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iPhone Duo Why the iPhone Fold will Fail [MERGED] [MEGA THREAD]

I feel more like that: iphone air flopped because it was compared to its siblings. But its a good phone in general. If i got it, i would have loved it.
I think the same will happen with the foldable device. It will be a good device in general tho.
 
surferfb said:
As I replied to you when you posted this thread last year, that “2%” marketshare is without Apple offering a foldable.

I am not saying the iPhone foldable is guaranteed to be a mass hit (in fact, I don’t expect it to be anywhere close to the most popular iPhone sold), but it's not as simple as "only 2% to date, so no wants one."

Apple has a global market share of something like 67% of phones sold over $1000 USD. Which means, to date, roughly 2 out of every 3 people potentially interested in a foldable would have to switch OSes to get one, and most people won't consider switching OSes.

If only 10% of iPhones sold are foldables (which is a few percentage points higher than estimates for the iPhone Air that everyone says has flopped), that would increase the global rate to something like 5% of all phones sold being foldables. It's also highly possible that the fact that Apple makes a foldable (and presumably advertises it heavily) draws attention to the product category and the share of Android foldables rises as well.

And remember, the revenue on these is going to sky high. Let’s assume 10% of iPhones sold are foldable.At a $2000 average selling price (and ASP will be higher than that), that's like $20-30 billion in additional revenue a year. Which could match all Macs sold (~$30b) or all iPads (~$28 billion). It’s like getting a decent percentage of your best customers to buy one-and-a-half to two iPhones instead of one.

It's still serious revenue if we drop that to 5% of iPhones sold (less than iPhone Air) - $10-$15 billion in additional revenue - so a little less than Apple Watch annual revenue. Even if you are right, and Apple just matches the 2% market share Android foldables have to date, it's an extra $5 billion in revenue.

No one is arguing the foldable will be the #1 selling iPhone, but I think you're seriously underestimating how few (relatively speaking) they have to sell for it to be very worthwhile for Apple.
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Pretty much mike drop. F that guy.
 
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4sallypat said:
So you are saying I have a 33% chance of switching from my Pixel Pro Fold to the Apple Folding ??
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I’ve followed your posts for some time here, @4sallypat and I’d say if you’re living the good life in retirement, flying your plane, traveling the world, and rocking a Neo AND a new Mac Studio, then there’s a 33% chance you’ll buy one in addition to your Pixel! 😉
 
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Pbwallstreet said:
Yes, I know people will jump on this and flame me. But this is a prediction and we will see if I am right or wrong over time.

I predicted the AVP would fail because it was obvious: it was worse at many things compared to other device types like smartphones and laptops and desktops. That it didn’t have much of a reason to exist.

Same too for the Fold. It is worse at several things compared to non-folding smartphones, laptops, desktops… and doesn’t have much of a reason to exist.

  • Unfolded or folded, the Fold has seams since effectively 2 slabs are sandwiched onto each other and with a hinge. It will always therefore be design compromised compared to a non-folding smartphone.
  • Because of the folding capability, and this is a big deal, it has to have a PLASTIC SCREEN. Plastic is noticeably inferior to glass from an optics standpoint, including reflections, and it will have a crease. And over time, we can see that the crease gets more pronounced with other Foldables. So on this, it will have a worse screen than non-folding products like an iPhone or MacBook or iPad.
  • Fragility and processing power: it will be more fragile because they have to make each slab as thin as possible and there is a hinge, which is subject to breaking and failure. And the thermals suffer which can compromise performance.
  • Very few use cases: the Fold turns into a tablet… but people buy and use non-folding smartphones precisely because of its form-factor: pocketable, one handed use, simple interfaces in software, etc. They aren’t asking for something to turn into a tablet, it doesn’t fit the use cases. And the stats support people not wanting Folds: Foldable smartphones after several years on the market still only have less than 5% of the total smartphone marketshare.
You don’t and won’t see people standing in line at a grocery store with one basket of food in one hand and an unfolded smartphone in the other hand. One handed device use is one of the main use cases of non-folding smartphones.

And for people who also like and want a tablet, it comes down to the problem of the fold being inferior across a set of things to a non-folding iPad.

I don’t see, therefore, how an iPhone Fold can be successful for Apple. Will some people buy it? Yes. How is failure defined? For Apple, it would be not leading in marketshare in the category and not capturing enough customers to make it a viable category to continue developing. Apple needs relatively large markets and scale, and that is not going to happen with the Fold is my prediction.

