iPhone Duo Why the iPhone Fold will Fail [MERGED] [MEGA THREAD]

[Daniel Alvarez Arribas]

On the "compromised" argument: It is easy to take it to an absurd extreme either way.

You could argue that laptops are a compromise between tablets and desktops, and they are selling like hotcakes.

The question is what the right kind of compromises is to result in an added value for the intended target audience.

Besides commuters and travellers, I can totally see retirees buying this in numbers as their forever phone with the benefit of including a high-end screen reader. Especially given that the book format is familiar. Kindles are nice, but realistically you'll still want to carry an extra phone. Now you don't have to.

With advancing age, many people get bad eyesight. This benefits enormously from a larger display, while still fitting into a pocket. Remember that eventually, we will all age into disability. For the senior demographic, the foldable may essentially be used like the visual equivalent to a hearing aid. And seniors are accustomed to orthopedic pricing.

Likewise, this has practical benefits for people wearing contact lenses, of which there are many. Imagine being able to fold out a larger display in bed, when already having removed the contact lenses for the day.

For the right user, it could be quite compelling, if they market and price it right.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Ask yourself why Apple sees potential in entering that 2%? That 2% still represents 25+ million units annually, and growing. Hybrids and EVs were also once 2% of the market and that changed in short time. Why so strongly against progress when you're not forced to buy a foldable anything?

Face it, phone makers can't continue to enlarge existing slab designs. The iPhone Pro Max is already unwieldy and poorly balanced in the hand. Foldables allow a larger screen in a smaller and lighter footprint. If you're not the target demographic then slab options are still available. But it's nice to have a foldable in the lineup.

The iPhone Pro Max won't need to get any bigger from this point on because the foldable iPhone can take over. And in time, the foldable iPhone can add back the telephoto lens and maybe Apple can work FaceID back in too. At least it gives Apple something to work on since innovation has stagnated on slab iPhones.

You seem to assume that Apple is infallible. They aren’t. You can ask yourself why they decided to enter the AR/VR market with the AVP when it was a niche market.

I have the iPhone Pro 17 Max and don’t like the design. But adding another slab and hinge and another screen is obviously not the solution. The solution is core technology improvements like smaller and better batteries, much smaller and better cameras so they don’t create such a massive protrusion on the top of the device, etc.

None of this is really solved by a foldable because the fundamental technology and its limitations are the same.

 

[Nyx1]

The biggest problem is not device is the price $2k+ is crazy they late join foldable market and they want people pay $2k for this device even design fugly also another competitor have telephoto lens and this iPhone ultra even doesn't have face id it will be the same fate like iPhone air. If the put face id and telephoto lens it's fine if the thickness will be 5mm and the price $2k i think people will be accepted they missing face id that the crucial problem for this device.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

It literally is. It is literally a replacement for someone’s current phone.
Unless someone plans on carrying around two separate phones, it’s an iPhone, that happens to fold, that people will use instead of an iPhone, that does not fold.
The vision pro was not a replacement for anything, it couldn’t replace a Mac, it couldn’t replace an iPhone, and it wasn’t even close to the same thing as a tablet.

Love how you cut off my post and lose context. What I said is that it is two devices in one, in response to another person. It is being argued that it is a device that can replace a tablet and serve as 2 devices in one. And that is the problem: it does neither product better than its dedicated counter-parts.

 

[bryo]

It’s for china.

 

[NotApplicable]

Love how you cut off my post and lose context. What I said is that it is two devices in one, in response to another person. It is being argued that it is a device that can replace a tablet and serve as 2 devices in one. And that is the problem: it does neither product better than its dedicated counter-parts.

I'm not buying it for that reason, I'm buying it because it's a better iPhone form factor for me. Still keeping my 13" iPad Pro, my 16" MacBook Pro, and other devices for other purposes!

 

[Daniel Alvarez Arribas]

I remember selling my iPad because it was just this extra device that I never really got into, did not copy my data to, nor made any effort to carry around. I was just too used to grabbing my phone.

While Apple does advertise and support cross-device data sharing via iCloud, for many users, the good old-fashioned way of having most of their use focus on a single device is an advantage not to be underestimated.

