Apple has to catch up on several years of advancement in folding phone technology when they eventually release their own. You can do only so much with prototypes that are not used by the average consumer.
Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
World's Thinnest Foldable Phone Launches in Europe and Asia
- Thread starter MacRumors
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
Everyone's a hater until Apple does it. Then all of a sudden its magical and epic.
Possibly because it sucks until Apple does it right.
The current hinge designs are trash anyway so a fresh start couldn’t hurt.
iPhones are usually supported for 5-6 years at least and if the marketing of the iPhone SE is to be believed, there are still people using the iPhone 11 (a device that is more than 6 years old at this point).
This longevity is in part due to the materials used in the construction of the iPhone. Do we have any conclusive data on the longevity of the flexible display? From what I am seeing, lines start appearing as early as a year in, and I suspect these folding phones don’t really have a lifespan beyond 2-3 years.
This to me is the biggest issue preventing Apple from jumping on the foldables bandwagon. Not so much that it will cannibalise sales of existing devices, but that its main selling point is also its greatest point of failure.
I don't think that's the question. The question is whether people wish they could fold their iPad Mini into something that fits in their pocket. I imagine yes, there are people who would like that.
Last edited:
Apple had no problem selling Macbooks with known failure plagued display flex cables. It has 0 to do with durability and everything to do with loss of sales.
Never once did anyone ask how poor you are. There are lots of people who aren’t poor, who would buy this solution in a heartbeat.
While the general outward appearance of iPhones has remained the same, that doesn't mean that the internals have evolved tremendously, both in hardware and software. That familiarity from one generation to the next that has made the iPhone so successful.
People said the same thing about big iPhones back when “no one wants a phablet - only Samsung is doing that because they need more space for batteries”. Instead Apple was taking its time like they always do.
I think it’s considerably more likely they don’t like the compromise of the crease and are working to solve it or as @Abazigal mentioned, have concerns about longevity, or something to that effect.
Apple had shown no qualms about cannibalization in the past and don’t think they’re about to start now.
It isn’t exactly about selling fewer devices, it about reduced income. And the obvious Apple solution is to price their foldable product high enough such that the income from a single unit is more than the income they would have derived from selling a iPhone Pro and an iPad mini.
I was more thinking about their decision making around what capabilities or not to give to iPads/iPadOS vs Macs, etc
But, yes point taken
This is why we don’t have a foldable iPhone that unfolds and works as an iPad. Steve would have done it in a heartbeat. Steve didn’t care about cannibalizing Apple’s own products. Tim on the other hand cares about the money too much. Tim will not bring out one device that replaces two. Tim can’t do it. Not in his ethos. His whole thing is either for himself or the shareholders (of which he is a large one).
I tend to agree, but @surferfb above not so much and I don't have any data supporting my "feeling". My memory isn't what it was on some of this
@surferfb Do you have an example of cannibalization Apple has done under Tim that comes to mind?
(not calling you out at all -- just thought maybe you had an example that was top of mind?)
Last edited:
I’ll hopefully be proven wrong, but the bendy portion of the screen is essentially a moving part, and all moving parts wear or fatigue. So, unless there’s some miracle, I never foresee a robust folding screen that’s not slightly lumpy and/or visibly different over time. Just don’t see that happening. Especially as someone who uses their phone for more than three years.
There is a market for tablet?
I switched from iPhone to Samsung Fold 4 and I cannot go back to Apple unless they make a foldable!
(Having ecosystem problem because I have a Macbook Pro, Vision Pro, Airpod pro, Apple Card, and an iPad but it is that GOOD!)
I mean, not to the extent of “iPhone cannibalizes iPod”, but one could argue the 16e is a prime example at a smaller scale - I don’t see why a “regular user” would buy a 16 now. Also things like larger screen iPhones came out after the iPad mini.
But ultimately, I suspect Apple could sell more “foldable phones that turn into a iPad mini” at a price of say $1500-$2000 than they could sell iPhones + iPads. Apple sells ~50m iPads a year and over 230m iPhones a year. I have absolutely no data to back this up, but I suspect there are a lot more “just iPhone” users who could be persuaded to buy a more expensive iPhone that turns into an iPad than there are people who will be dissuaded from buying an iPad because they have a foldable iPhone. I also suspect the average foldable iPhone would get upgraded more frequently than the average iPad, but again - absolutely no hard data, just going off of “feels”.
i agree.
