Other Why the iPhone Fold will Fail

[Macalway]

How much money have they made? Also yes, other brands have been selling them for 8 generations now. The total percentage of the smartphone market globally that foldable smartphones have is 2%.

What would you expect with this cost? It's not a bulk order product.
This argument is getting old.

 

[Hajj.david]

Agree 100% AVP is a very niche product!

Know it very well - I was the one who started the AVP pre-order/delivery/ISP thread.

I returned my first gen AVP after a week when I found out it can't do simple things like sync with my iPhone (could not text, facetime, make calls, receive calls).

Having to remove the AVP from my face each time to make/take/SMS calls from my iPhone was ludicrous!

Won't really matter to you but the AVP fully syncs with your iphone now, you can totally text, facetime, make and recieve calls from the AVP and you can unlock your phone using optic ID without taking off your AVP.

 

[eyoungren]

Only Apple has the actual sales numbers, so only Apple will know if it's a success or failure.

The only reason I would care is if Apple decided that the fold was the only iDevice product they were going to sell from now on. But that, I predict is unlikely.

So, success or failure, it makes now difference to me. I am neither rooting for its success or its failure because neither one affects me.

I already own a few Apple products that I said to myself and others that I would never own.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

By letting Samsung go first and create the category years ago, Apple is not heading down an unknown path. The take rate on foldables, growing every year, is a known quantity.

The same was said about the AVP, and I knew it didn’t matter because the AVP would fail because it didn’t have much of a reason to exist.

BTW, the foldable smartphone market projections of growth are hinging on Apple’s Fold selling in certain numbers and sales of flip style foldables continuing… and we all know what I think will happen…

 

[Hajj.david]

I had the same discussions with people when I predicted the AVP would fail. The AVP didn’t even meet Apple’s internal, paltry sales expectations and then they scaled production back.

But it won’t matter where or even at what price the iPhone Fold will be sold at: it will fail because it’s a device that doesn’t have much of a reason to exist.

I regularly use ipads and iphones and cant comfortably take both. Now I have a product that can for cheaper than a phone + ipad, why wouldn't it sell. An oil company I work with distributes iPhones and iPads totalling over 3k for everything. They would save $1000 by just sending out ultras

 

[NotApplicable]

What would you expect with this cost? It's not a bulk order product.
This argument is getting old.

oops didn’t mean to quote this

The same was said about the AVP, and I knew it didn’t matter because the AVP would fail because it didn’t have much of a reason to exist.

BTW, the foldable smartphone market projections of growth are hinging on Apple’s Fold selling in certain numbers and sales of flip style foldables continuing… and we all know what I think will happen…

Foldables are north of 10% of Samsung’s total smartphone volume and increasing, before the Fold 8s. They’ve had to reallocate components and manufacturing capacity to the Fold 8s from future planned models because they are selling so much better than expected even after years of growth data to drive projections.

This isn’t a risky product category for Apple to enter. It’s one they absolutely have to. It would be negligent not to, because the sales are there for the taking.

Is it going to replace slabs? Of course not; that’s not even the point nor the goal.

 

[Macalway]

The only failure would be me having to wait months after this order tomorrow.

 

[Ludatyk]

But it won’t matter where or even at what price the iPhone Fold will be sold at: it will fail because it’s a device that doesn’t have much of a reason to exist.

You think it will fail because you have no interest. And I’m not quite understanding your logic on failure… you think that the Apple foldable should be a global leader in the phone industry? Or specifically in the foldable industry?

Because here in the states, I’d expect Apple to overtake Samsung/Moto in the foldable industry… would that be considered a success? Or you planning on moving the goal post.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

I regularly use ipads and iphones and cant comfortably take both. Now I have a product that can for cheaper than a phone + ipad, why wouldn't it sell. An oil company I work with distributes iPhones and iPads totalling over 3k for everything. They would save $1000 by just sending out ultras

The same reason convertible laptops failed… which is the same reason I’m talking about: it’s a worse device in many respects compared to its dedicated counter-parts.

