0.55% figure misleading

[marksman]

All I've seen you do is make pointless attacks at people. The line between transitory troll and longtime fanboy is indeed a blurry one.

I am pretty sure the only definition of an Apple fanboy these days is someone who has a broken iPhone 4 and was too stupid to ever call Apple about it.

That is some really fanaticism. Keeping a phone you say is broken and not even calling the people who made it for help, let alone return it.

So we know who the most rabid Apple fanboys are. The ones complaining the loudest and claiming their phones don't work.

 

[Eso]

I am pretty sure that if we do a count or maybe a general survey just at macrumours, we can come up with our own percentage of people with issues !

We did - it was on the front page.

It was geographically consistently that about 60% of users voted as having reception issues. You may claim it is skewed one way or the other, but it probably evens out. Of course, then you have to consider that what is considered a "reception issue" is subjective - if you don't get five bars? if you don't drop any calls?

Either way, I would say the informal poll is much closer to reality than Apples' inappropriate figure of 0.55%.

 

[kuaiyouming]

.

 

[wovel]

Oh, it's true, and it's not the only instance of such "density" in terms of returns.

Go to an Apple Store if there's one in your area and just watch how many people return 'em, and have been doing so since it was released. And watch how many people focus primarily on if the phone actually works or not with respect to the demo models on display.

None of the people I know that have owned an iPhone 4 bothered to "call AppleCare" because it wouldn't have done them one damned bit of good... just like it didn't for that mythical .55% either.

How ironic...

I was in an Apple store for an hour today and not a single person returned an iPhone 4. 1 Person failed to make the signal drop with an attempted death grip. More than 10 people came in asking when more phones would be available.

If I went to the Apple store tomorrow, the same thing would happen.

We did - it was on the front page.

It was geographically consistently that about 60% of users voted as having reception issues. You may claim it is skewed one way or the other, but it probably evens out. Of course, then you have to consider that what is considered a "reception issue" is subjective - if you don't get five bars? if you don't drop any calls?

Either way, I would say the informal poll is much closer to reality than Apples' inappropriate figure of 0.55%.

Really? You think that a poll on a web page is closer to reality? Since there is a significant chance that most of the people responding do not even own an iPhone 4..

Let me explain this so anyone can understand:..
For fun, let's just estimate that 10% of users with problems will actually report them to Apple, and 1 in 5 users will call Apple Care (the other 4 will visit the Genius bar or the Apple Support forum). Do you think those numbers are fair? If not, feel free to estimate your own and get back to me.

To calculate the number of iPhone 4 affected, we have:

X * Y * Z = 10 * 5 * 0.0055 = 27.5% of iPhone 4s have the reception issue.

Apple is trying to convince you that 0.55% of iPhone 4 users are having reception problems. What they are really reporting is that 0.55% of iPhone 4 users have problems, take the time to report them to Apple, specifically calling Apple Care to do so.

Do you have any integrity whatsoever? Bury your "estimated" in the text and then bold your absolute statement. It is clear you have no training in customer support, statistics, math, or ethics.

 

[jb1280]

We did - it was on the front page.

It was geographically consistently that about 60% of users voted as having reception issues. You may claim it is skewed one way or the other, but it probably evens out. Of course, then you have to consider that what is considered a "reception issue" is subjective - if you don't get five bars? if you don't drop any calls?

Either way, I would say the informal poll is much closer to reality than Apples' inappropriate figure of 0.55%.

In what dreamland do you live in that you can honestly say that an informal poll on the Internet where anonymous people can participate in is closer to reality than the number provided by the company based on the number of people who actually contacted them?

How do you account for people voting that they have signal loss that don't have a phone?

How do you account for people voting that they have signal loss but doesn't impact their day-to-day usage to the point they have a problem with it?

How do you account for the fact that people who have issues are more likely to participate in such a poll than those who don't have issues?

If there's a number that's even more useless than the one Apple provided, it's the number you are referring to.

Time will tell, now that the official response is out there we will see if there are lines of people outside the Apple stores waiting to return their phone or if there are lines around stores waiting for the next wave of releases around the world.

If 30 September comes around and Apple comes out with a press release saying they have sold the 8 millionth iPhone 4, have distributed 8 million cases, the number of AppleCare calls is at 1% concerning the antenna, and that there have been fewer returns than the iPhone 3GS after 90 days, the story is dead.

If 30 September comes around and there are still lines of people camped outside of Apple stores to return their phones, that there are no supply constrains, and Apple continues to get panned in the media, then there are a lot of people who have been waiting for the official response.