Go ahead and attack me, and for anyone wanting this device on day 1, that’s great. I don’t think foldables will not exist, but a device that doesn’t have much of a reason to exist is nothing more than a niche market device at best.
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I don’t think you’re wrong. Not an expert on newer folding phones but I have been a longtime loyal new iPhone annually customer. I have zero interest in a foldable phone for many of the reasons you indicated. I have been hoping for this first year lots of folks fall for the gimmick factor and opt for the Fold which will just help ensure I get whatever phone is my preference more easily. 🤣
 
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I think subjectivity and perceptions are within the hearts and minds of tigers everywhere.

My honest thoughts...

The folding phone era, has been interesting. Years ago ,when I was with Mobile service provider "3" in (Australia), I had a folding phone, beautiful phone, limited data obviously and 3G. I loved it though, because it was small enough to fill in my pocket.

Looking at Android's folding phone stuff from Samsnung etc , I have been somewhat okay with what I am saying from Android in that regard. Now Apple probably may make the folding factor "cool" again, but how it is designed and how it will be seen as two main critical issues for me. I already know that I won't be buying it, because it would seem redundant to own an Apple fold that folds into a bigger screen , when I have an foriPad "work" (i use that with air quotes, lol)" and entertainment on the bigger screen. My iPhone has literally just become a doormat for phone calls, texting and whatsapp communitcation with family across Australia.

I certainly will wait to see what they come up with. People will buy it, and people buy it blindly, and then there are people who cannot afford to buy it. (Complaining about the so called high price - If it's so high for you then it is not aimed for you).
 
I'll lead with I have no desire for a folding phone, nor one of the huge slabs that others seem to prefer. However, I can remember a time when I bought all manner of expensive Sony products back in the 80s and 90s that I coveted, didn't need, and ended up rarely using because they were finicky, fragile or they were quickly left in the dust by the next coveted thing.

I have no idea what Apple considers a successful product, but considering that they take about 50% of the revenue in the entire mobile phone industry, 75% of the operating Profit and do that selling only about a quarter of the phones sold, they have more leeway to figure it out.

One note on the original post, Apple has invested Billions in Corning, and they make incredibly flexible VtG ion-exchange glass so I doubt this thing will have a plastic screen.
 
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darkridedp said:
I'll lead with I have no desire for a folding phone, nor one of the huge slabs that others seem to prefer. However, I can remember a time when I bought all manner of expensive Sony products back in the 80s and 90s that I coveted, didn't need, and ended up rarely using because they were finicky, fragile or they were quickly left in the dust by the next coveted thing.

I have no idea what Apple considers a successful product, but considering that they take about 50% of the revenue in the entire mobile phone industry, 75% of the operating Profit and do that selling only about a quarter of the phones sold, they have more leeway to figure it out.

One note on the original post, Apple has invested Billions in Corning, and they make incredibly flexible VtG ion-exchange glass so I doubt this thing will have a plastic screen.he outer surface can be plastic even with ultra-thin glass underneath. Samsung explicitly identifies its foldable protective film as PET plastic.
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The outer screen surface is generally plastic. Samsung, for instance, explicitly identifies its foldable protective film as PET plastic.

Apple’s profitability gives it room to experiment, but it doesn’t establish demand for a foldable.
 
Pbwallstreet said:
Because of the folding capability, and this is a big deal, it has to have a PLASTIC SCREEN. Plastic is noticeably inferior to glass from an optics standpoint, including reflections, and it will have a crease.
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Not sure how you missed the news that ultra-thin bendable glass has been a primary component in better foldable smartphone displays for years. Here's a good primer:


Sure the topmost layer will be some type of plastic, and there are plastic layers on which the illuminated image layer and the touch-sensitive layer are applied (since applying those to the glass layers runs the risk of those layers cracking, but not because the glass will crack, since it won't), but the plastic layers aren't the only ones in the screen, they're part of a sandwich of layers that together add up to the whole screen. The glass layers are there to provide rigidity, a more solid feel, optical flatness, and some crease reduction. The topmost plastic layer is there to provide at least partial protection for the glass layer under it from simple scratches that could weaken the glass. Unfortunately it's true that the plastic layers are what's mainly responsible for the crease that can get worse over time. Maybe that problem will be fixed over time with better plastic formulations.
 
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apple contributor said:
I feel more like that: iphone air flopped because it was compared to its siblings. But its a good phone in general. If i got it, i would have loved it.
I think the same will happen with the foldable device. It will be a good device in general tho.
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iPhone Air didn’t do well because it was a thinner candy bar phone, had mono speaker, one camera, USB speed was lacklustre, battery life acceptable (not great) and it was not priced correctly.

iPhold in comparison brings something new to the table. If iPhone Air can have FaceID, I suspect it maybe possible that iPhold may get it or maybe version 2.0.

