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People aren't going to shell out heaps of money to upgrade to another iPad if they are unhappy...

Owners of Apple products have in the past have in the past :D. Besides in any case, those iPad owners aren't currently shelling out any money because they have no reason to upgrade.
 
Owners of Apple products have in the past have in the past :D. Besides in any case, those iPad owners aren't currently shelling out any money because they have no reason to upgrade.

Apple has only ever left one iPad unsupported (iPad 1) and there weren't many people using it when it lost support, and even then there was anger and many brand swappers.

Apple needs to treat iPads like they treat Macs - long software support cycles, as people are treating their iPads as devices they do not replace regularly.
 
Dropping around 70 percent of their iPad customers would be a poor move (though that number will be lower by then).

Fragmentation is when you've got your user base across multiple different versions of software - the reason Apple doesn't have massive fragmentation is because they continue support for devices that hold large market shares. Dropping A6 devices in iOS 10 (Assuming there are still a lot of people on A6 deices) would just make fragmentation worse.
They don't have massive fragmentation, but it's still more than it used to be.

Dropping support for previous specs and software may not indeed be fragmentation. However, it still leaves users in the dust.

iPad sales are way down since people have little reason to upgrade. 70% of iPad customers not able to upgrade to IOS 10 will make people very unhappy but will greatly stimulate sales. Besides, IOS 10 will be most likely released in September 2016 (i.e. not immediately).
This was what I was thinking too. Especially given how Ipad sales are down, and folks generally hold on to Ipads longer than Iphones, I wouldn't be surprised if they were extra motivated to drop support for older devices just to get us to buy newer models.

If people are ticked off, they'll make the judgment call to finally pony up for a newer model, or just stick with what they have and make peace with that.

And if Apple really is a company that's more into supporting their user base than profits (which I don't believe), then they would be keeping the Ipod Touch line, and reintroducing a new Ipod Classic/dedicated mp3 player line (which I don't believe either). Given that, I doubt they'll support previous Ipads more than they'd care to.
 
Apple has only ever left one iPad unsupported (iPad 1) and there weren't many people using it when it lost support, and even then there was anger and many brand swappers.

Apple needs to treat iPads like they treat Macs - long software support cycles, as people are treating their iPads as devices they do not replace regularly.

Agreed, Apple needs to treat iPads like they treat Macs, and I think that is their plan. It has been fine to leave older iPhones behind on old software because people upgrade the iPhone every two years, and iPods because they won't lose their ability to play music. On the other hand, iPads are computer replacements for many, and Apple should treat them like this. Also, the Apple watch S1 chip is similar in performance to the A5 chip, so even though it runs a dumbed down iOS version, Apple will still need to support this level of performance in some form for many years.
 
iPad sales are way down since people have little reason to upgrade. 70% of iPad customers not able to upgrade to IOS 10 will make people very unhappy but will greatly stimulate sales. Besides, IOS 10 will be most likely released in September 2016 (i.e. not immediately).
IMO, being unable to upgrade to the latest version of iOS is not as big a hit to customer satisfaction as having their device's performance degrade with an upgrade.

Generally speaking, there is little that is inherently beneficial to upgrading iOS. Primarily, an upgrade provides support for the hardware features that are introduced with the new generation. For example: Apple adds Touch ID to the iPad, they choose to upgrade iOS to support it. That does nothing for those who own iPads without a Touch ID sensor.

The real pushes to upgrade are (A) security fixes and (B) application pre-requisites. I wouldn't be surprised if iOS development tools place great emphasis in developing to the latest version of iOS... placing a requirement that has no technical merit, but a business purpose.


People aren't going to shell out heaps of money to upgrade to another iPad if they are unhappy...
There's a tipping point. There are some who are marginally unhappy and realize that purchasing the latest version will address (at least temporarily) their unhappiness. There are others who have weighed the benefits against the cost and will decide that it is better for them to switch to a different device than to upgrade.

Up until this point Apple has been betting (successfully) that people are unhappy enough to upgrade but satisfied enough to stay with Apple.

I think that the tide is beginning to turn.
 
IMO, being unable to upgrade to the latest version of iOS is not as big a hit to customer satisfaction as having their device's performance degrade with an upgrade.