As photographers say: The best camera is the one that you have with you.

Having a phone and a tablet is not just the extra cost in money. But also the cost in effort and mindshare of setting up, learning how to use, remembering to pack, and actually packing an extra device. Old habits die hard. When travelling and it's not on your person, there is an added cost to keeping it safe. And now you can get an Apple phone, 80% usable as a tablet whenever you want, with pretty much none of this.

The big "If" being, executing and pricing it right.

 

[NeonNights]

You seem to assume that Apple is infallible. They aren’t. You can ask yourself why they decided to enter the AR/VR market with the AVP when it was a niche market.

I have the iPhone Pro 17 Max and don’t like the design. But adding another slab and hinge and another screen is obviously not the solution. The solution is core technology improvements like smaller and better batteries, much smaller and better cameras so they don’t create such a massive protrusion on the top of the device, etc.

None of this is really solved by a foldable because the fundamental technology and its limitations are the same.

In my earlier post I agreed with the AVP being a mistake (primarily a pricing mistake, but cutting edge tech was always going to be expensive). Foldables, however, are not a new segment like Apple tried to create with Spatial Computing. Foldables have been around since 2019 with double- or triple-digit growth every year since then. Apple, in essence, is entering a mature market completely opposite of what AVP was. Apple had product stumbles across its history, but the foldable iPhone is not a big risk.

A Pro iPhone will have an additional camera and FaceID, whereas a foldable iPhone will have the largest screen and better multitasking and viewing experience. Aside from that, both formats will run iOS and overlap in functionality. Consumers can decide which feature(s) are more important to them.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

In my earlier post I agreed with the AVP being a mistake (primarily a pricing mistake, but cutting edge tech was always going to be expensive). Foldables, however, are not a new segment like Apple tried to create with Spatial Computing. Foldables have been around since 2019 with double- or triple-digit growth every year since then. Apple, in essence, is entering a mature market completely opposite of what AVP was. Apple had product stumbles across its history, but the foldable iPhone is not a big risk.

A Pro iPhone will have an additional camera and FaceID, whereas a foldable iPhone will have the largest screen and better multitasking and viewing experience. Aside from that, both formats will run iOS and overlap in functionality. Consumers can decide which feature(s) are more important to them.

Just making things up. AR/VR has been around for what, decades? Spatial computing was not entirely new/an Apple invention either.

Also, there is very little evidence that price was a key factor in AVP not taking off.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

There is some wisdom in that. However, these numbers can be quite misleading whichever way you look at them. A key reason for the low percentage is that the total market share of high-end smartphones ($1000+ US) is no more than some 10% of unit sales anyway. Under $500 US is where 70% of the unit sales are. Most smartphones are fairly inexpensive devices and those just do not comprise foldables. In the $1000+ US market, foldables right now make up about 10-15% unit sales. At $1500+ US you are looking at some 40%. Conversely, to a large extent this is due to the fact that foldables are more expensive, so they naturally end up comprising large percentages at the top-end where apart from foldables you only find terabyte iPhone Pros and things like diamond-plated curiosity phones. Either way, such percentages do not carry much meaning as to what the total addressable market is.

As per Counterpoint Research, total cumulative foldable sales are approaching 100 million devices globally, and growing. This is without Apple ever having offered such a device. So what they are seeing is other brands in that category making money unopposed, and trends going up. One key risk is high-value customers switching ecosystems due to an entire category of devices not being offered. Also, the book form factor plays directly into the whole Apple shtick of "Living at the intersection of liberal arts and tech". So if Apple launches a mini occasionally, and an Air, they may as well launch a foldable.

One detail that suggests this may be beneficial is that the terabyte iPhone Pro will likely appeal to media creators (cameras, sturdiness, battery), while the Apple foldable will likely appeal to media consumers (large screen size, unwieldiness, less sturdy hinge, less cameras). So realistically, in the upper price segment, the Apple foldable will probably eat up more market share of competing foldables than cannibalize terabyte iPhone Pros.

Nobody knows how this will play out though. Apple may as well launch with some hinge-gate or screen-gate issue, or simply price themselves out of any reasonable success.