 

[mistymac]

That's why I never owned an iPad - hate iPad OS; except from work where I had to use it, but now retired so I turned it back in. 👍

I have tried over and over to love an iPad for anything other than drawing. I'm just a Macintosh user at heart and find using the iPad as anything other than content consumption to be so fiddly. Its an excellent drawing tablet though so I understand the appeal for artists and young artists who only want one computer or its the computer they can afford etc.

Edit: Vision Pro died on the vine due to Apples lack of foresight or desire to spend money to entice developers. Games. Games are the only thing that have really taken off in this market and we all know how gun-shy Apple has been about trying to court the game industry. Meta and other companies headsets are what people buy, because they do not cost an arm and a leg and continue to improve upon the gaming experiences. I get what Apple envisioned, I'm sure its very neat and novel idea to do computer work through a headset... but its just unrealistic.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

You think it will fail because you have no interest. And I’m not quite understanding your logic on failure… you think that the Apple foldable should be a global leader in the phone industry? Or specifically in the foldable industry?

Because here in the states, I’d expect Apple to overtake Samsung/Moto in the foldable industry… would that be considered a success? Or you planning on moving the goal post.

Strawman. I never said it would fail because I have no interest. If you read my original post you would then know why I think it will fail. If you still don’t understand it, then I can’t help with that.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

oops didn’t mean to quote this



Foldables are north of 10% of Samsung’s total smartphone volume and increasing, before the Fold 8s. They’ve had to reallocate components and manufacturing capacity to the Fold 8s from future planned models because they are selling so much better than expected even after years of growth data to drive projections.

This isn’t a risky product category for Apple to enter. It’s one they absolutely have to. It would be negligent not to, because the sales are there for the taking.

Is it going to replace slabs? Of course not; that’s not even the point nor the goal.

Foldables are 2% marketshare globally of the smartphone market. We all know what I think of the future and projections. Anybody can project whatever they want.

Time will decide whether I am right or wrong.

 

[Spinarelo]

Global foldable smartphone marketshare after 7 years as a product category is still only 2%.

An echo-chamber of niche product users isn’t representative of success for Apple.

You could be right let’s see. I don’t have a dog in this fight, since I don’t have interest in a foldable myself.

 

[dmr727]

Apple is great at creating devices people want to be seen with - there are a lot of headphones that make more sense than the Airpods Max, yet that's what I see everywhere. If Apple can tap into that same thing with the Fold, it'll be successful even at $2500. The K shaped economy is a thing - people with money aren't hurting. If this thing is deemed 'cool', people will buy it in droves, especially with the monthly plans the various cellular carriers will eventually roll out.

I don't want one, but I think it'll be popular.

 

[Bkdodger]

Regardless of market share right now having all these different manufacturers in the segment should hopefully have a place in the market for foldable, here in the US we are talking only Samsung mainly for most people, but there are others with high praise around the world. I do know one thing and that is that I want for them to succeed. It’s all about choices and why not have more of them.

 

[henkie]

No attack - EVERYONE has their opinions.

I just hate people who will bash Apple devices based on what THEY expect versus what I expect.

Examples:

• iPhone Air was a huge success for ME.
• Macbook Neo (purchased 2) were a huge success for my wife and I who travels a lot.
• Mac Studio M5 base will be a huge improvement for ME.

As for the folding iPhone, I will wait and see if it has enough to sway me from my current folding phone (Google Pixel Pro Fold) used for business.

This is a forum…. AVP is a flop, even if you might like it. If somebody makes a painting thinking it will sell at an auction for 1 million but somebody buys it for 10k. It is a flop, even though the buyer might like it.

 

[ayephoner]

Apple is great at creating devices people want to be seen with - there are a lot of headphones that make more sense than the Airpods Max, yet that's what I see everywhere. If Apple can tap into that same thing with the Fold, it'll be successful even at $2500. The K shaped economy is a thing - people with money aren't hurting. If this thing is deemed 'cool', people will buy it in droves, especially with the monthly plans the various cellular carriers will eventually roll out.