Generally speaking, there is little that is inherently beneficial to upgrading iOS. Primarily, an upgrade provides support for the hardware features that are introduced with the new generation. For example: Apple adds Touch ID to the iPad, they choose to upgrade iOS to support it. That does nothing for those who own iPads without a Touch ID sensor.

The real pushes to upgrade are (A) security fixes and (B) application pre-requisites. I wouldn't be surprised if iOS development tools place great emphasis in developing to the latest version of iOS... placing a requirement that has no technical merit, but a business purpose.



There's a tipping point. There are some who are marginally unhappy and realize that purchasing the latest version will address (at least temporarily) their unhappiness. There are others who have weighed the benefits against the cost and will decide that it is better for them to switch to a different device than to upgrade.

Up until this point Apple has been betting (successfully) that people are unhappy enough to upgrade but satisfied enough to stay with Apple.

I think that the tide is beginning to turn.

So people who buy an iPad Mini 1 today and can't upgrade within 5 months would be really likely to go buy another iPad?

Apple has NEVER dropped that many people with an update. EVER.

People also forget that a lot of iPad users aren't Mac users. They're PC users who are generally not loyal to brands, so Apple has every reason to attempt to improve loyalty to keep customers in the ecosystem.

People know that that newer software will slow them down, but for many being able to update to the latest Apps and new features are an attraction. Its a better solution just to offer the update - then people can pick and choose what they want. It works well on Macs. People understand that updates will slow their Mac eventually, but they have the option of updating or staying behind.

----------

They don't have massive fragmentation, but it's still more than it used to be.

Dropping support for previous specs and software may not indeed be fragmentation. However, it still leaves users in the dust.


This was what I was thinking too. Especially given how Ipad sales are down, and folks generally hold on to Ipads longer than Iphones, I wouldn't be surprised if they were extra motivated to drop support for older devices just to get us to buy newer models.

If people are ticked off, they'll make the judgment call to finally pony up for a newer model, or just stick with what they have and make peace with that.

And if Apple really is a company that's more into supporting their user base than profits (which I don't believe), then they would be keeping the Ipod Touch line, and reintroducing a new Ipod Classic/dedicated mp3 player line (which I don't believe either). Given that, I doubt they'll support previous Ipads more than they'd care to.

Software fragmentation is when you've got large numbers of users across a number of versions of software. 70 percent of iPad users not on the latest version would be HUGE fragmentation. Android devices are fragmented, people are across huge numbers of different versions of Android OS. On iOS devices, something like 80 percent are on iOS 8 and 15 percent on iOS 7 then a very small number on earlier. Having 20 percent of people on iOS 6, 40 percent on iOS 7 and 40 percent on iOS 8 would be fragmentation.
 
So people who buy an iPad Mini 1 today and can't upgrade within 5 months would be really likely to go buy another iPad?

Apple has NEVER dropped that many people with an update. EVER.
That's nothing more than a strawman.

Complaints about upgrades that have degraded performance are numerous. Please direct me to an even larger number of complaints about devices that are unable to be upgraded to the latest.

Every discussion on the topic that Apple should be more conservative in what devices it allows to upgrade is always greeted with the claim of the waves of customers who would be angry that they couldn't upgrade... yet those complaints don't seem to materialize.
 
So people who buy an iPad Mini 1 today and can't upgrade within 5 months would be really likely to go buy another iPad?

The iPad Mini 1 will most likely run IOS 9. I expect it will be discontinued in September 2015 along will the 5C and Touch 5. Those devices will still be usable on the latest IOS (IOS 9) until IOS 10 is released in Sept 2016 (i.e. They will not lose support for the latest IOS until 12 months after they are discontinued).
 
As to the whole
They will not lose support for the latest iOS until 12 months after they are discontinued.
thing. It has happened before, with the iPod touch. The 4th gen was officially discontinued on May 30, 2013, and iOS 7 was released in September.

What's stranger to me though, is that they are still selling the iPod touch 4th gen right now in their refurbished section!

No joke! Surely I can't be the only one surprised they are
1. Selling a refurbished model that came out in 2010 and
2. Selling a refurbished model running iOS 6, that is now two versions out of date.