You get two devices in one iPhone plus iPad mini in a pocketable formats that is thin. iPhone Air just is thin that’s it with the omission of other things.
 
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I predict they will sell at least according to the goals Apple set up and make them more than enough money to warrant it’s future development.

All these threads that’s been popping up also makes me understand why it’s hard to find people to do modelling, it’s a skill with low supply.
 
One thing is for sure: Apple is milking the iPhone for all it's worth: iPhone E, iPhone, Pro, Pro Max. Now we also have the Air, we will have a folding one and apparently the 20th anniversary version will be even more different.

Throw everything at the wall and see what sticks?
 
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I think this folding iPhone (Ultra or Duo, who cares…) will work like a timebomb for John Ternus. This absolutely bizarre idea belongs to Tim Cook, who got inspired by some people who liked foldable phones in Asia. But Asia is no America, and no Europe for sure.

I don’t believe people are eager to have even larger phones or folding phones at all, as well as we are getting to the point of big economic crisis and “right turn” for whole Europe, including UK, which will start around next year and will get to the tipping point around 2029. In this political and economic landscape NO ONE will need more foldable phones, no matter from Apple, Samsung, Google or even Lenovo-Motorola. They are super expensive and impractical, just like AVP. And people will only be getting poorer.

Though I am worried how it is gonna influence Apple stocks, I don’t like these “innovative” experiments because of how volatile stock price can become. Apple needs to stick to what sells, not to what “theoretically sells less but gives more $$$”
 
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Pbwallstreet said:
I always find this interesting that some people seem to think that people want a larger screen such as a double size jumbo smartphone screen X2. People are not asking for this. Some people like it. Some people have bought into foldable smartphones. But after 7 years, it is still only 2% of the global smartphone marketshare. That's reality.
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To be fair: no one asked for a touchscreen when Apple released the first iPhone. We were all used to Blackberries and similar phones.

I'm not in the market for a an Ultra/Duo or whatever it will be called so I'm not defending it. I would just like to point out that "people not asking for something" means very little.

I do wonder exactly what (if anything) people are asking for in the current range of iPhones? Very little I think. It's a mature product. You have the world's data on a screen in your hand and you can query it from pretty much anywhere. That's why the yearly upgrades are often limited to a slightly better camera, a color and a faster chip.

What else is there to add?
 
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Zensō said:
At under 2% of the total market, foldables absolutely qualify as “niche”. As to whether that remains true in the future is anyone’s guess.
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A small percentage of a huge market still results in huge numbers. Percentages have to be put in context to have meaning.

"My business grew 100% year over year" could mean that you only had one customer last year and now you have 2.
 
Pbwallstreet said:
Just making things up. AR/VR has been around for what, decades? Spatial computing was not entirely new/an Apple invention either.

Also, there is very little evidence that price was a key factor in AVP not taking off.
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My guess is that price was a huge part in AVP not taking off. In this day and economy a device that expensive is out of range for most people. Judging by the initial success and sales of Neo, I think we can conclude that a huuuuuuuge part of the market doesn't have AVP money to spare.

I know it's impossible, but if AVP had been $499 then it would have been an impulse buy for many customers. $499 you can recover from if you don't like it. $3499 is a completely different ballpark.
 
johnsawyercjs said:
Not sure how you missed the news that ultra-thin bendable glass has been a primary component in better foldable smartphone displays for years. Here's a good primer:


Sure the topmost layer will be some type of plastic, and there are plastic layers on which the illuminated image layer and the touch-sensitive layer are applied (since applying those to the glass layers runs the risk of those layers cracking, but not because the glass will crack, since it won't), but the plastic layers aren't the only ones in the screen, they're part of a sandwich of layers that together add up to the whole screen. The glass layers are there to provide rigidity, a more solid feel, optical flatness, and some crease reduction. The topmost plastic layer is there to provide at least partial protection for the glass layer under it from simple scratches that could weaken the glass. Unfortunately it's true that the plastic layers are what's mainly responsible for the crease that can get worse over time. Maybe that problem will be fixed over time with better plastic formulations.
Click to expand...
How does this “affect” in a positive way the customer? It will not bend at your fingernails pressure? The crease is not visible? I think this is a spec false hype for the normal people, facts never lie, the inner display remains more fragile than the outer one
 
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