I don't want one, but I think it'll be popular.

I think you could be right. There are a lot of people out there that buy the latest pro or pro max every year. There are also people that upgrade their airpods and/or apple watch every year (or two). People definitely make room in their budget for tech/entertainment.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Regardless of market share right now having all these different manufacturers in the segment should hopefully have a place in the market for foldable, here in the US we are talking only Samsung mainly for most people, but there are others with high praise around the world. I do know one thing and that is that I want for them to succeed. It’s all about choices and why not have more of them.

Having the choice of which lawn mower with wings to buy is great, I agree.

 

[Zensō]

I regularly use ipads and iphones and cant comfortably take both. Now I have a product that can for cheaper than a phone + ipad, why wouldn't it sell. An oil company I work with distributes iPhones and iPads totalling over 3k for everything. They would save $1000 by just sending out ultras

A folding phone doesn’t replace a 13” iPad Pro with a Magic Keyboard. An ipad Mini, maybe.

 

[Bkdodger]

Having the choice of which lawn mower with wings to buy is great, I agree.

There always has to be one with wings. It's a must

 

[jz0309]

No attack - EVERYONE has their opinions.

I just hate people who will bash Apple devices based on what THEY expect versus what I expect.

Examples:

• iPhone Air was a huge success for ME.
• Macbook Neo (purchased 2) were a huge success for my wife and I who travels a lot.
• Mac Studio M5 base will be a huge improvement for ME.

As for the folding iPhone, I will wait and see if it has enough to sway me from my current folding phone (Google Pixel Pro Fold) used for business.

So, WHY will it fail? You're not giving any reasons for that ...

 

[elvisimprsntr]

Will be too overpriced with the Apple
Tax. A solution looking for a problem.

 

[VPsmith]

No one is talking about how Day 1 app support will be non existent? Developers don’t even have these devices to test their apps on.. And how are apps going to support this? I can think of a ton of scenarios where apps just don’t stretch that way or the other. And what is the incentive for developers to update their apps to support this expensive class of device? Why would they care about 5% of iOS users using the fold?

 

[NeonNights]

I agree with OP on AVP and expected it to fail too, based purely on cost, but the foldable iPhone will be different. Apple tried to pioneer Spatial Computing and start an entirely new segment with AVP, and history is full of great tech hampered by high cost.

Foldable phones, however, have been around since 2019 and Apple is entering the market when foldables have matured to a point where they're just as thin and lighter than an iPhone Pro Max. Many folks buy the iPhone Pro Max because it's the biggest display Apple offers, and now there'll be an option for an even bigger screen that still fits in your pocket. That offers a lot of appeal.

Other thoughts:

1. Foldables actually utilize Ultra-Thin Glass with a plastic film screen protector. The inner screen on my current and past foldables feels great and I use it to write work meeting notes.

2. The hinge on modern foldables is remarkably solid. All of my foldables since the Fold4 have felt very solid and well-made. I don't baby my foldables and use them just like past slab phones and in all types of inclement weather and the beach.

3. Performance has been a non-issue because they come with flagship SoC with ample memory, and the software is optimized to make the foldable experience shine.

4. My past Fold 4, 5, and 6 were easy to use one-handed, even at Costco while pushing a cart. Heck, I've even unfolded my 10-inch TriFold while pushing the cart. The balanced weight helps a lot. My iPhone 12 Pro Max was actually harder to one-hand and always wanted to tip out of my hand because it was so top-heavy.

I expect the iPhone Ultra, or whatever it will be called, to really drive the foldable market and increase mainstream adoption. It is more expensive but the cost is easily managed through trade-ins, people selling their iPad mini, and installment plans. I just hope Apple updates iOS to take full advantage of the foldable features and experience.

 

[Mousse]

No attack - EVERYONE has their opinions.

The corollary goes, "And they all stink"

Samsung has already shown that foldable phones has a niche. I doubt it will be a roaring success, but it will do well enough that Apple will continue to develop more pholdables©.