Will Vision Pro be a success

[klasma]

This will be the same with the iPad […] They were all niche tech preview devices until a few versions in.

I disagree. I bought my father the 1st-gen iPad in 2010. It was his first real contact with the internet (he never had any interest in computers, too complicated), and he then used it virtually every day to look up things on the internet, organize his photos, reading and writing email, and so on. In 2020 he got an iPad Air, but only because the iOS 5 (?) Safari and low RAM of the 1st-gen iPad started to cause problems with websites. The Vision Pro will not be like that.

 

[arkitect]

This is why you get pushback. Who CARES if somebody wants to speculate about the possibilities of this product? Who cares if they want to dream? That it motivates you to use language like "that is pure bull***" over somebody's joy at imagining something new and innovative, even if it's not there and not perfect on day 1, says much more about you then it does about them. People imagine. Dream. Speculate. It's harmless. You don't need to take it personally. That you have a different metric on value than they do doesn't make you right or them wrong. Your skepticism is no more founded on reality than their dreaming.

*sigh*
I knew it would get you going.
Have a good day. 👋

 

[ForkHandles]

It’s an amazing piece of tech for sure. But crucially it doesn’t solve a problem. Smart phones solved problems, tablets solved problems, AirPods, laptops, solved problems.

Vision Pro allows people to see things in a cool funky medium, but it’s still not changing their productivity, it doesn’t allow them to achieve more, just different.

Hence it may be around for a while, but just like 3D TV and curved screens, it’s appeal will be limited.

 

[Reggaenald]

No but the tech quality for the price has improved significantly. That MacBook Air you buy this year is massively more powerful than the original. It's also cheaper than the original too, especially adjusted for inflation.

The Vision Pro in its final form (i.e., light-weight glasses wirelessly connected to an iPad or iPhone for processing) will likely replace a laptop or computer for some people when it is fully developed.

That said, there will be a consumer version of this tech at around half the price inside 5 years.

Yes, the current devices are better, for the same or a similar price than 7 years ago. But once apple has found a price sweetspot it will try to stay there. Yes, there will be a consumer version at a lower price, but it won’t stop sinking over time, it will hit an Apple minimum and stay there despite manufacturing cost or adoption. All I’m saying is it won’t get much cheaper over time. The MacBook Air isn’t a great example, instead look at the Apple Watch prices over time. Albeit added, the ultra in that case wasn’t the first version released, but the point still stands for consumer versions.

 

[VPsmith]

Vision Pro launch model? Nah... Vision Pro 5 ? You bet!

This device category will change the world once the hardware tech can catch up with peoples dreams

 

[VisceralRealist]

*sigh*

More "it's for developers" talk. That doesn't bode well for success and it also doesn't make much sense.

The first Watch didn't have a clear market at launch, that's true; it wasn't obvious that it was going to be the health device that it eventually turned into. But the first Watch wasn't prohibitively expensive and it wasn't aimed at developers. In fact, developers have largely ignored or pulled out of the Watch to the point that the Watch almost exclusively runs Apple's own apps today, more so than any other Apple device. Apple can't rely on developers to make the VP successful.

All the talk of "developers" just sounds like a way for potential low sales to be twisted into a good thing. "Well it doesn't matter that nobody bought it, as long as developers are making killer apps for it!" It does matter if people buy it, though. The first Watch and iPad were rough around the edges and didn't have a clear market yet, but they were still successful sellers. The VP will have to be too.

 

[erikkfi]

Apple will no doubt define the first generation as a success pretty much no matter what, especially since now it can get away with not even releasing specific sales figures. They will, in all likelihood, throw Vision Pro into the "wearables" category" where its impact on revenue can be obscured. Expect to hear meaningless phrases like "exceeded our expectations" during earnings calls.

Vision hardware will carry on into succeeding generations and multiple models and I expect it'll be around a decade from now. So whether you look at it somewhat cynically, as I do for the first-gen version, or more earnestly as I do for the long term, yes, it'll be a success.

 

[Timpetus]

I fail to see the problem it solves. Everything I've seen so far is a cool feature, isn't that neat, etc. but not something we couldn't do before with other tech. Sure, a wearable computer that can have virtual displays bigger than you can afford otherwise is cool if you live alone. For those who don't, it doesn't replace your TV as others can't see what you're watching on it. VR/AR tech still needs to improve to a point where it's invisible before it'll be useful to the average person, until then it'll remain a fun novelty that you might add to your other tech toys, but it won't replace any of them or become something you can't live without like your phone, watch, computer, or other daily driver devices.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

Will it be a success?
I think they’ll sell as many first generation VPs as they can make.
And I think that the product line has been worked on so long and had so much research and development money put into it that a second and third generation are pretty much inevitable.