 

[ChrisJSNh]

the biggest problem i see with the numbers of .55% and 1.7% is they are partial stats.

.55 % called apple care,, well that number obviously excludes how many people called at&t blaming at&t's network. ( if first called at&t figuring they were making network changes for it)


1.7% return rate through at&t ,, obviously doesn't include how many returned to apple (those you ordered via apples site etc.)

i am glad i returned both my iphone 4's and have my 3gs back active.

what i noticed is Jobs didnt say total calls to at&t and apple were xx% or total phones returned to both at&t and apple were xx%

he stated calls to apple and returns to at&t ,, great smoke and mirrors

 

[bruinsrme]

At 3 million phones, 1% is a 30k so a half % is around 15k.
Honestly I don't think apple would have taken the time to address an issue if it wasn't bigger than .55%.
Any company would kill for a 99.45% yield rate at the point of sale, even apple.
Why do they only think 20k phones are affected, what was changed in the production. Why offer 3 million bumpers/cases for only 20k units that have or may have an issue.
The reason is there were no changes in the production units, all of them are affected (locale may play into it ) and the wait an see game didn't pan out like they hoped it would.
From an nonissue to free bumpers and cases for all.
Perhaps someone knew something hence the lag of cases from companies like incase and others in supporting the ip4

 

[Eso]

Do you have any integrity whatsoever? Bury your "estimated" in the text and then bold your absolute statement. It is clear you have no training in customer support, statistics, math, or ethics.

At least as much integrity as Apple

"Burying" estimations (of which I fully disclose and invite you to evaluate) isn't an issue for anyone who reads the post.

Why would I need training in customer support to do math? If I have no training in statistics or math, why don't you point out where my calculations are wrong? You make yourself sound like a buffoon.

Really? You think that a poll on a web page is closer to reality?

In what dreamland do you live in that you can honestly say that an informal poll on the Internet where anonymous people can participate in is closer to reality than the number provided by the company based on the number of people who actually contacted them?

Of the two figures, the poll is the only number with the correct units anyways. Technically, that means the number given by the poll is the only one actually estimating the percentage of affected users. So no matter what the poll says (even if it was 100%), it's still closer to reality than the irrelevant number Apple gave us. I'll make it easy again:

Meaningful unit: "iPhone with issue" / "total iPhones"

Meaningless unit: "calls about reception" / "total iPhones"

One unit is a measure of the percentage of iPhone 4 users with reception issues. This was measured by the poll. The other is a pretty worthless comparison meant to confuse people into thinking it measuring the percentage of iPhone 4 users with reception issues.

Oh, and by the way, compared to my estimation, the poll indicts that roughly half of users reporting issues actually had any. Even if you pretend Apple's figure of 0.55% was actually the percentage of users affected, it's off by a factor of 50. If you knew anything about statistics, you would understand that the probability of being incorrect by a factor of 2 is much, much greater than the probability of being incorrect by a factor of 50.

What that means in lay terms is that it is more much likely that the reality is closer to 60% than it is to 0.55%.

 

[eawmp1]

At 3 million phone 1% is a 30k so a half % is around 15k.
Honestly I don't think apple would have taken the time to address an issue if it wasn't bigger than .55%.
Any company would kill for a 99.45% yield rate at the point of sale, even apple.
Why do they only think 20k phones are affected, what was changed in the production. Why offer 3 million bumpers/cases for only 20k units that have or may have an issue.
The reason is there were no changes in the production units, all of them are affected (locale may play into it ) and the wait an see game did pan out like they hoped it would.
From an nonissue to free bumpers and cases for all.
Perhaps someone knew something hence the lag of cases from companies like incase and others in supporting the ip4

This isn't about true numbers, it's about perception and responding to an avalanche of increasingly bad press.

A company who wants to be around for the long haul responds to 0.55% if it means preserving the image.

 

[marksman]

Eso you are really bad with numbers.

 

[jb1280]

At least as much integrity as Apple

"Burying" estimations (of which I fully disclose and invite you to evaluate) isn't an issue for anyone who reads the post.

Why would I need training in customer support to do math? If I have no training in statistics or math, why don't you point out where my calculations are wrong? You make yourself sound like a buffoon.





Of the two figures, the poll is the only number with the correct units anyways. Technically, that means the number given by the poll is the only one actually estimating the percentage of affected users. So no matter what the poll says (even if it was 100%), it's still closer to reality than the irrelevant number Apple gave us. I'll make it easy again:

Meaningful unit: "iPhone with issue" / "total iPhones"

Meaningless unit: "calls about reception" / "total iPhones"

One unit is a measure of the percentage of iPhone 4 users with reception issues. This was measured by the poll. The other is a pretty worthless comparison meant to confuse people into thinking it measuring the percentage of iPhone 4 users with reception issues.

