Other Why the iPhone Fold will Fail

[comptr]

OP posted these exact arguments last year, predicting Apple would never enter the foldable market. Now that Apple’s launch is imminent, doubling down on the same flawed logic doesn't make it any more accurate.

Reasonable people adjust their perspective when presented with valid counterarguments.

In 2025, there were over 20 million foldables sold. This is an established market and it's increasing by double digits every year.

Bingo. I would agree with what you said.

 

[Daniel Alvarez Arribas]

One undeniable benefit of the foldable is that it could become the ultimate selfie machine. Open, with its outside display, and its main cameras both facing the user...

This may be a fringe benefit for many. But it may gain a foothold with the very visible Instagram folks just for this reason.

That, and as a fairly lightweight commuting/travel companion that still allows watching the occasional movie while not having to lug around a second larger device, or worry about it getting stolen.

 

[JPack]

What's flawed about the logic?

You’re focused strictly on the downsides without crediting any upside.

Labeling foldables as "compromised" misses the mark. By that reasoning, an iPhone Pro Max is compromised because it's just as thick and heavy as a dual-screen device without giving you the extra display.

Somehow, people will happily buy both an iPhone and an iPad, but somehow reject a single device that does the work of both.

 

[Zensō]

You no doubt consider the whole foldable market at niche.

At under 2% of the total market, foldables absolutely qualify as “niche”. As to whether that remains true in the future is anyone’s guess.

 

[bbeagle]

Somehow, people will happily buy both an iPhone and an iPad, but somehow reject a single device that does the work of both.

My iPhone is portable, I use it on the go. My iPad is not as portable, I use it at home for the larger screen.

I've never been given the opportunity to have both in a single device, so I haven't had a chance to 'reject' it or 'accept' it yet.

 

[erikkfi]

I don't know. People seem to loooove high-priced iPhones. So far, the higher-priced, the better. What other company can say their most expensive product in their mainstream product line is consistently the most popular SKU? Apple is testing whether their customers have price sensitivity for iPhones and I don't think we really know.

 

[JPack]

My iPhone is portable, I use it on the go. My iPad is not as portable, I use it at home for the larger screen.

I've never been given the opportunity to have both in a single device, so I haven't had a chance to 'reject' it or 'accept' it yet.

The real magic of the iPhone Ultra is that it delivers a huge screen while maintaining (or even reducing) the volumetric size of the Pro Max.

If you like the display real estate of an iPad, you'll probably love the foldable iPhone.

The biggest barrier by far is price. Concerns about screen creases or a dual-camera setup are just noise.

 

[Jumpthesnark]

An echo-chamber of niche product users isn’t representative of success for Apple.

OP wasn't getting the traffic they expected from the clickbait thread, so they doubled down and started attacking those who might disagree too. 🤣

Whatever makes you happy. Buy one, don't buy one, no one cares. But don't pretend to know the future. If you did, you'd be a Lotto billionaire by now.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

You’re focused strictly on the downsides without crediting any upside.

Labeling foldables as "compromised" misses the mark. By that reasoning, an iPhone Pro Max is compromised because it's just as thick and heavy as a dual-screen device without giving you the extra display.

Somehow, people will happily buy both an iPhone and an iPad, but somehow reject a single device that does the work of both.

That isn't flawed logic. My focus is on what I think and predict will be the fatal issues with the product and its category. There is nothing I see that can address what I have put forward as fundamental issues. The iPhone Pro Max does not have functions that compromise its design like a foldable. You are asking someone to buy a lawnmower with wings and you expect they will, but you don't explain why.

 

[NeonNights]

You are part of the niche, and my prediction is that it will be a product category that remains niche. And it won't all come down to software at all, it comes down to one simple thing: whether people will choose to buy a device that is worse at its functions compared to its dedicated counterparts. And my prediction is that most people will not choose to buy it. The market currently agrees with me: total foldable smartphone marketshare globally is 2% of the overall smartphone market.

At under 2% of the total market, foldables absolutely qualify as “niche”. As to whether that remains true in the future is anyone’s guess.