Seems like they just do whatever they want. For all we know, they could totally axe the touch 5 from iOS 9 if they felt like it. I don't think they will, but they easily could. Or keep selling it for another year, or more.

Personally, I most likely won't buy a new iPod even if they do release one because I've moved on the the Classic and a 5.5G for my uses. And I'm very happy with them. Even though both of them have been discontinued as well, software updates aren't a thing with them. They just play music :)

But I would still love to see them make one with 5s internals and an A7 or something at the least. An A8 would be awesome if they can get the production cost where they want it and keep their profit margins. Rumor has it the Apple TV may be getting one. So I could see it in the touch too.
 
if they keep to their usual cycle, the a5 processor won't get ios9 - the a4 didn't get ios8 so it's the a5 next. but there's a glimmer of hope, as ios9 is said to be more of a performance update (think osx snow leopard)

Snow Leopard wasn't a performance update, it was an optimization and new technologies update. It was an overhaul of the infrastructure of OS X. If iOS follows suit here, then it is highly likely that legacy support in most areas will be dropped and that includes A5 support, which, at this point has required extra effort to maintain in updates to iOS 8.

It would stand to reason that from a development standpoint, they are incentivized to drop support for the A5 as soon as they can.

From a marketing standpoint, the iPod line, iPod touch included, is declining and it hasn't received updates. Apple has the freedom to drop support and discontinue it and, relative to their customer base at large, it wouldn't harm them in the slightest.

The first generation iPad mini competes with perfectly adequate Android tablets that will never get iOS updates but are still more than functional as tablets. You get what you pay for. For them to finally drop support for it wouldn't be all that unrealistic. People forget that even though the A5 has found its way into a lot of devices, most people with iPhone 4Ses have upgraded as have iPad 2 users. Those who are still rocking a first gen iPad mini would hardly care that they're not being kept up to date as they're buying a tablet that was released two and a half years ago, also the mini tablet market is dying in and of itself.

Long story short, anyone who would care that their A5 device is old has already done something about it or at least has a plan to do something about it.

so if i was to buy a brand new itouch 5g today, what life expectancy could i realistically get from it?

That depends:

1. As a music player, it will last until the critical components die; and if you take really good care of it and its battery, you should get easily 7 years before any one component starts to die.

2. For E-mail, provided your e-mail will still work with whatever version of Apple Mail is the final one for it, same amount of time.

3. For apps that connect to a service, you have until the final version of the app that supports the final version of iOS that runs on the iPod touch is no longer able to connect to said service.

4. For apps that don't connect to a service (games and whatnot) you can theoretically run the last compatible version of those apps until your iPod touch finally dies.

5. For as a video player (for iTunes content), see 1.

6. For browsing the web, it will last until the browser no longer supports the majority of the Internet.

7. For the iTunes store and purchasing media, in theory it will last until Apple no longer supports those devices from the store (which likely won't ever happen for iTunes and iBooks at least) or until 1. happens, whichever comes first.

8. For being current on iOS, odds are decent that you have until this September until it is left behind. I'd imagine that if you didn't load up that many apps, the relative lack of support for security updates wouldn't affect your ability or experience in playing back media a la a traditional iPod. I'm considering buying a 64GB fourth generation iPod touch from the refurb section of the Apple Online Store just to use it as a media player and see how I like it out of the context of it having been an iOS device (as we often forget that iOS was originally billed to deliver the superior iPod experience before apps were ever a factor).
 
many thanks for the detailed reply :) my use will be just as a music player, primarily airplay and streaming over wifi to a speaker. so i guess i fall into number 1?

1. As a music player, it will last until the critical components die; and if you take really good care of it and its battery, you should get easily 7 years before any one component starts to die

or does the fact that i will be using airplay and wifi mean i could go into any of the other scenarios you mentioned?
 
many thanks for the detailed reply :) my use will be just as a music player, primarily airplay and streaming over wifi to a speaker. so i guess i fall into number 1?



or does the fact that i will be using airplay and wifi mean i could go into any of the other scenarios you mentioned?

Highly unlikely.