Will it become as big as the iPhone, AirPods or Apple Watch? Probably not.

Could it eventually become more price competitive with apples laptops and higher end tablets, and eventually start to scoop away from that market? Yes, I think so.

Also, people forget, but a product like the Mac Studio doesn’t even sell in the millions yearly, and it’s still successful enough to be updated two years in a row.

Success for Apple does not always have to equal “as big as the iPhone”.

 

[Spock]

I don't think that this will be the break out product for the market like the iPod was for the MP3 player or the iPad was for the tablet. I think it will be like the Apple TV and the HomePod, not a failure but not as successful as other products.

 

[AlexESP]

It’s an amazing piece of tech for sure. But crucially it doesn’t solve a problem. Smart phones solved problems, tablets solved problems, AirPods, laptops, solved problems.

Vision Pro allows people to see things in a cool funky medium, but it’s still not changing their productivity, it doesn’t allow them to achieve more, just different.

Hence it may be around for a while, but just like 3D TV and curved screens, it’s appeal will be limited.

What problems did tablets solve that phones didn't? What problems did phones solve that computers didn't? New formats enable new and better experiences, it's not just about a bullet list (the famous "killer app"). Having a bigger screen, controlling the UI with your eyes, etc. can make a great difference, to change your productivity, allow you to achieve more...

 

[ForkHandles]

What problems did tablets solve that phones didn't? What problems did phones solve that computers didn't? New formats enable new and better experiences, it's not just about a bullet list (the famous "killer app"). Having a bigger screen, controlling the UI with your eyes, etc. can make a great difference, to change your productivity, allow you to achieve more...

An iPhone put the internet in your pocket, arguably for the first time, with a half decent UI. It made the internet change its language and design, to further help people solve their problems.

The iPad put a laptop in the lounge with and easy, turn on-/off game playing, movie watching, productivity winning form.

Vision Pro gives you a stunning experience in which you have to move your eyes, fingers and arms in order to get done that which quicker and with less physicality on a desktop.

It solves nothing , it makes it more of an effort to do n

 

[G5isAlive]

Here on MacRumours whenever I voice concern about the Apple Vision I am treated like some luddite with no "vision".
That's not the point. Some of us just don't jump on the first tech that comes along. We like our tech, like good cheese and wine to mature.

I think it's all how people phrase things. If they say 'AVP sucks and will be a flop', sure some people will roll their eyes. But if someone says, as you have, "I am not an early adopter but it could have potential if the software comes through. But right now the value isnt there for me.' Fine. No arguing with that.

But for those of us that are excited to see where these things are going, we are often called fanboys and put down for being pro apple.

Nope. I AM an early adopter because I have the cash to play with and I want to see where things are going. I got the Apple Watch S0. I knew it wasn't going to be the be all to end all. And it was slow, and a tad clunky, but I dont regret getting it at all. It did exactly what I wanted it to, gave me a glimpse into the future. And yep each iteration got better, but I am glad I didnt wait. that was the right decision for me.

Likewise, the first iPad was not the finished product we see today. It too had faults, a smallish screen, low Rez, a bit on the beefy side, big bezels, and was slow. I played a lot of solitaire on that thing, but it was there for me when sitting in the ICU with my mom, and months of chemotherapy with her, so yeah, right decision for me.

Oh, and yep, had the first iPhone too. Talk about unfinished! not even an App Store. Still, loved it.

Heck, I had the very first Mac back in the day. That was a great leap of faith at the time.

Even the HomePod... hard to call that a success like the Apple Watch and iPad, but hey, apple learned a LOT about audio which they put into their subsequent devices, and we all like that. Sometimes things are destined to be learning moments.

It's hard to say right now if the AVP is just going to be a learning moment, or something that leads to the future. I agree the software to make it a killer product is not there yet. May never be. It isn't even clear there is a compelling reason to get one if one is looking for a finished product to immediately be productive with. But for some of us, the glimpse of the future it will give us will absolutely be enough. We aren't Apple fanboys. We are early adopters.

As for me, I have to admit the price tag has me thinking twice. That IS a lot to pay just to have that glimpse of the future. I dont fly as often as I used to, or it would be a no brainer. On the other hand, life is too short not to play hard too. we shall see.

 

[AlexESP]

An iPhone put the internet in your pocket, arguably for the first time, with a half decent UI. It made the internet change its language and design, to further help people solve their problems.

The iPad put a laptop in the lounge with and easy, turn on-/off game playing, movie watching, productivity winning form.