Oh, and by the way, compared to my estimation, the poll indicts that roughly half of users reporting issues actually had any. Even if you pretend Apple's figure of 0.55% was actually the percentage of users affected, it's off by a factor of 50. If you knew anything about statistics, you would understand that the probability of being incorrect by a factor of 2 is much, much greater than the probability of being incorrect by a factor of 50.

What that means in lay terms is that it is more much likely that the reality is closer to 60% than it is to 0.55%.

Apple has basically conceded that if you take any iPhone 4 and hold it in a certain manner that there is going to be attenuation.

The issue is not iPhone with issue qua issue, but how many iPhones are out there that consumers have felt the need to contact the company that manufacturers the phone because of the issue.

First, can you admit that the veracity of the macrumors poll is rather weak due to the question asked and the fact that there is no way to verify the truthfulness of the responders?

Second, if your claim that closer to 60% of users have fundamental issues with the phone is true, where are the online petitions with hundreds of thousands of signatures. That is a huge number considering that over 3 million have been sold.

Yes, it is an issue, nobody is denying that, but with all due respect if it is between accepting a number that has a bit of spin in it relying on data that involves real people with serial numbers, presented by the CEO of a company that is held accountable by its shareholders, customers, and federal regulators; and a number based on a questionable question using questionable methods relying on unverified votes by anonymous people on the Internet, spun by an anonymous person on a forum, until the next round of numbers come out, Apple's are more reputable.

 

[kuaiyouming]

.

 

[Eso]

Eso you are really bad with numbers.

Oh, Ok

I think that's your cue to exit this thread quietly (unless of course you want to reply to this post with an equally ill-witted "no u").

AThe issue is not iPhone with issue qua issue, but how many iPhones are out there that consumers have felt the need to contact the company that manufacturers the phone because of the issue.

You make a good point. It's not solely the number of people with reception issues, but how many of those feel the reception issue is significant. It seems most people around here that have the issue don't care because they don't experience it in normal use or just use a case anyways. A few more are probably annoyed by the issue but won't return the phone because of it.

First, can you admit that the veracity of the macrumors poll is rather weak due to the question asked and the fact that there is no way to verify the truthfulness of the responders?

Of course. If it is off by as much as a factor of 2, it's completely useless (especially when it's split 60/40). But it's still orders of magnitude closer of an estimation than Apple's figure.

Second, if your claim that closer to 60% of users have fundamental issues with the phone is true, where are the online petitions with hundreds of thousands of signatures. That is a huge number considering that over 3 million have been sold.

It's probably related to the point you made above that only a portion of users who have the issue are really concerned about it. I would still argue that 0.55% is a severe underestimation of iPhone 4 users bothered by the reception issue because Apple didn't include Genius Bar visits nor did they try to estimate the fraction of people that will actually report it.

 

[kuaiyouming]

.

 

[jb1280]

My final point and some concessions. Apple has every reason and its in their interest to cherry pick numbers that they feel best makes their argument. Apple conceded that every iPhone 4 has this issue, but that a very small number of people have thought it is important enough to call Apple about the issue.

It is only correct to assume that the number of actual people with major issues is higher than what Apple is presenting for whatever reason, but I don't think it fundamentally changes the issue.

Just to be clear, I don't think Apple's numbers are anywhere close to perfect but they are the best that we have.

This jives with how the story has been covered in the media. There are over 3 million of these devices out there that have been sold to the most demanding consumers in the world. We don't see images of people lining outside ATT or Apple Genius bars waiting to return their phone. There is no headline on Macrumors.com stating that over 100,000,000 people have signed petitions rallying against iPhone 4.

 

[slippery-pete]

OK. Much less returned the phone, so how do you explain that? Seems to go hand-in-hand with the 0.55% stat.

Yup, thinking the same

 

[solarein]

OK. Much less returned the phone, so how do you explain that? Seems to go hand-in-hand with the 0.55% stat.

30 days aren't up yet, people waiting to see what they do to fix the situation before returning, since they have time to wait.

 

[djeternal]

All of the data that Jobs presented today is tainted and misleading in one form or another. Truthfully, all of it is invalid propaganda. It was just twisted to support Jobs' and Apple's preconceived notions that no antenna problem exists.

The biggest problem with the .55% is that it only considers calls made to AppleCare. How about calls to AT&T? How about electronic complaints and requests sent to Apple and AT&T? How about the (deleted) discussions posted on Apple and AT&T's own forums? How about all of the blog articles, message board posts, video demonstrations, and related comments on the internet? Hmm, now the complaint rate is some 1000 to 10000 times higher than reported.

