors article mentions how they had to develop a new process for that. So while it’s not completely different, it’s also not exactly the same.

 

[surferfb]

I already addressed this. Less than 10% of Apple’s revenues comes from Mac. 78% comes from iPhone and services.

If all Apple did was Mac, they would not be the same company they are today. They might even cease to exist for a number of reasons.

It really feels like every time someone points out some data that disagrees with your opinions/claims it’s magically all of a sudden not relevant, even if they’re replying to a specific ask from you.

Also, what does this have to do with what we’re talking about? Is your argument “niche isn’t a failure if it’s not their main market segment?” In what world does that make any sense? If anything, it seems you’d want to have more niche offerings in your largest market segment to reach as many customers as possible, and less niche in your other segments because the ROI in additional models isn’t there.

Regardless, your marketshare stat for laptops is wrong.

Please provide a source that my marketshare stat is wrong. I took the latest IDC market share estimates for Mac (~10%), then multiplied the estimated breakdown of MacBook Pro between Mac product lines from (35-40%). Not exact, but should be in the ballpark. Side note: MacBook Air market share is even lower than MacBook Pro. Is that device niche and a failure?

Back to the topic: so iPhone Pro and Pro Max is almost 50% of total iPhone sales… that demonstrates that high price smartphones can sell in the 50% marketshare in their segment.

You seem to pick whatever definition of market share segment that fits your argument best. Do we care about the Duo’s market share of all phones, all “high-priced” phones, all iPhones, or all “high-priced” iPhones? Pick one and stick with it.

And really back to the topic: my prediction is based on the premise that most people do not want and do not need a tablet when they use a smartphone. They want the right tool for the job, and will not volunteer to subject themselves to the design compromises of a foldable. It’s useless. It will remain niche. Apple may discontinue it.

I agree most people do not “need” a tablet when they use a smartphone. I also agree that if you’re in a situation where you have access to both your phone and your tablet, then using the right tool for the job makes sense.

But that doesn’t mean the Duo is “useless,” because often people are in situations where they don’t have access to both devices. Many of those people will be willing to accept the “compromises” to have both devices in one, the same way I accept the compromise of a worse camera on my phone rather than carrying my camera everywhere with me.

I mean, under your “use the right tool for the job” theory, you could argue the phone would be better without a camera because there’d be room for more battery and thinner designs, making it more portable. Or there shouldn’t be a GPS chip and everyone should use dedicated SatNavs because GPS kills battery life. Why are those features different than a foldable tablet?

And as I’ve shown over, and over, and over in this thread, just because something is niche does not mean it’s a failure, which is my main point.

Time will tell whether I am right or wrong. And I look forward to be proven right, or proven wrong.

As do I.

 

[Ctrlos]

Those two instances wouldn’t be sharing state, which would be incredibly confusing for most users. In addition, notifications for the app would appear twice, once for each instance, as if they were on two separate devices. It just doesn’t make much sense to provide that kind of setup.

Again, design problems ironed out by Apple before release.

 

[Jumpthesnark]

I think I will learn from you and write in italic so I can pretend I have emotion.

Fact: After 7 years of foldable smartphones on the market, they are at 2% smartphone marletshare. It doesn’t matter what you think or feel. It doesn’t matter what I think or feel. They are niche. If people wanted them, there is a massive smartphone market that would pile into them. But they haven’t.

Fact: Apple uses a nano-texture matte finish on the Duo. Those already exist on iPad and MacBook Pro. I have seen them. And yes the Duo’s inner screen looks like sandpaper. I can see videos with my own eyes and make that statement. And the matte screens on iPads and MacBooks look like sandpaper to me in person.

Fact: Microsoft had what is effectively the exact same design with their Duo over 6 years ago. It failed miserably. Yes the Duo has a real folding screen and fixes some of the issues with MS’s device, but the foundational design and modality is the same.

I don’t have some feelings about this. I have feelings for my wife. This is a business discussion. There are multiple reasons I considered in making my prediction that this thing is going to fail.

Seeing what Apple has now released, I double-down on that prediction. Slick product launch animations? Check. People smiling and pontificating about design? Check. Practical reasons why most people would want this thing? Nope.

I want to be proven wrong. I want new classes of devices as much as anyone. But lawnmowers with wings don’t work.

Italics are for emphasis, not emotion.

Wow, none of that addresses at all what I was saying about you having no first-hand experience with the Duo despite making claims what would require first-hand experience to be accurate. Glad you agree with me, I guess.

The closest is what you say about nano-texture which repeats my statement (that Apple has something by the same name on other devices), but again you haven't touched it, you don't know what it feels like.

