Those estimates seem reasonable and I would have no reason to think they would be out of those ranges. If that proves to be accurate, it is highly likely that most people on this site that are pre ordering the second the site/app is live will be able to secure one. Out of the 10 million who would pre-order, many will fall victim to some delays (not pre-entering payment info, not opening the site/app right as it goes live, missed alarm clocks etc., also the people who will pre-order but will do so comfortably in the morning when they wake up). I think people should be concerned about getting one on launch day if they dont have there order in within about 3-5 minutes of the app/site going live. Not to mention a significant amount of stock will be distributed over the entire month of november to begin catching up to demand. Apparently Apple has fixed the 2 bottlenecks in the production process and are now free flowing.