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Welcome back caveman!
We had something call iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch since you left, just want to keep you update.

I noticed in another discussion he indicated he doesn't have a mobile phone, only a land line... So cut caveman some slack. ;-)

The watch market — smart or "dumb" — is simply not as big as the phone market.

If the AW gets bought by five percent of iPhone owners, I would consider it to be a success. Not enough people these days are wearing watches that cost more than fifty bucks anyway.

(and besides, 5% of what, a hundred million compatible iPhones, is still a hell of a lot of sales)

I agree with this... Though I would think they might get 10%. I think a lot of people bashing watch sales are dillusional in their expectations. You have to own an iPhone to use the watch. So by definition the market is a fraction of iPhone sales. So it's impossible for it to sell in "iPhone numbers".
 
We all know that the Apple Watch isn't selling in iPhone numbers, but by all intents and purposes it is selling well compared to the rest of the market. There is no way that Apple will reduce the price of the AW before Gen2 arrives. Then I do forsee then reducing the entry cost significantly (as much as $100 less). What they will probably do though, is reduce the Sport models to $249 and $299 ($100 less than the new v2.0 Sport models). They will also discontinue the Stainless Steel and Solid Gold models for v1 as may even use the same form factor for these models to implement the new circuitry.

I still believe we are talking an 18-24 month cycle for the Watch, so we are talking fall 2016 at the earliest, but possibly Spring 2017.

Although they won't reduce the main RRP of the models, what they may do is introduce a financing model or reduce the cost of some of the bands.

Agree in some respects.

The refresh will happen in the Spring again to take advantage of graduations. Watches are probably given more than any other gift at that time. And Apple was late to market with gen 1, so unless gen 2 is suffering the same issues, it will still be on track for what would have been a Fall 2015 release.

The gen 1 watch will drop $100 in price across the board, including the stainless models, but not the Edition. However, the band selection will be far more limited. Assuming the gen 2 watch bands will work on the gen 1, then that makes it easy to offer base models (maybe the sport band and classic buckle only) with the others available for purchase.

Gen 2 prices will not drop from this season.

Apple will effect the price drop by promo/sales such as the current $50 off with purchase of iPhone.
 
$250-$299 is the sweet spot for a lot of products. iPod didn't really explode until the mini and nano prices came along. iPhone took off once it got down to $199. I think Apple Watch is a hard sell above $300.
 
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