We disagree. I can see all kinds of ways AVP can evolve to allow folks to achieve more. Too bad you cannot.
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Will Vision Pro be a success
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With the difference that a modern Maybach at its core is just another car, meaning it can rely on a century of global car adoption, whereas the Vision Pro has a lot of pioneering to do. In that sense it may be more like Daimler and Maybach's 1892 luxury motor car - great quality in its day, but hopelessly clunky and outdated just a few years later.
I think Apple put already all over the table, and to be honest, I don't see this as a mainstream thing, even if they manage to shrink down the prices in the next versions ("low-cost" will be anyways expensive, it's Apple).
For me the main problem is that still lacks content to justify the purchase. I mean, from the interesting use cases (VR gaming, adult entertainment) Apple is clearly out. Even dedicated VR devices for gaming are struggling to succeed because lack of content.
For me watching movies/tv shows is more a social activity, and this device will kill that.
Regarding Spatial Computing, even if it is interesting, it will depend more on the developers, not on Apple, and developers are already tired of adapting apps for many type of devices. In their ad there were people in an office wearing those devices, that was ridiculous. I can see the use case for a content creator, techy freelance working at home, but even like that, one thing is to have windows floating around and other is to be productive. You need to interact with the apps, etc, and not sure how that will work in complex workflows.
I really think that it will be a great piece of tech, that probably will sell well initially because of the hype + enthusiasts combination, but I don't expect this to turn mainstream like other devices. I may be wrong of course!
For me the main problem is that still lacks content to justify the purchase. I mean, from the interesting use cases (VR gaming, adult entertainment) Apple is clearly out. Even dedicated VR devices for gaming are struggling to succeed because lack of content.
For me watching movies/tv shows is more a social activity, and this device will kill that.
Regarding Spatial Computing, even if it is interesting, it will depend more on the developers, not on Apple, and developers are already tired of adapting apps for many type of devices. In their ad there were people in an office wearing those devices, that was ridiculous. I can see the use case for a content creator, techy freelance working at home, but even like that, one thing is to have windows floating around and other is to be productive. You need to interact with the apps, etc, and not sure how that will work in complex workflows.
I really think that it will be a great piece of tech, that probably will sell well initially because of the hype + enthusiasts combination, but I don't expect this to turn mainstream like other devices. I may be wrong of course!
Nice one 😄👍🏼With the difference that a modern Maybach at its core is just another car, meaning it can rely on a century of global car adoption, whereas the Vision Pro has a lot of pioneering to do. In that sense it may be more like Daimler and Maybach's 1892 luxury motor car - great quality in its day, but hopelessly clunky and outdated just a few years later.
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A novelty toy for rich people and early adopters. With how immersive it is and how lifelike spatial videos look, it solves one problem better than anything else. There is a niche use case for such a device at the right price. Americans have a talent to turn irrelevancies into huge businesses, just take Facebook and Twitter for example. So I have no doubt that VR will be some kind of success. As long as you don't compare it to iPhone, iPad or Apple Watch.
I can see a great potential in “spacial computing” and Vision devices, once they get smaller, lighter and more affordable. Once Apple manages to reduce the gadget’s size to that of swimming goggles with the starting price tag of around 1K, this could be quite an interesting and useful product, possibly capable of replacing a computer and a tablet for quite a few people, I guess.
True. But they DO introduce various price points in a line from the almost affordable to the down right expensive....for example today I can buy a base model iPhone SE from apple for $429 all the way to a maxed out iPhone 15 Pro Max with 1 tb storage for $1599. That's almost a factor of 4x. We see even wider spreads in the Mac line up. Apple is calling this the Apple Vision Pro. If this line is successful, and we really wont know for 1 or 2 years, they will release an Apple Vision SE or equivalent. You are right the Pro will always cost > $3000. But the introductory model? Much lower.
So yeah, if the line is successful we will see lower prices.
The AW is perhaps not the best model for predicting the eventual adoption of the AVP. The AW was originally marketed, and it still is, as an extension of the iPhone. As such, a low price point makes sense. The close software connection to Apple makes sense as well. But you are wrong to assert that third party software, both on and off the watch, didn't have a huge impact on the AW eventual adoption as a health device. So third party developers did aid its acceptance. But the AW is still an extension of the phone. The AVP is from the start, something different all together. It is a standalone product (that can interface with other apple products in the same way my computer, iPad and iPhone all cooperate on some tasks.