Ask yourself why Apple sees potential in entering that 2%? That 2% still represents 25+ million units annually, and growing. Hybrids and EVs were also once 2% of the market and that changed in short time. Why so strongly against progress when you're not forced to buy a foldable anything?

Face it, phone makers can't continue to enlarge existing slab designs. The iPhone Pro Max is already unwieldy and poorly balanced in the hand. Foldables allow a larger screen in a smaller and lighter footprint. If you're not the target demographic then slab options are still available. But it's nice to have a foldable in the lineup.

The iPhone Pro Max won't need to get any bigger from this point on because the foldable iPhone can take over. And in time, the foldable iPhone can add back the telephoto lens and maybe Apple can work FaceID back in too. At least it gives Apple something to work on since innovation has stagnated on slab iPhones.

 

[bbeagle]

So far, the higher-priced, the better. What other company can say their most expensive product in their mainstream product line is consistently the most popular SKU?

The most expensive iPhone is the iPhone Max 2TB for $1999. Less than 1% of iPhone users choose this model.

 

[robertosh]

What means failing? I don’t think Apple is expecting this to be a mainstream product, as the OP said is just a niche product. On the other hand, they MUST offer an alternative against the other foldable models around. I think that the target should be outsell Samsung and other foldables, which I think that they will succeed. Failure/Success should be measured against other foldables, not against regular smartphones.

 

[0423MAC]

I think it will sell well as there is enough history to suggest that there is strong market demand for it at this point.

I doubt I will ever get one as I don't:
watch widescreen videos on my phone, it's almost all content that displays better vertically
play much games on my phone and when I do, again it is games that I can pick up and play quickly...vertically
do much productivity on my phone as I rather have a much bigger screen on a laptop or iMac at home

Considering I don't do those three things I fail to see how this will work for me. Could I theoretically have two safari tabs or windows side by side and work similar to how I do on my iMac? Sure, but again why am I not doing this on the iMac or MacBook? I don't do that work on the road at all.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

It is not a replacement for someone's phone.

It literally is. It is literally a replacement for someone’s current phone.
Unless someone plans on carrying around two separate phones, it’s an iPhone, that happens to fold, that people will use instead of an iPhone, that does not fold.
The vision pro was not a replacement for anything, it couldn’t replace a Mac, it couldn’t replace an iPhone, and it wasn’t even close to the same thing as a tablet.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

At under 2% of the total market, foldables absolutely qualify as “niche”. As to whether that remains true in the future is anyone’s guess.

Niche in terms of smartphones, absolutely, but in terms of all products put together? That’s a lot harder to say.
Are gaming consoles niche? There’s an expected amount of gaming consoles to be sold this year, right around 33 million. Compare that to an expected 30 million folding phones, and it doesn’t look so niche in comparison.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

I don't know. People seem to loooove high-priced iPhones. So far, the higher-priced, the better. What other company can say their most expensive product in their mainstream product line is consistently the most popular SKU? Apple is testing whether their customers have price sensitivity for iPhones and I don't think we really know.

I think this is absolutely something that a lot of people are not taking into account.
Especially when comparing this device to something like the iPhone Air or iPhone mini.
Those devices did not fail because they were beaten by cheaper, more accessible options. The opposite, in fact.
The year that the iPhone 12 mini existed, the best selling iPhone was… The 12 Pro Max. The following year, the best selling iPhone was the iPhone 13.
These are both significantly more expensive iPhones than either of the minis.
So we have seen that when users are given a cheaper $700 option, they will still opt for the $800 or $1200 option.
We have never seen Apple do the opposite, release an iPhone that sits above the rest of the lineup, at least not since the iPhone X. And just in case anyone has forgotten, the iPhone X was a runaway success.

 

[RealKeishav]

I think it will succeed like iPhone X

 

[Daniel Alvarez Arribas]

How much money have they made? Also yes, other brands have been selling them for 8 generations now. The total percentage of the smartphone market globally that foldable smartphones have is 2%.