Vision Pro gives you a stunning experience in which you have to move your eyes, fingers and arms in order to get done that which quicker and with less physicality on a desktop.

It solves nothing , it makes it more of an effort to do n

But you’re describing basically what I’m saying.

You could already have the internet in your pocket with a Blackberry, but the iPhone concept resulted in much better UX.

In theory, I could already do almost everything I do on my iPad on my Mac - but to me the iPad provides much better experience, so I tend to use it more than my Mac. Also I find it easier to be creative on it. Those are things you cannot explain in a specs sheet, only when you use it.

We still have to try Vision Pro, but I could potentially foresee the same scenario: things on a giant screen placed in your environment, with ”telepathic” eye control feel so much more natural and are so much more enjoyable that I don’t want to use an iPad or Mac anymore.

 

[BellSystem]

And then there is this nonsense, that gets repeated ad nauseam now on MR.

And then there is this nonsense, that gets repeated AD NAUSEAM now on MR.

 

[BellSystem]

Why do you think no one can afford this without going into debt?

And this won’t isolate people any more than our other devices already do. While using it, the user can see the world and others can see the user’s eyes—digitally, but all the information should be there. So isolation will just be an option via the Digital Crown. It will however make people look funny, but people eventually get used to anything. And it’s content that is addictive and isolates, not screens and devices themselves. Devices, like any tools, have a propensity for neither good nor evil. Content however is a different story.

Also I think you’re imagining people wearing this around. This is used very much like iPads and laptops, not phones, in specific times and places. And these are personal devices used by one person at a time, most often for personal tasks, not shared. And especially for work isolation is actually needed, so this can help people be more productive. It’s just a tool.

Because all the people with “money” really are debt rich. Today’s culture is but what you can’t afford. I’m sorry you don’t understand how this will be used. But you can buy one and be in your own dystopian nightmare.

 

[throAU]

I disagree. I bought my father the 1st-gen iPad in 2010. It was his first real contact with the internet (he never had any interest in computers, too complicated), and he then used it virtually every day to look up things on the internet, organize his photos, reading and writing email, and so on. In 2020 he got an iPad Air, but only because the iOS 5 (?) Safari and low RAM of the 1st-gen iPad started to cause problems with websites. The Vision Pro will not be like that.

You may have, but many people originally saw them as overpriced media consumption devices with no real value. "Why would I get one of these? I can do that on my laptop!".

I remember various friends poo-pooing it. I even put a calendar appointment in my calendar on the day of release +2 years to remind me about one of my fiends who was crapping on it. The appointment was "XXX now owns an iPad".

At that point when the calendar reminder popped up, he'd owned one for 6 months and loved it.

 

[throAU]

I fail to see the problem it solves. Everything I've seen so far is a cool feature, isn't that neat, etc. but not something we couldn't do before with other tech

OK, the vision for this device in +5 years:

• glasses (or much smaller goggles) form factor
• processing offloaded to a nearby companion device (iPad, MacBook, iPhone) via next generation high speed wireless connection (why do you think the iPhone is getting so many AR processing features?). This will massively reduce cost on the device you wear on your head.
• "all day" battery life
• comparable weight to a couple of apple watches

Think: something with 4-8 hour battery life, image recognition capability, high speed internet and mixed reality features.

• Doing a stocktake in your warehouse? look at the bar code, gesture to record it.
• Repairing a piece of equipment? Have the parts or repair procedure overlaid to the side of your view, accessible hands-free while you work on the device. Explode a 3d virtual copy of the thing to see how all the parts fit together and what it should look like
• Need help with the above repair? Have a friend/product expert remotely connect and literally see what you are looking at.
• Want to see what that piece of furniture looks like in your house? Download the 3d model from the sales website and place it in 3d space inside your home.
• Working on your MacBook (that you still need for increased processing power) and want more displays? Place a few in 3d space around you whilst working outside or in a cafe, or whatever.

Right now the tech isn't quite there for the high speed wireless connectivity for remote processing so it needs to be done on device. Which means larger more powerful components inside the headset and weaker battery life, larger form factor, higher cost, etc.

But that won't be the case forever.

 

[klasma]

You may have, but many people originally saw them as overpriced media consumption devices with no real value. "Why would I get one of these? I can do that on my laptop!".

My point is, I don’t see the average person get the value out of the Apple Vision Pro the way many did with the iPad. The 1st-gen was already a perfectly usable and very convenient every-day device. And the base model cost $499, quite affordable. It wasn’t a prototype-y expensive and somewhat awkward test balloon for tech enthusiasts like the AVP will be.