100 million (total sales over time) sounds like a lot, and it is. But it is still a small percentage overall of the smartphone market.

There is little evidence that foldables would capture significantly more marketshare if they were cheaper. Also, there are foldables for $800 USD…

 

[robvalentine]

Yes, I know people will jump on this and flame me. But this is a prediction and we will see if I am right or wrong over time.

I predicted the AVP would fail because it was obvious: it was worse at many things compared to other device types like smartphones and laptops and desktops. That it didn’t have much of a reason to exist.

Same too for the Fold. It is worse at several things compared to non-folding smartphones, laptops, desktops… and doesn’t have much of a reason to exist.

• Unfolded or folded, the Fold has seams since effectively 2 slabs are sandwiched onto each other and with a hinge. It will always therefore be design compromised compared to a non-folding smartphone.
• Because of the folding capability, and this is a big deal, it has to have a PLASTIC SCREEN. Plastic is noticeably inferior to glass from an optics standpoint, including reflections, and it will have a crease. And over time, we can see that the crease gets more pronounced with other Foldables. So on this, it will have a worse screen than non-folding products like an iPhone or MacBook or iPad.
• Fragility and processing power: it will be more fragile because they have to make each slab as thin as possible and there is a hinge, which is subject to breaking and failure. And the thermals suffer which can compromise performance.
• Very few use cases: the Fold turns into a tablet… but people buy and use non-folding smartphones precisely because of its form-factor: pocketable, one handed use, simple interfaces in software, etc. They aren’t asking for something to turn into a tablet, it doesn’t fit the use cases. And the stats support people not wanting Folds: Foldable smartphones after several years on the market still only have less than 5% of the total smartphone marketshare.

You don’t and won’t see people standing in line at a grocery store with one basket of food in one hand and an unfolded smartphone in the other hand. One handed device use is one of the main use cases of non-folding smartphones.

And for people who also like and want a tablet, it comes down to the problem of the fold being inferior across a set of things to a non-folding iPad.

I don’t see, therefore, how an iPhone Fold can be successful for Apple. Will some people buy it? Yes. How is failure defined? For Apple, it would be not leading in marketshare in the category and not capturing enough customers to make it a viable category to continue developing. Apple needs relatively large markets and scale, and that is not going to happen with the Fold is my prediction.

Go ahead and attack me, and for anyone wanting this device on day 1, that’s great. I don’t think foldables will not exist, but a device that doesn’t have much of a reason to exist is nothing more than a niche market device at best.

Given the Samsung fold, and other brands are doing well, it will probably work as a halo product.

It will do better than the AVP, as it isn't really a niche anymore, just late to market. given how everything is going up in price, I think now is the right time to release it as the value shock might be lessened.

 

[G5isAlive]

At under 2% of the total market, foldables absolutely qualify as “niche”. As to whether that remains true in the future is anyone’s guess.

You either missed or ignored my point... which was not whether it was a niche, but only if niche is a failure (the point of this thread). And the word niche is dismissive, Porsches make up 0.016% of all motor vehicles sold in a year, so that is a niche your definition, actually an ultra niche (pardon the joke), yet few would call Porsches a failure. Though I suspect some would try to argue such to support a bad position.

 

[fatTribble]

Whatever makes you happy. Buy one, don't buy one, no one cares. But don't pretend to know the future. If you did, you'd be a Lotto billionaire by now.

I never understood the desire to make predictions as though you get a trophy if you’re right or something.

 

[4sallypat]

So, WHY will it fail? You're not giving any reasons for that ...

Not saying it will fail.
Just saying the folding iPhone is a niche product, like the AVP.

It may start off initially well, but time will tell if the public is ready to invest twice the cash into a cell phone.

 

[Daniel Alvarez Arribas]

I never understood the desire to make predictions as though you get a trophy if you’re right or something.

This is pretty much what industry analysts and related news media do for a living. The purpose being twofold: guiding investors (and practically, competitors), and informing purchasing decisions. Add to that fandom and the high identification that Apple in particular as a lifestyle technology brand enjoys with its core audience. Whether we personally relate to any of that, MacRumors just happens to be the kind of place where such stuff tends to bundle up, and the forum attracts a corresponding audience and discussions. It's simply a selection effect vs. the more general public.