And BTW Apple says they came up with a new nano-texture just for this device. Oops.

Anyway enjoy continuing to beat the dead horse in this thread. Your reply is a perfect example of this.

 

[bcbickers]

Didn't mean to usurp this thread. Moved my question to a dedicated post.

 

[NeonNights]

Laptops are portable, iMacs aren’t. Laptops make up the majority of PC sales. Proper analysis is MacBook marketshare of the laptop segment.

Folds are smartphones. They’re not desktops. They’re not cars. They’re not mirages. It is a fair analysis that the marketshare is related to non-folding smarphines.

Precisely the point others and I are trying to get across: compare like with like.

As you alluded to, laptops are a subset of PC sales and a different category than desktops. The same principle applies to foldables being a subset of the smartphone market.

The category to properly group foldables, and derive accurate market share, is among premium/ultra-premium smartphones that cost $1000 or more. Continuing to push the 2% global market figure, that groups foldables along with a class of sub-$200 budget smartphones, lacks transparency and/or deliberately serves an agenda to discount and minimize the sheer volume of foldable sales and growth of the form factor. Regardless, foldables are not going away, more people are buying and using them, and the iPhone Duo isn't going to fail.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

MacBook Pro makes up 3% of all PCs sold and roughly 4% of laptop sales. By your definition, that means they are niche, and under your definition, niche means they’re failures.


The iPhone Pro and Pro Max together are about 9 to 10% of global smartphone unit sales; each model is roughly 4 to 5%. (Pretty niche!)

Globally, the Pro Max is roughly 22 to 25% of iPhone unit sales and the Pro is roughly 18 to 22%.

If the iPhone Duo gets to 10% of iPhones sold (or ~2% of the global smartphone market) then its revenue will equal estimates of the base model iPhone’s revenue.

I think the idea that something is niche means it’s a failure is laughably wrong, but especially at this price, niche does not mean failure.

I already addressed this. Less than 10% of Apple’s revenues comes from Mac. 78% comes from iPhone and services.

If all Apple did was Mac, they would not be the same company they are today. Regardless, Counterpoint Research has MacBook marketshare at 16% in the latest quarter by volume.

Back to the topic: so iPhone Pro and Pro Max is almost 50% of total iPhone sales… that demonstrates that a high price smartphones can sell in the 50% marketshare in their segment.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Exactly the point others and I are trying to get across: compare like to like.

As you alluded to, laptops are a subset of PC sales and a different category than desktops. The same principle applies to foldables being a subset of the smartphone market.

The category to properly group foldables, and derive accurate market share, is among premium/ultra-premium smartphones that cost $1000 or more. Continuing to push the 2% global market figure, that groups foldables along with a class of sub-$200 smartphones, lacks transparency and/or deliberately serves an agenda to discount and minimize the sheer volume of foldable sales and growth of the form factor. Regardless, foldables are not going away, more people are buying and using them, and the iPhone Duo isn't going to fail.

They’re smartphones. They aren’t in their own class. If you think different, then we aren’t going to agree.

 

[NeonNights]

They’re smartphones. They aren’t in their own class. If you think different, then we aren’t going to agree.

Foldables are clearly in a higher stratified price bracket, but you like to generalize and compare them with the cheapest of phones and ignore facts or details. That is why we disagree.

The market recognizes different pricing tiers. Apple itself designs products for various price points, all the while careful to maintain its premium or up-brand status. Apple doesn't want to confuse its branding or mix with the truly budget crowd, yet you'll throw $2000 foldables in together with bargain bin models. Hardly representive and, yes, easily disagreeable.

 

[surferfb]

I already addressed this. Less than 10% of Apple’s revenues comes from Mac. 78% comes from iPhone and services.

You already addressed it, I responded to it, and you required the existing post rather than my reply to your response. Maybe you’re working your way down to it, but to restate my response:

What does this have to do with what we’re talking about? Is your argument “niche isn’t a failure if it’s not their main market segment?” In what world does that make any sense? If anything, it seems you’d want to have more niche offerings in your largest market segment to reach as many customers as possible, and less niche in your other segments because the ROI in additional models isn’t there.

If all Apple did was Mac, they would not be the same company they are today. Regardless, Counterpoint Research has MacBook marketshare at 16% in the latest quarter by volume.

MacBook marketshare is not the same thing as MacBook Pro marketshare. That’d be like me claiming the Duo isn’t niche because iPhones have ~30% marketshare worldwide.

Back to the topic: so iPhone Pro and Pro Max is almost 50% of total iPhone sales… that demonstrates that a high price smartphones can sell in the 50% marketshare in their segment.

Again, I responded to this already.