Steve had no issue releasing a iphone which cannibalised the market for the ipod, or releasing an ipad the cannibalises the market for the macbook.
The things timmy has introduced, watch, airpods, vision pro, atv+, are all completely new market segments with little overlap with old stuff. You'd argue that they're a safe move that doesn't rock the existing boat.
Let's not forget the gold standard example ... the iPod Nano supplanting the wildly popular iPod Mini
So after thinking about this more I’m convinced Apple is actually leaving money on the table by not releasing a foldable phone and “cannibalizing” the iPad. Let me try to put some numbers to it.
I buy an iPad every 5 years or so. If I’m spending $1500 on an iPad Pro that’s $300 a year. I’m on the iPhone upgrade program because I’m stupid and hate money - and currently buy a $1400 phone every year ($60 a month - ProMax baby!).
If that turns into a $2000 foldable phone (and let’s be honest, it’s probably going to be that expensive) Apple is breaking even on me not buying iPads anymore even if I switch to upgrading my phone every two years (600+600+300). And let’s be honest, I know me well enough to know it’s just an extra $25/month so I’ll probably upgrade every year still. I suspect a lot of MacRumors posters are like me - and this is a very profitable segment for Apple.
And that’s on a very expensive iPad that actually is the one that is least likely to be cannibalized. They break even on a $600 base iPad Air being “cannibalized” the second I buy the foldable and actually make more money from me than my current iPhone+iPad Mini. And some people will still buy iPads and foldables. And some people will upgrade from non-ProMax phones, making the return even more quickly.
I suspect Apple will easily make more money from people buying more expensive phones than they would have otherwise than they’ll lose in iPad sales from cannibalization.
I also expect Apple knows this, because they have actual data and probably really accurate models for iPhone and iPad consume behavior; the fact that they haven’t released a foldable phone is because they really want to get it right - a lesser company would have popped one out ASAP to start capturing that revenue.
I buy an iPad every 5 years or so. If I’m spending $1500 on an iPad Pro that’s $300 a year. I’m on the iPhone upgrade program because I’m stupid and hate money - and currently buy a $1400 phone every year ($60 a month - ProMax baby!).
If that turns into a $2000 foldable phone (and let’s be honest, it’s probably going to be that expensive) Apple is breaking even on me not buying iPads anymore even if I switch to upgrading my phone every two years (600+600+300). And let’s be honest, I know me well enough to know it’s just an extra $25/month so I’ll probably upgrade every year still. I suspect a lot of MacRumors posters are like me - and this is a very profitable segment for Apple.
And that’s on a very expensive iPad that actually is the one that is least likely to be cannibalized. They break even on a $600 base iPad Air being “cannibalized” the second I buy the foldable and actually make more money from me than my current iPhone+iPad Mini. And some people will still buy iPads and foldables. And some people will upgrade from non-ProMax phones, making the return even more quickly.
I suspect Apple will easily make more money from people buying more expensive phones than they would have otherwise than they’ll lose in iPad sales from cannibalization.
I also expect Apple knows this, because they have actual data and probably really accurate models for iPhone and iPad consume behavior; the fact that they haven’t released a foldable phone is because they really want to get it right - a lesser company would have popped one out ASAP to start capturing that revenue.
Last edited:
Couldn't disagree more. I think the problem the companies who sells phones are trying to solve by selling phones with a huge point of failure in the middle (or two!) is pretty obvious!
They're leaving money on the table when you factor in two things. Foldables are going to be more expensive; and foldables break far quicker than standard phones.
Apple don't just compete with android phones, they compete against old iphones that are being sold second hand. Phones are lasting 5-6+ years which is bad for repeat business. Apple releasing folding phones that break after 2 years means more people having to buy new.
That's exactly right. People are complaining about the aspect ratio and I'm sitting here thinking it's perfect for reading! I'd love to have my Mini and iPhone be one device. The first company that gets the folded thickness down to iPhone levels and can convince me there's some semblance of longevity in the hinge will get my money (and that could be Apple, we'll see).