Also, Apple is not releasing the AVP to just sell 400,000 units. That's not their goal. But you would be silly to think they won't sell all that they make. They are releasing it to start a new category of device to be part of our lives. And I think Apple does realize you need to start with developers. Sorry. And the developers wont just look at the 400,000 units as their target audience. They will get into this for the future. It just took one developer to come up with a spreadsheet idea that eventually became excel that eventually kicked off a huge growth in computer sales. Before that people saw them as interesting word processors. I think your idea that this 'developer talk' is designed to 'twist low sales into a good thing' does not take into account Apple's real goal.
But there is the concept of conformational bias that says we all see what we want to see. Maybe I am guilty of that. Maybe the nay sayers are. Time will tell.
It's highly unlikely it'll be a massive flop given Apple's place in the tech world nowadays. Now will it do big numbers, no it's a first gen product that's silly. But given time and future generations we'll see the Vision product lineup be a noticeable chunk of the Apple pie.
The bigger question is, how long do we have to wait for consumer models?
The bigger question is, how long do we have to wait for consumer models?
The 3rd gen will be a success. This will be a first (big) step in spatial computing, imagine 2 more years of AI development, integration with Siri, apps, etc. remembering that laptops were a “niche” years ago is helpful. I can’t wait to strap one on and have a productive zen work session in a flawless virtual office.
It’s gonna sell out immediately. I want it as bad as I wanted the first iPhone which is rare for anything these days. It won’t be a huge commercial success til the price comes down in a few years but it is definitely the future.
It might be in several years down the line. Until then, I think it runs the risk of being another 'Touch Bar' failure.
Just had another thought for comparison purposes.
The vision pro is going to be like the original MacBook Air.
Compromised - but within a few years, everyone else makes something similar. The air effectively launched the ultrabook category.
No one (correction: other than microsoft with HoloLens) has yet had the balls to build a high end VR/AR device because they aren't confident they'll get immediate ROI.
Apple are fortunate to be in the position of being able to burn money on it. So are microsoft, but it would appear they've given up with the HoloLens, at least with intel processors. Maybe they will try again when they start making their own ARM based CPU machines; the intel CPUs they were using for weren't really fit for purpose.
Apple or microsoft can afford to burn money on this segment for years until it matures. Smaller companies can not.
Microsoft took a shot without the hardware tech to back it up effectively. Lets see how apple do 3-5 years later with bespoke processors for it.
The vision pro is going to be like the original MacBook Air.
Compromised - but within a few years, everyone else makes something similar. The air effectively launched the ultrabook category.
No one (correction: other than microsoft with HoloLens) has yet had the balls to build a high end VR/AR device because they aren't confident they'll get immediate ROI.
Apple are fortunate to be in the position of being able to burn money on it. So are microsoft, but it would appear they've given up with the HoloLens, at least with intel processors. Maybe they will try again when they start making their own ARM based CPU machines; the intel CPUs they were using for weren't really fit for purpose.
Apple or microsoft can afford to burn money on this segment for years until it matures. Smaller companies can not.
Microsoft took a shot without the hardware tech to back it up effectively. Lets see how apple do 3-5 years later with bespoke processors for it.
Just for fun, I've been reading up about the history of American television. In the old days, from 1929 to 1941, television was used basically by nerds and scientists. They were hard to used, required complex parts (the audio part was usually a separate component, purchased and maintained separately), the video quality was absolutely terrible at about 100 lines, watching a TV show requires understanding complex radio frequencies and how to manually adjust a receiver, and was not a social activity with the tiny 3" screens with very few shows being aired. Show reviews were usually reviewed by on technical quality, and not on the artistic merits. I almost feel this is where AR/VR is currently at.
I wonder if Apple will AR/VR to the standards of 1941: very expensive, not a lot of content, for the rich, but far easier to use?
I wonder if Apple will AR/VR to the standards of 1941: very expensive, not a lot of content, for the rich, but far easier to use?