From what I understand, the technical issue calls to AT&T are actually attached to AppleCare (reported to AppleCare).

As far as the 'net based complaints, even though some of them are legit, it is hard for any company, let alone Apple, to take things from 'unofficial' sources and start using them as data. Any company would not use such data to calculate issue based ratios.

Once Consumer Reports came out with their report, I think that is when things pushed Apple in making press conference.

 

[nickspohn]

AppleCare = not regular Apple support.

I have audio proof of a call i have partially recorded, where the guy on the phone himself admitted that over every other caller was calling about signal problems.

The info they announced at the meeting was way below the actual figure. It's pretty obvious. AppleCare is not 611 for AT&T. Retail returns at AT&T stores are inaccurate. Over 1.6 million people bought from an Apple store before AT&T had them at their store. How come Apple didn't share that figure?

 

[tivoboy]

1 call only

The reason apple MIGHT only have registered only 1 CALL from ME was because THREE of my other calls dropped before I got to an agent. I touched the phone wrong.

 

[Peterson8765]

I think Apple was just trying to back up the problem of the iPhone 4's antenna.

 

[bushbaby]

Originally Posted by -aggie-
You're not sharing concerns and this forum hasn't really been a discussion forum for weeks.

All I've seen you do is make pointless attacks at people. The line between transitory troll and longtime fanboy is indeed a blurry one.

Applause. Thank you, kuaiyouming!

It really makes you wonder, doesn't it? Those of us with iPhone 4s who are having issues with the phone (beyond just the connectivity) have a good reason to be here on these threads, sharing info and trying to see who else has the problem with their phone. How has it been resolved, etc. And of course there are threads for those who love their phone and who have been lucky enough to get a good one with no other problems. Fine.

So then why are they so obnoxious on all the threads, even coming in on ones where we're trying to solve our faulty iPhone problems? I can only guess they are stockholders and think by trying to make it appear as if there are hardly any problems with the 4, then they won't be losing money on paper.

Because otherwise, I can't see why they'd want to spend their time here on these kinds of threads when they don't have a problem to solve.
__________________

I'm curious what the return rate will be after 30 days after launch weekend. I highly doubt Apple will share that.

I think a lot of people are waiting to see.

.

+1

I've asked this a few times but since I'm a redundant SOB here we go once again:

Is it more likely that Apple has produced a 'perfect product' (even in spite of Jobs' claims today at the press conference that he and Apple aren't) and never made a mistake anywhere from concept to finished product, or is it more likely that not one but a whole bunch of mistakes were made and discovered too late to really change the basic design of the iPhone 4 and so Apple went ahead and put it on the market as is hoping to "fix it after the fact"?

It's either one or the other, but I'm leaning towards a whole bunch of mistakes personally.

Today's press conference was a sympathy move:

"Oh poor us, we may have made some mistakes (that's not an admission of anything, just speculation that we might have made a mistake someplace, mind you), but after 34 years of loving us because we love you, don't you think we deserve some credit this one time we screwed up and the whole world is passing judgment instead of all the other times? Pretty please?

Ok, pretty please with a Bumper on top?"

You've got it right.

All of the data that Jobs presented today is tainted and misleading in one form or another. Truthfully, all of it is invalid propaganda. It was just twisted to support Jobs' and Apple's preconceived notions that no antenna problem exists.

The biggest problem with the .55% is that it only considers calls made to AppleCare. How about calls to AT&T? How about electronic complaints and requests sent to Apple and AT&T? How about the (deleted) discussions posted on Apple and AT&T's own forums? How about all of the blog articles, message board posts, video demonstrations, and related comments on the internet? Hmm, now the complaint rate is some 1000 to 10000 times higher than reported.

Yup. And maybe that's why we have such vocal and often rude posters defending Apple because they are trying to make more noise to make their group seem bigger than it is. There are a lot of people who haven't even tested all the features of their 4 and don't even know yet about potential problems.

As I posted earlier, I called to discuss problems with the phone, but did not talk to Applecare.

He has millions of reasons to lie; they're called "iPhone 4," each and every one of 'em.

Hmmm... actually, make that 10's of millions because we just now (well, with that "excuse" from Apple last week) get the info that every iPhone ever made from day one in 2007 is/was/still is defective because of the signal reporting issue...

No reason to lie, that's cute.

I am glad we still have a free press. It was a pleasure to listen to the radio today and hear the tech guy say what many of us here are saying about the 4 and about that press conference.