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2008-09 NFL Season Thread

With the AFC game, both teams are defensive powerhouses, yet very mediocre on offense.

However, whoever wins the AFC game today will win the Super Bowl. My original guess was Titans over the Giants by 4 points. My guess is that the AFC champ will get 10 points and shut down the Cardinals who will get only 3 or 6 points.

But I will root for the Cardinals as I figure they will be an underdog for sure by every betting site on the net. I don't see the Cardinals having a hard time with any of the AFC teams' offense, but will have a hard time trying to score with the defenses either of the remaining AFC teams will bring to game day. Warner, who I like, will probably get sacked three times and maybe even get put out of the game. Both the Steelers and Ravens know how to take down a QB hard.

Neither Super Bowl QB will rack up more than 200 yards on the day.

The Cardinals will have a bad day on rushing.

The AFC opponent will have a less than average day on rushing, but have what it takes to win. The AFC team will rush one in, get an extra point, and kick a 3 pointer.

The closest Warner and company will get is maybe one 3 pointer in the game or in each half. No red zone for Arizona.

Those are my guesses.

This may turn out to be one of the most unremarkable offensive Super Bowls in history for passing and rushing yards, but the unseen heroics will be in how defenses, Arizona being good, and the AFC teams being great, hold back the opposition. Key tackles will be made. Many 3rd down conversions will go badly on both sides. The AFC team will stop a lot of the Cardinals' rushes for losses in yardage at times.
 
Great to see Aeneas Williams on the field. He's the greatest Cardinal of the team's Arizona's years, and was an amazing player.

Watching Adrian Wilson break down when interviewed reminded me a bit of Bill Russell not being able to answer at first when interviewed after the Celtics' final championship in the 1960s. He is at the same point Williams was in his career in 1998, when the Cardinals last went to the playoffs. Longest-tenured Cardinal, and the elder statesman of the group, along with being a Pro Bowler.

The stadium looked electric, and I wish I had been there.
 
furcalchick said:
is it just me, or is it the 2006 world series all over again? (mediocre cardinal team wins world series). or is this more 2008 world series?
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atleast we dont have to worry about a stupid rain delay to ruin the game

that game 6 should never been played. ayway i think this will be a great game i do like the cardnials especailly if Ward is still out for the superbowl if ward is in i say cardnials by 7 if not i say cardnials by more than 7
 
Im so stoked the Cards won. They aren't even "supposed" to be here.

I'm hoping they pull off the third upset in a row in the big game.
 
Mike Teezie said:
Im so stoked the Cards won. They aren't even "supposed" to be here.

I'm hoping they pull off the third upset in a row in the big game.
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I didn't think either team would be there. The Steelers did not have the best offense in the NFL and the Cardinals did not have the best defense, or record, in the NFL.

Defensively, the way both the Steelers and the Ravens covered each other, stopped the run, and put pressure on each others quarterbacks shows that whoever won the AFC championship game will be able to effectively shut down Warner and the Cardinals on Super Bowl Sunday.

The AFC game was a 2 point low scoring game late in the 4th quarter being a showcase for defense in that cold. The Ravens let up on the pass late in the 4th and the Steelers let up on the run late in the 4th. In a warmer atmosphere, the Steelers' defense won't get so worn down and will be able to hold their line all four quarters. Likewise, the Ravens would have no problem with holding if they were the ones to go to the Super Bowl.

The real Super Bowl was the AFC championship game and both teams shined on defense. While the Steelers are not a high scoring team, they will hold the Cardinals almost to a shutout.
 
Football

though no one expected ARZ I think the superbowl will be very interesting. Just as nail biting as the Giants vs Patriots. It'll come down to the forth quarter and both QBs have won the big game before so we'll see. I'm gonna love watch Kurt try and disect the steelers defense. Good match up high powered offense hard hitting defense.
 
KkRuss1979 said:
though no one expected ARZ I think the superbowl will be very interesting. Just as nail biting as the Giants vs Patriots. It'll come down to the forth quarter and both QBs have won the big game before so we'll see. I'm gonna love watch Kurt try and disect the steelers defense. Good match up high powered offense hard hitting defense.
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I would love to see Warner pick apart the Steelers #1 defense, but if he and his team could do that, they would have done better than 9-7, especially in football's most pathetic division. But they have the #3 best/#4 best NFL offense on points/yards.

If the Cardinals score 10 points in this Super Bowl, I will be amazed if they do this against the Steelers, but if they do 10 points they can "still" win this game since on offense, this years Steelers are the worst offense (#20/#22 on points/yards) I have seen going to the big game since the pre-Brady Patriots of old. This could be the lowest ranked offense in football history going to any pro or college championship game.

But the Steelers' defenders stick to everyone like magnets and I am hoping for some Cardinal miracle. Super Bowl history almost overwhelmingly favors good defense over good offense. BTW, the Cardinal's D is #28/#19 against points/yards, perhaps one of football's worst defenses going into the big game or any big game.

This is going to be one really low scoring game, and all kudos are going to go the Steelers' defenders as they will be doing high 5s all over the place.
 
63dot said:
I would love to see Warner pick apart the Steelers #1 defense, but if he and his team could do that, they would have done better than 9-7, especially in football's most pathetic division. But they have the #3 best/#4 best NFL offense on points/yards.