Should have had more choices for a brand new product then success vs dud, especially when a product popularity can change as consumers become more interested or not over time.
Did 8K TVs sell well at the start. Are they a success now? Yes it depends on what you're trying to achieve breaking into new markets. The Vision Pro is like that also.
Did 8K TVs sell well at the start. Are they a success now? Yes it depends on what you're trying to achieve breaking into new markets. The Vision Pro is like that also.
I don't think 8K TVs are a good example. Correct me if I'm wrong, but...
1. 8K TVs are just an incremental improvement to 4K TVs.
2. There's very little 8K material that exists to watch on these TVs.
3. 8K TVs can view shows that are for 4K, 1040i, and 480p, so even if there isn't any materials for 8K TV, if there are additional features that exist with an 8K TV, the TV is still usable.
The same minimal media availability can be Vision Pro Achille's heal also. If it came out a month from now, what software would you use other then the OS apps? That was why I brought up 8K comparison.
I suppose the question becomes "what's the *experience* given to using the Vision Pro compared to the competition?".The same minimal media availability can be Vision Pro Achille's heal also. If it came out a month from now, what software would you use other then the OS apps? That was why I brought up 8K comparison.
If the experience of using the Vision Pro is just like using an iPad (for example), then there's no reason for the Vision Pro to exist. But what if the Vision Pro gives us multiple virtual iPad screens of 55" resolution, and allows information to be dragged and dropped between the virtual screens? Or what if it allows us to experience memories, such as playing back ultra high resolution videos of our children when they were young?
I don't know
I know I need to use the Vision Pro myself to experience it. Being a "first mover" also isn't a position that Apple (usually) puts itself in, and being a first mover usually doesn't work out well for companies (see, for example, The de Havilland DH.106 Comet for jets, or The Concorde for supersonic flight, or the DuMont Television Network for network television in the USA).
I'm really curious what the Vision Pro is, and what's Apple's plans are. I know I will not buy one until at least the 3rd version, since that version will be the first one that's almost completely made with feedback from consumers.
Speaking of other vendors from Sony at CES 2024
Sony's Newest Mixed Reality Headset Is an Apple Vision Pro Competitor for Business
Hands-on: It has a Qualcomm chip inside and a unique ring accessory. We took it for a spin at CES 2024.
www.cnet.com
4.3K resolution each eye. This is a Siemens-Sony collaboration using a Qualcomm chip as described in the below article:
Qualcomm's New VR Chip Gives More Power to Apple Vision Pro Competitors
Google and Samsung's mixed reality headset could get a boost from a new Qualcomm chip enabling more cameras and sensors, 4K video and fast connections with laptops, tablets and phones.
www.cnet.com
Apparently the race is just getting started with Vision Pro
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The chipset supports up to 4.3K resolution per eye (whatever that means when the aspect ratio isn't 16:9). I don't think they've specifically announced any device that runs at that resolution, but I could be wrong about that.Speaking of other vendors from Sony at CES 2024
Sony's Newest Mixed Reality Headset Is an Apple Vision Pro Competitor for Business
Hands-on: It has a Qualcomm chip inside and a unique ring accessory. We took it for a spin at CES 2024.
4.3K resolution each eye. This is a Siemens-Sony collaboration using a Qualcomm chip as described in the below article:
Qualcomm's New VR Chip Gives More Power to Apple Vision Pro Competitors
Google and Samsung's mixed reality headset could get a boost from a new Qualcomm chip enabling more cameras and sensors, 4K video and fast connections with laptops, tablets and phones.
Apparently the race is just getting started with Vision Pro
The Sony headset is targeted at businesses, but for most business use cases that involve any sort of 3D design/visualization, a headset connected to a PC will probably be a better option.
yeah, I get the feeling the Job to be Done here is to be a straw for Cook to drink Zuck's milkshake.
If Meta hadn't been going balls deep on trying to make the metaverse happen for the past few years the AVP would not be a thing.
Apple will engineer "sell out success" with v1 by making less units than the market demands but it wont be until v4 or v5 (if it gets that far) will be when mainstream appeal arrives, and decent competition in the market around v9 - but sales will be low in comparison to Mac/iPad.