There is some wisdom in that. However, these numbers can be quite misleading whichever way you look at them. A key reason for the low percentage is that the total market share of high-end smartphones ($1000+ US) is no more than some 10% of unit sales anyway. Under $500 US is where 70% of the unit sales are. Most smartphones are fairly inexpensive devices and those just do not comprise foldables. In the $1000+ US market, foldables right now make up about 10-15% unit sales. At $1500+ US you are looking at some 40%. Conversely, to a large extent this is due to the fact that foldables are more expensive, so they naturally end up comprising large percentages at the top-end where apart from foldables you only find terabyte iPhone Pros and things like diamond-plated curiosity phones. Either way, such percentages do not carry much meaning as to what the total addressable market is.

As per Counterpoint Research, total cumulative foldable sales are approaching 100 million devices globally, and growing. This is without Apple ever having offered such a device. So what they are seeing is other brands in that category making money unopposed, and trends going up. One key risk is high-value customers switching ecosystems due to an entire category of devices not being offered. Also, the book form factor plays directly into the whole Apple shtick of "Living at the intersection of liberal arts and tech". So if Apple launches a mini occasionally, and an Air, they may as well launch a foldable.

One detail that suggests this may be beneficial is that the terabyte iPhone Pro will likely appeal to media creators (cameras, sturdiness, battery), while the Apple foldable will likely appeal to media consumers (large screen size, unwieldiness, less sturdy hinge, less cameras). So realistically, in the upper price segment, the Apple foldable will probably eat up more market share of competing foldables than cannibalize terabyte iPhone Pros.

Nobody knows how this will play out though. Apple may as well launch with some hinge-gate or screen-gate issue, or simply price themselves out of any reasonable success.

 

[Zensō]

Niche in terms of smartphones, absolutely, but in terms of all products put together? That’s a lot harder to say.
Are gaming consoles niche? There’s an expected amount of gaming consoles to be sold this year, right around 33 million. Compare that to an expected 30 million folding phones, and it doesn’t look so niche in comparison.

We’re talking about smartphones, so…

 

[Steve686]

Yes, I know people will jump on this and flame me. But this is a prediction and we will see if I am right or wrong over time.

I predicted the AVP would fail because it was obvious: it was worse at many things compared to other device types like smartphones and laptops and desktops. That it didn’t have much of a reason to exist.

Same too for the Fold. It is worse at several things compared to non-folding smartphones, laptops, desktops… and doesn’t have much of a reason to exist.

• Unfolded or folded, the Fold has seams since effectively 2 slabs are sandwiched onto each other and with a hinge. It will always therefore be design compromised compared to a non-folding smartphone.
• Because of the folding capability, and this is a big deal, it has to have a PLASTIC SCREEN. Plastic is noticeably inferior to glass from an optics standpoint, including reflections, and it will have a crease. And over time, we can see that the crease gets more pronounced with other Foldables. So on this, it will have a worse screen than non-folding products like an iPhone or MacBook or iPad.
• Fragility and processing power: it will be more fragile because they have to make each slab as thin as possible and there is a hinge, which is subject to breaking and failure. And the thermals suffer which can compromise performance.
• Very few use cases: the Fold turns into a tablet… but people buy and use non-folding smartphones precisely because of its form-factor: pocketable, one handed use, simple interfaces in software, etc. They aren’t asking for something to turn into a tablet, it doesn’t fit the use cases. And the stats support people not wanting Folds: Foldable smartphones after several years on the market still only have less than 5% of the total smartphone marketshare.

You don’t and won’t see people standing in line at a grocery store with one basket of food in one hand and an unfolded smartphone in the other hand. One handed device use is one of the main use cases of non-folding smartphones.

And for people who also like and want a tablet, it comes down to the problem of the fold being inferior across a set of things to a non-folding iPad.

I don’t see, therefore, how an iPhone Fold can be successful for Apple. Will some people buy it? Yes. How is failure defined? For Apple, it would be not leading in marketshare in the category and not capturing enough customers to make it a viable category to continue developing. Apple needs relatively large markets and scale, and that is not going to happen with the Fold is my prediction.