 

[throAU]

My point is, I don’t see the average person get the value out of the Apple Vision Pro the way many did with the iPad. The 1st-gen was already a perfectly usable and very convenient every-day device. And the base model cost $499, quite affordable. It wasn’t a prototype-y expensive and somewhat awkward test balloon for tech enthusiasts like the AVP will be.

It also wasn't as big of a paradigm shift in the way computing was done.

There were tablets before the iPad. Touch UIs existed before the iPad.

Sure, some VR hardware exists already, but none of it has committed to actually PUSHING the technology (rather than meeting a price point) as Vision Pro yet. And that's why VR/AR right now is still niche. Because nobody wants to take the risk to push hard and see what can actually be done without trying to meet such a low price point.

The tech in a high end VR headset (like Vision Pro) right now is not cheap to manufacture. It costs what it costs at the moment until availability of these components gets better.

 

[subjonas]

Vision Pro gives you a stunning experience in which you have to move your eyes, fingers and arms in order to get done that which quicker and with less physicality on a desktop.

I believe all navigation in Vision is done with your eyes, whereas on computer you use your arm to move the mouse.

 

[klasma]

It also wasn't as big of a paradigm shift in the way computing was done.

There were tablets before the iPad. Touch UIs existed before the iPad.

Sure, some VR hardware exists already, but none of it has committed to actually PUSHING the technology (rather than meeting a price point) as Vision Pro yet. And that's why VR/AR right now is still niche. Because nobody wants to take the risk to push hard and see what can actually be done without trying to meet such a low price point.

The tech in a high end VR headset (like Vision Pro) right now is not cheap to manufacture. It costs what it costs at the moment until availability of these components gets better.

You’re just confirming that it is quite a different product introduction from the iPad, which was my point.

 

[Tdude96]

You may have, but many people originally saw them as overpriced media consumption devices with no real value. "Why would I get one of these? I can do that on my laptop!".

I remember various friends poo-pooing it. I even put a calendar appointment in my calendar on the day of release +2 years to remind me about one of my fiends who was crapping on it. The appointment was "XXX now owns an iPad".

At that point when the calendar reminder popped up, he'd owned one for 6 months and loved it.

I've jumped on Apple tech before that I didn't really "need," and later found a use case or "can't live without" feature that makes it worthwhile for me. I finally got my first Apple Watch with the s4 and strongly considered returning it, because I found that I wasn't using it. I thought I'd constantly be interacting with it, but instead it just kind of faded into the background. But then I realized I wasn't touching my phone as much, sometimes not at all for hours at a time. Apple Watch gave me freedom from my phone, that's its biggest feature for me. A completely intangible thing that might sound crazy to people who don't have Apple Watch. That feature alone was worth the purchase price for me.

Other times I got a product and just couldn't fit it into my life. iPad is one of those. I couldn't think of a use for iPad in my daily life and didn't get one for many years. Eventually I thought I'd found a use case, but my first iPad wound up getting gifted to a friend after awhile. It took years and a laminated screen before I got to a place where iPad was a useful tool for me and something that actually sees usage.

Everyone's use cases are different, and sometimes people have uses for a technology that others simply don't value or understand. I suppose there will always be naysayers who seem to be unimaginative and can't even conceive that there are people with solid use cases for Vision Pro. They write it off as a toy for adult imagery and games without consideration for the actual possibilities it has in a range of academic, medical, professional, and entertainment applications. It's like they're waiting for Apple to come out and tell them the way they should use the device rather than giving it a chance. Personally I can count off a couple dozen uses for Vision Pro and ways to leverage the technology that will improve my productivity and quality of life. I don't need Apple to list every possible use case or (God forbid) show more creepy birthday party scenes that never should have gotten past the first focus group. I'd actually planned to get one, but had to rearrange some priorities for this year that will be of greater use for me. I'll have one by gen 2 or 3. This is an exciting technology for me, I can't wait to give it a go.

 

[257Loner]

OK, we're not far out from launch and I'm seeing a lot of arguments back and forth about Vision Pro. I think it's time we put it to poll.

What do we think. Will it be a success or a dud?

I don't know. Please don't ask me again.

 

[Allen_Wentz]

I'm going to need a more quantifiable criteria if I'm going to bother voting in a poll like this.

Yup. Silly question from the OP with "success" undefined. IMO the Newton was a success since it underpinned so much that came after. I will measure success for the AVP the same way a decade from now.

A lot of silly folks want to measure AVP success by immediate sales and that is very, very wrong. Apple is a $Trillion tech firm and new product development needs to be conceived as very long term.

P.S. I did not vote in the silly poll.