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Will Vision Pro be a success
- Thread starter tomtad
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I'm going to need a more quantifiable criteria if I'm going to bother voting in a poll like this.
Without a time machine there is no way to be certain, we could speculate all day and still be wrong.
Yeah are we talking the first year, in general, etc.
After a few generations and with cheaper prices it's a whole different scenario.
It will be a success but not in the way the peanut gallery would classify it.
This is a prototype device to get the market started, get developers to experiment with, and see what apps come out of it. I don't believe apple expect to ship millions of these; they can't produce enough screens for that anyway even if people wanted to buy that many at this price (Heart that the manufacturing capacity for the screens in it is 200k/yr, so that's 100k units, tops).
This is not the version that consumers will buy en-masse.
Some will look at that and consider it a failure.
They're missing the point. Cheap crappy consumer VR stuff already exists. Don't get me wrong, I own a quest2 and its good for what it is, but it isn't a unit capable of showing the world what AR can really do due to the cost-based limitations associated with it.
The Vision Pro will do this, at a high price point. The price will come down with later models over time. The form factor will get smaller and more comfortable over time. But we'll never get there without the first step.
This is a prototype device to get the market started, get developers to experiment with, and see what apps come out of it. I don't believe apple expect to ship millions of these; they can't produce enough screens for that anyway even if people wanted to buy that many at this price (Heart that the manufacturing capacity for the screens in it is 200k/yr, so that's 100k units, tops).
This is not the version that consumers will buy en-masse.
Some will look at that and consider it a failure.
They're missing the point. Cheap crappy consumer VR stuff already exists. Don't get me wrong, I own a quest2 and its good for what it is, but it isn't a unit capable of showing the world what AR can really do due to the cost-based limitations associated with it.
The Vision Pro will do this, at a high price point. The price will come down with later models over time. The form factor will get smaller and more comfortable over time. But we'll never get there without the first step.
If the first generation isn't at least a moderate success, we may not even see a few generations, at least not consecutively.
People often like to bring up comparisons with 3D TVs. I don't think consumer VR/AR will ever go away as completely as 3D TVs did. It's already stuck around for longer. And tens of millions of people have bought VR headsets. Tens of millions of people didn't necessarily buy 3D TVs, they bought TVs that happened to be able to also be capable of playing 3D content.
There's no way in hell (IMO) that Apple would sink that much time and energy into a product and not try to refine it with further generations.
Still not sure how it’s supposed to get cheaper in the future when you consider the tech involved. Maybe if it’s a hit and production scales they could get it closer to MacBook Pro prices.
I think its success will depend on the extent to which it can be an indispensable part of any consumer's personal Apple ecosystem, and (potentially) replace other Apple products. Millions of people have bought VR headsets, but I wonder how many of them use them regularly or say, received one for Christmas, tested it out and thought it was cool, and now it mostly sits on the shelf in the box. They still sold, sure, but it's not moving the product beyond the "gimmick" level. I don't think the Vision Pro needs to be "the next iPhone" to be successful, but it can't just be a cool toy to play with. It has to be able to do some of what existing Apple products do, but better.
Study up on Clayton Christensen's "Jobs to be Done" philosophy of product development. It's world-changing. And it explains why Apple of Yore was so successful.
Judging the Vision Pro from that standpoint, I will not at all be surprised if it's a dud.
Judging the Vision Pro from that standpoint, I will not at all be surprised if it's a dud.
I think it will be moderately successful, but just like with the iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch, the second generation will be better, more focused, and gain mainstream adoption. The first-gen Apple Vision Pro will be an opportunity for Apple to discover what people actually use it for. Arguably, it's somewhat comparable in this regard to the first iPad (which was not too well received initially, even though its price was much lower than expected).
Different feature sets. Perhaps a non-Pro “Apple Vision” has more mass appeal.
Nobody but fanboys and people with available debt to rack up to show off are going to buy this junk. Nobody wants dystopian daddy recording a special moment with dystopiaVision on …watching through a display. It’s a product in search of a problem. If it is a success….we as a society are doomed. I personally hope it takes Tim down and puts Apple in a financial position that forces them to work harder for their money instead of coasting on whatever this has been. With the problems we have in society the last thing we need is this device creating even more isolation. It’s time reflect on what our tech has done to us.
Excellent comment. This is a Mercedes Maybach class machine, not a Mercedes A class. It sets a quality goal, with state of the art hardware. It exists so developers can get started, with the apps making this fly -or crash-. People complain about the price, but have a look at other high end VR/AR glasses and you’ll realize this tech is very expensive.
This is a moon shot…
It can be a financial dud but a technological success, pathing the way for subsequent versions that actually sell.
I can see this going the way of the Apple Watch:
Vision Pro 1, 2, 3 will be rough betas (just like how the Watch Series 0, 1, and 2 were very rough).
Vision Pro 4 will be the first unit that actually is a good value for most people, and would stay on the market for a very long time (like how Apple Watch Series 3 was).
Vision Pro 5, 6, 7, etc., will be gradual updates that won't have any immediate "gotta upgrade to the newest version" changes.
Vision Pro 1, 2, 3 will be rough betas (just like how the Watch Series 0, 1, and 2 were very rough).
Vision Pro 4 will be the first unit that actually is a good value for most people, and would stay on the market for a very long time (like how Apple Watch Series 3 was).
Vision Pro 5, 6, 7, etc., will be gradual updates that won't have any immediate "gotta upgrade to the newest version" changes.
I think it’ll be a really nice piece of hardware that sells very few units but the people who buy it will never shut up about it. Probably a dud compared to any other recent Apple product, but a success if it were to come from any other company.
I still don’t see any mainstream appeal for this until it gets a lot cheaper and smaller. In its current iteration, it’s too obtrusive for what it does and too awkward for anyone but people who live and work alone.