Go ahead and attack me, and for anyone wanting this device on day 1, that’s great. I don’t think foldables will not exist, but a device that doesn’t have much of a reason to exist is nothing more than a niche market device at best.

Ok.

Someone will post that the iPhone foldable phone will succeed.

I guess one of you two will win the coin flip.

 

[thelion7]

My prediction is that as long as it can be financed, it won’t fail.

I’m either way on this.

I don’t want it to fail and if it succeeds it won’t affect me as I can’t justify the price and I have an iPad Air so not much of a use case.

But call me a cynic but it’s very convenient that Apple upgrade launched around a month before the fold, new iPhones and all of the other Apple Products that will inevitably be more expensive when they launch.

I’m confident that a lot of people will probably want this phone.

But not many will want to part with the money upfront, even if they could.

In this economy, liquid cash is becoming more vital than ever.

Apple know this and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was the Vision Pro that taught them this lesson.

 

[Corefile]

These things will cost $2,999 so will dramatically separate the posh folk from the great unwashed. It will become an iconic must have given how unique it is. This will make Apple an absolute fortune.

 

[Luftkopf]

Yes, I know people will jump on this and flame me. But this is a prediction and we will see if I am right or wrong over time.

I predicted the AVP would fail because it was obvious: it was worse at many things compared to other device types like smartphones and laptops and desktops. That it didn’t have much of a reason to exist.

Same too for the Fold. It is worse at several things compared to non-folding smartphones, laptops, desktops… and doesn’t have much of a reason to exist.

• Unfolded or folded, the Fold has seams since effectively 2 slabs are sandwiched onto each other and with a hinge. It will always therefore be design compromised compared to a non-folding smartphone.
• Because of the folding capability, and this is a big deal, it has to have a PLASTIC SCREEN. Plastic is noticeably inferior to glass from an optics standpoint, including reflections, and it will have a crease. And over time, we can see that the crease gets more pronounced with other Foldables. So on this, it will have a worse screen than non-folding products like an iPhone or MacBook or iPad.
• Fragility and processing power: it will be more fragile because they have to make each slab as thin as possible and there is a hinge, which is subject to breaking and failure. And the thermals suffer which can compromise performance.
• Very few use cases: the Fold turns into a tablet… but people buy and use non-folding smartphones precisely because of its form-factor: pocketable, one handed use, simple interfaces in software, etc. They aren’t asking for something to turn into a tablet, it doesn’t fit the use cases. And the stats support people not wanting Folds: Foldable smartphones after several years on the market still only have less than 5% of the total smartphone marketshare.

You don’t and won’t see people standing in line at a grocery store with one basket of food in one hand and an unfolded smartphone in the other hand. One handed device use is one of the main use cases of non-folding smartphones.

And for people who also like and want a tablet, it comes down to the problem of the fold being inferior across a set of things to a non-folding iPad.

I don’t see, therefore, how an iPhone Fold can be successful for Apple. Will some people buy it? Yes. How is failure defined? For Apple, it would be not leading in marketshare in the category and not capturing enough customers to make it a viable category to continue developing. Apple needs relatively large markets and scale, and that is not going to happen with the Fold is my prediction.

Go ahead and attack me, and for anyone wanting this device on day 1, that’s great. I don’t think foldables will not exist, but a device that doesn’t have much of a reason to exist is nothing more than a niche market device at best.

Just a minor pedantic correction, but the inner screen will evidently be a sandwich of plastic with ultra thin glass on the inside and outside of it. Whether they manage to make it feel better than the awfully plasticky, cheap feeling inner displays of all the other folding phones, I don’t know.

This whole discussion comes down to how everyone defines success. It’s the top of the range product, with an eye watering price tag, in a cooling economy. I expect there will be an initial surge as pent-up demand gets satisfied, but will settle down into its niche.

Longer term, I expect they will die out before the slab phone does.

 

[darthaddie]

Is this post just an attempt to discourage others so OP get can get it on day one? 🤣

 

[comptr]

Is this post just an attempt to discourage others so OP get can get it on day one? 🤣

I wonder...if the OP is trying to buy a few extra to sell on eBay...🤣