 

[G5isAlive]

It may start off initially well, but time will tell if the public is ready to invest twice the cash into a cell phone.

As compared to what? The public already IS willing and do invest twice the cash into a cell phone. Heck ignore the cheap android market, the 17e starts at $599 which some prefer to buy, and 17 pro max which some buy can hit $1599. Time will tell if they want a foldable or not. I suspect enough will to justify its existence.

 

[Entilzha]

The iPad was supposed to be a failure, too.

Just saying.

 

[4sallypat]

This is a forum…. AVP is a flop, even if you might like it. If somebody makes a painting thinking it will sell at an auction for 1 million but somebody buys it for 10k. It is a flop, even though the buyer might like it.

Never said I liked the AVP.

If you read my subsequent post, I said I returned the AVP in a week after using it because my iPhone would not sync to it, making it a useless pair of foggles (we use in aviation).

 

[jz0309]

Not saying it will fail.
Just saying the folding iPhone is a niche product, like the AVP.

It may start off initially well, but time will tell if the public is ready to invest twice the cash into a cell phone.

Sorry, I responded assuming you were the original
Poster but only later realized that you were responding, to a post that was/is not visible to me ...

 

[4sallypat]

As compared to what? The public already IS willing and do invest twice the cash into a cell phone. Heck ignore the cheap android market, the 17e starts at $599 which some prefer to buy, and 17 pro max which some buy can hit $1599. Time will tell if they want a foldable or not. I suspect enough will to justify its existence.

Twice the cash of my iPhone 17 Air is what I meant.

I'd rather have the Air 2 if it ever comes out.

But my business phone is a folding Google Pixel phone so will have to wait until tomorrow to see if the features can persuade me to switch over for a hefty fee.

 

[G5isAlive]

Twice the cash of my iPhone 17 Air is what I meant.

I'd rather have the Air 2 if it ever comes out.

But my business phone is a folding Google Pixel phone so will have to wait until tomorrow to see if the features can persuade me to switch over for a hefty fee.

I was highly tempted by the Air... so I get your point. But aren't we discussing personal preference? I doubt I will buy a fold today but thats because of the overall economy, not just the price of the fold. But then I own both an iPhone and a iPad menu because screen size is important to me, so I get why some will buy the fold.

 

[NeonNights]

Just making things up. AR/VR has been around for what, decades? Spatial computing was not entirely new/an Apple invention either.

Also, there is very little evidence that price was a key factor in AVP not taking off.

AR/VR has been around, but that's not what Apple was targeting when they released AVP at 10x the cost of the Occulus/Meta Quest. Name the other spatial computing product that competes with AVP? No one is cross-shopping a Meta Quest vs AVP. If you want evidence that price definitely factored into AVP not taking off, just ask Tim Cook:

"At $3,500, it's not a mass-market product. Right now, it's an early-adopter product."

Further evidence of the AVP price barrier was Apple attempting to create an AVP-lite version at $2500.

 

[Harddrive]

I really don't think outside of these forums the masses are going to purchase them but I could be wrong but I see as many Android phones as Apple phones and Android folable has been out for years and yet I only saw one at the steak house a year ago but I could be wrong.

 

[RoadWarrior56]

I have a novel idea. The folding iPhone is not even announced until tomorrow. Nobody knows at this time how it will sell in the long run, or whether or not it will be considered a success. Why not revisit this thread in about 6 months so that we can see who was right? I am neutral on the subject.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

AR/VR has been around, but that's not what Apple was targeting when they released AVP at 10x the cost of the Occulus/Meta Quest. Name the other spatial computing product that competes with AVP? If you want evidence that price definitely factored into AVP not taking off, just ask Tim Cook:

"At $3,500, it's not a mass-market product. Right now, it's an early-adopter product."

Further evidence of the AVP price barrier was Apple attempting to create an AVP-lite version at $2500.

I don’t eat up what corporations shoot out of their mouths. There is little evidence that they would sell much more if the price was much cheaper but there is evidence that even if they did sell more, many would be sitting not used and collecting dust.