Is that considered a dud? Probably. I dunno. Even Apples weaker products tend to be somewhat successful thanks to the borrowed cred of the iPhone and the Mac, and the brand in general.
I still don’t see any mainstream appeal for this until it gets a lot cheaper and smaller. In its current iteration, it’s too obtrusive for what it does and too awkward for anyone but people who live and work alone.
Is that considered a dud? Probably. I dunno. Even Apples weaker products tend to be somewhat successful thanks to the borrowed cred of the iPhone and the Mac, and the brand in general.
The first computers were house sized, cost millions of dollars and had less power than an Apple Pencil by several orders of magnitude.
Tech gets cheaper.
Pretty much exactly how this will play out.
This is exactly like an Apple Watch S0 moment. Expensive, limited functionality, hasn't really found a target market yet.
But no market will adopt it without software development, and no software development can happen without hardware.
v3 or v4 will be when this actually starts to take off for the masses.
It probably won’t. Looking at Mac and iPhone, they good better with time but basically retained their prices
Since 2017 Apple has rarely adjusted their prices. I don’t see them changing that.
Why do you think no one can afford this without going into debt?
And this won’t isolate people any more than our other devices already do. While using it, the user can see the world and others can see the user’s eyes—digitally, but all the information should be there. So isolation will just be an option via the Digital Crown. It will however make people look funny, but people eventually get used to anything. And it’s content that is addictive and isolates, not screens and devices themselves. Devices, like any tools, have a propensity for neither good nor evil. Content however is a different story.
Also I think you’re imagining people wearing this around. This is used very much like iPads and laptops, not phones, in specific times and places. And these are personal devices used by one person at a time, most often for personal tasks, not shared. And especially for work isolation is actually needed, so this can help people be more productive. It’s just a tool.
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No but the tech quality for the price has improved significantly. That MacBook Air you buy this year is massively more powerful than the original. It's also cheaper than the original too, especially adjusted for inflation.
The Vision Pro in its final form (i.e., light-weight glasses wirelessly connected to an iPad or iPhone for processing) will likely replace a laptop or computer for some people when it is fully developed.
That said, there will be a consumer version of this tech at around half the price inside 5 years.
AVP 1?
Neither an outright failure nor a runaway success.
I suspect it will also mirror my own adoption of the Apple Watch.
When S0 was released I could vaguely see the potential, but was not interested in buying one.
A couple years later I tried the S4, returned it…
Tried again with S6, returned it…
Then an S8, which I also returned…
Finally in December 2023 I bought a Ultra 2.
I am not returning it.
It took that long for the Apple Watch to finally become something I find useful as well as feeling like a mature product.
Here on MacRumours whenever I voice concern about the Apple Vision I am treated like some luddite with no "vision".
That's not the point. Some of us just don't jump on the first tech that comes along. We like our tech, like good cheese and wine to mature.
Apple Vision V3 or V4 is where I think I am going to be interested in.
Especially if it does allow me to be digitally creative in a more immersive way than my current setup of a Mac, Studio Display and a Wacom tablet / Kamvas Pro 16.
All I hear right now is well, you'll be able to move things / draw brush strokes with your eyes. Really? Really? That is pure bull****.
The software will make or break this.
Apple cannot just sit back and expect 3rd party developers to do the heavy lifting for them though.
Neither an outright failure nor a runaway success.
I definitely agree with this.
I suspect it will also mirror my own adoption of the Apple Watch.
When S0 was released I could vaguely see the potential, but was not interested in buying one.
A couple years later I tried the S4, returned it…
Tried again with S6, returned it…
Then an S8, which I also returned…
Finally in December 2023 I bought a Ultra 2.
I am not returning it.
It took that long for the Apple Watch to finally become something I find useful as well as feeling like a mature product.
Here on MacRumours whenever I voice concern about the Apple Vision I am treated like some luddite with no "vision".
That's not the point. Some of us just don't jump on the first tech that comes along. We like our tech, like good cheese and wine to mature.
Apple Vision V3 or V4 is where I think I am going to be interested in.
Especially if it does allow me to be digitally creative in a more immersive way than my current setup of a Mac, Studio Display and a Wacom tablet / Kamvas Pro 16.
All I hear right now is well, you'll be able to move things / draw brush strokes with your eyes. Really? Really? That is pure bull****.
The software will make or break this.
Apple cannot just sit back and expect 3rd party developers to do the heavy lifting for them though.
Definitely.
This will NOT be a thing for everyone on release, and unfortunately it seems that way too many people are expecting that to be the case.
This will be the same with the iPad, same with the Watch, same with much of the tech apple releases. They were all niche tech preview devices until a few versions in.
Your viewpoint on this probably depends a lot on whether you're a pragmatist or a dreamer type.
Me? I'm interested in it from a technological progress (dreamer) aspect and can see that once fully baked it will be a revolutionary piece of gear and enable people to get away from their desk and go back to doing real things in the real world with real computing power at hand, even pro-actively helping you by analysing what you are looking at and overlaying relevant information.
But it's going to be YEARS before we get there, this is only a very first baby step. it will be large, heavy, expensive, crap battery life, etc. But it will enable interested people to play with something real and envision new ways of working, especially if a future version of the device is cheaper/faster/smaller/better/etc. Any pragmatist type who is expecting the Vision Pro to be a really useful device on day one is going to be massively disappointed.
The tech will get there eventually and will adapt to software demands. But without some actual working hardware out there for people (especially hobbyist developers) to play with, no software will get made for it.
I'm not sure Apple even knew that the watch was going to be such a core fitness device for so many people before the software team started doing real clever things with the sensors on the original devices. They later leaned into that with more hardware capabilities in later devices.
Software drives hardware and vice versa.