The only way in which you'd have issues is if you couldn't use the last compatible version of the AirPort Utility app, but even then, that's for the purposes of administering your AirPort Expresses (which you could just as easily delegate to a more current iPad, iPhone, or any Mac with Lion or newer. The actual ability to AirPlay to anything likely won't go away from the iPod touch, even if it ends up capped at iOS 8.
 
The iPad Mini 1 will most likely run IOS 9. I expect it will be discontinued in September 2015 along will the 5C and Touch 5. Those devices will still be usable on the latest IOS (IOS 9) until IOS 10 is released in Sept 2016 (i.e. They will not lose support for the latest IOS until 12 months after they are discontinued).

The thing is that if the Mini 1 is supported all the A5 iPads need to be supported.

I think I've forgotten the original argument which was whether or not iOS 10 will run on A6 devices!!
 
As to the whole thing. It has happened before, with the iPod touch. The 4th gen was officially discontinued on May 30, 2013, and iOS 7 was released in September.

What's stranger to me though, is that they are still selling the iPod touch 4th gen right now in their refurbished section!

No joke! Surely I can't be the only one surprised they are
1. Selling a refurbished model that came out in 2010 and
2. Selling a refurbished model running iOS 6, that is now two versions out of date.

Seems like they just do whatever they want. For all we know, they could totally axe the touch 5 from iOS 9 if they felt like it. I don't think they will, but they easily could. Or keep selling it for another year, or more.

Personally, I most likely won't buy a new iPod even if they do release one because I've moved on the the Classic and a 5.5G for my uses. And I'm very happy with them. Even though both of them have been discontinued as well, software updates aren't a thing with them. They just play music :)

But I would still love to see them make one with 5s internals and an A7 or something at the least. An A8 would be awesome if they can get the production cost where they want it and keep their profit margins. Rumor has it the Apple TV may be getting one. So I could see it in the touch too.

The norm is for 12 months of support - its only happened once and in different circumstances.

The iPod Touch was one device, with a low market share. There were no other Retina A4 256 MB devices supported at the time the iPod Touch 4 lost support.

However currently the iPad Mini has about a 22 percent share of all iPads in use. The Identical spec wise iPad 2 has about 24 percent share of all iPads in use. There is also the iPhone 4S and iPod Touch with similar (slower) specs still in widespread use. And Apple kept not one but two A5 devices, unlike the lone A4 device. Lets remember that iOS 7 was one of the most resource consuming iOS updates to date, where as iOS 9 is rumoured to perform better than its predecessor.

The refurb section is again a completely different story. I've overheard many sales of iPad Mini 1s for sale at the local Apple store. People are being told they're just buying a slower non retina iPad Mini. People would not be buying if they knew that in 5-6 months, they wouldn't be able to run the latest iOS or download all the latest App updates or potentially loose some syncing components of iCloud.
 
The thing is that if the Mini 1 is supported all the A5 iPads need to be supported.

I think I've forgotten the original argument which was whether or not iOS 10 will run on A6 devices!!

I believe all A5 IOS devices will support IOS 9.

I also believe that IOS 10 will only support an A7 or better so the Touch 5, iPad Mini 1, and the 5C should be discontinued this fall.
 
I believe all A5 IOS devices will support IOS 9.

I also believe that IOS 10 will only support an A7 or better so the Touch 5, iPad Mini 1, and the 5C should be discontinued this fall.

I don't think the iPhone 4s will get longer support than the iPhone 5, if A5 gets 9 then iOS 10 will support the A6.

Also the A5 is the first multi-core iOS processor so maybe Apple intends to get more out of it.
 
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I don't think the iPhone 4s will get longer support than the iPhone 5, if A5 gets 9 then iOS 10 will support the A6.

Also the A5 is the first multi-core iOS processor so maybe Apple intends to get more out of it.

From all that I see, IOS 10 will probably be 64 bit only (A7 or later). I wouldn't complain if IOS 10 supported the A6 but I don't think its going to happen.
 
From all that I see, IOS 10 will probably be 64 bit only (A7 or later). I wouldn't complain if IOS 10 supported the A6 but I don't think its going to happen.

What makes you think that? Apple has never dropped more than one iPhone at a time.
 
What makes you think that? Apple has never dropped more than one iPhone at a time.

During the last five years, Apple has also not dropped less than one iphone each year. It's possible this would change this year with iOS 9. Giving this some thought, the basis of your argument might not hold very well.
 
During the last five years, Apple has also not dropped less than one iphone each year. It's possible this would change this year with iOS 9. Giving this some thought, the basis of your argument might not hold very well.

iOS 5 and 6 didn't drop any iPhone... (Though the 3G was dropped with 4.3).

iOS 4.0 dropped the iPhone 2G
iOS 4.3 dropped the iPhone 3G
iOS 7 dropped the iPhone 3GS
iOS 8 dropped the iPhone 4

the 2G received 2 updates
the 3G received 2 updates
the 3GS received 3 updates
the 4 received 3 updates

Maybe the 4S and 5 will get 4 updates? Who knows. I'd say that the 4S will get 4 updates (Based on the fact that iPhone 4S's have been picked up from Apple running iOS 9 in web logs) Apple is probably judging how well it runs iOS 9, and if they're still testing it now, it would make sense to me that its running reasonably well. (The fact that they're testing it would tell me they're not going t apply an arbitrary limit on it).
 
iOS 5 and 6 didn't drop any iPhone... (Though the 3G was dropped with 4.3).

iOS 4.0 dropped the iPhone 2G
iOS 4.3 dropped the iPhone 3G
iOS 7 dropped the iPhone 3GS
iOS 8 dropped the iPhone 4

the 2G received 2 updates
the 3G received 2 updates
the 3GS received 3 updates
the 4 received 3 updates

Maybe the 4S and 5 will get 4 updates? Who knows. I'd say that the 4S will get 4 updates (Based on the fact that iPhone 4S's have been picked up from Apple running iOS 9 in web logs) Apple is probably judging how well it runs iOS 9, and if they're still testing it now, it would make sense to me that its running reasonably well. (The fact that they're testing it would tell me they're not going t apply an arbitrary limit on it).

Makes sense. iOS 4.3 happened the same year as 5 though. And i never thought 6 was as major an update as ios 1,2,3,4,5,7, or 8. Seemed like a point update and a bug fix release for iOS 5.

My thinking has been that around the time of each truly major software update, Apple stops software updating an iPhone / A series chip.

iOS 9 is rumored to be the snow leopard release of iOS, which implies no iPhone is dropped. iOS 10 would be a larger features update, because 'minor' / bug fix updates don't happen two years in a row. And so the iPhone 5 / A6 chip is dropped with iOS 10.
 
Makes sense. iOS 4.3 happened the same year as 5 though. And i never thought 6 was as major an update as ios 1,2,3,4,5,7, or 8. Seemed like a point update and a bug fix release for iOS 5.

My thinking has been that around the time of each truly major software update, Apple stops software updating an iPhone / A series chip.

iOS 9 is rumored to be the snow leopard release of iOS, which implies no iPhone is dropped. iOS 10 would be a larger features update, because 'minor' / bug fix updates don't happen two years in a row. And so the iPhone 5 / A6 chip is dropped with iOS 10.

I think if there are enough people on the 5/5C and iPad 4 come iOS 10 time, it will get support. I don't see Apple going backwards in terms of iOS support - so if they move to 4 versions of iOS for the 4S, I don't see the 5 getting less than that? Who knows though.

Apple has not yet demonstrated to us how it will treat devices that were introduced with older chipsets - either treated by their age, or the age of the chipset (EG will the iPad Mini 1 get treated like a 2012 iPad 4 or like a 2011 iPad 2, and will the 5C get treated like a 2012 iPhone 5 or a 2013 iPhone 5S.
 
Apple drops support for technical reasons more than marketing reasons and they've shown us this time and time again. A5 processors are gone for those reasons more than any other. The fact that things are "still sold" means absolutely nothing. "Marketshare" means absolutely nothing. People on older devices will not be angry that their old devices aren't supported anymore; they'll just go out and buy new ones as they have always done with Apple products. Why else do you think the iPhone continues to sell well? People HAVE to buy a new one after 2-3 years.
 
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