If the Cardinals score 10 points in this Super Bowl, I will be amazed if they do this against the Steelers, but if they do 10 points they can "still" win this game since on offense, this years Steelers are the worst offense (#20/#22 on points/yards) I have seen going to the big game since the pre-Brady Patriots of old. This could be the lowest ranked offense in football history going to any pro or college championship game.

But the Steelers' defenders stick to everyone like magnets and I am hoping for some Cardinal miracle. Super Bowl history almost overwhelmingly favors good defense over good offense. BTW, the Cardinal's D is #28/#19 against points/yards, perhaps one of football's worst defenses going into the big game or any big game.

This is going to be one really low scoring game, and all kudos are going to go the Steelers' defenders as they will be doing high 5s all over the place.
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the thing with the numbers is that you have to take them for what they're worth, and realize things have changed in the post season.

arizona's playoff defense has been much better than their regular season rankings suggest and they couldn't have won 3 in a row without it. the steelers still have the best defense though.

i think the az O vs. steeler D will be a wash and the game will be determined by the matchup of big ben and his offense vs. the cardinal defense.
 
donga said:
the thing with the numbers is that you have to take them for what they're worth, and realize things have changed in the post season.

arizona's playoff defense has been much better than their regular season rankings suggest and they couldn't have won 3 in a row without it. the steelers still have the best defense though.

i think the az O vs. steeler D will be a wash and the game will be determined by the matchup of big ben and his offense vs. the cardinal defense.
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Ben's numbers as a QB is one of the worst in football for a post season team. Even the Raven's awful QB had a higher QB rating this season. Ben is a non-issue this year, but if the Cardinals really, really suck on defense at the Super Bowl, as they did during the regular season, then Ben can do OK, maybe. It will be fun to see the worst championship offense in football history, this year's Steelers, match up against an "overall" Cardinal defense which still stinks and is remarkably bad.

The REAL factor here is still the Steeler's defense, which ranks among the best this year in football being #1 in three of four measured defensive categories. In the other category, the Steelers ranked #2. (www.nfl.com)

At times, a Super Bowl QB may go into the playoffs with a mid to high 80s QB rating and be marginal at best, but Ben came in with a dismal 80.1 rating and almost as many interceptions as touchdowns during the regular season. It's all about defense with this year's Steelers.
 
Last year's Pats had the number one offense in the game,records out the ying ying,top rankings etc..Didn't mean jack come SB time..Same for the 01 Pat's team that played the Rams,aka the Greatest Show on Turf..According to the stats,the Pats shouldn't have even been in that game.. Stats go out the window once kickoff comes around..And the Steeler's D isn't going to be facing a rookie QB throwing up wounded ducks either like they did last week.
 
fotografica said:
Last year's Pats had the number one offense in the game,records out the ying ying,top rankings etc..Didn't mean jack come SB time..Same for the 01 Pat's team that played the Rams,aka the Greatest Show on Turf..According to the stats,the Pats shouldn't have even been in that game.. Stats go out the window once kickoff comes around..And the Steeler's D isn't going to be facing a rookie QB throwing up wounded ducks either like they did last week.
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As you know, in your neck of the woods, there was this one large city pinstriped baseball team (with a ton a bling) that had the Red Sox down 3-0 in the playoffs, and in an event that happens once or twice in a century in sports in a 4 winner take all situation, Boston came back against the stiffest odds and won 4 in a row.

But on the whole, it is very rare for a team to beat extremely long odds, but as the Red Sox showed us some years ago against the Yankees, long odds are meant to get broken every blue moon, or in sports, once or twice a century. In my lifetime of seeing all sports, I have never seen anything as amazing as the "curse" of Babe Ruth being broken, and likely never will in the time I have remaining on this planet. That Red Sox team was the Cinderella story of the last 100 years.

When you have an amazingly bad regular season offense with an amazingly bad QB rating (Steelers), you are probably shot, right? Not when you have the #1 defense going against a team with little or no consistent defense such as the Cardinals.

Sure the Cardinals have a great offense, no argument there, but while stats are not 100% percent reliable, good defense almost always beats good offense. And to add to that team with a good offense, they would get a ton of help if they had some happening defense, which they simply don't.

Look back into football, baseball, or basketball history and find how many times a severe underdog, like the 9-7 Cardinals, come up big in the playoffs and Super Bowl.

Statistically, we are talking about a number that approaches 3 standard deviations. If the Steelers don't even score one passing touchdown or one running touchdown and get three field goals, they can still rely on their amazing defense to virtually shut down the Cardinals.

What makes you think the third oldest QB in Super Bowl history is just going to come up big against a huge defense such as the Steelers?

But to answer your question, yes, odds get beaten, but severe odds at 2 to 4 standard deviations are very rarely broken. Most odds makers sites are pretty consistent with their conservative odds. The Steelers have a low of 7 points above the Cardinals and some say by 14 points. I have never seen a 14 point spread in my lifetime, though the Colts-Jets game with Namath was a 17 point spread by some respected odds makers.

Anyway, in a few weeks, I will get to meet my math teacher's mentor from grad school, Dr. John Nash, who will visit a nearby college. If I get a chance, I want to ask him how often he thinks one can defy 68%, 95%, 99.7%, and 99.994% percent odds against you. The Red Sox curse breaking team broke the 99.7% percent number, for instance and used that .03% percent to get that ring.

As I look through all measured QB ratings of regular season QBs who went in to a Super Bowl, Big Ben has the lowest number, but that will be against a really bad, 20-something ranked Cardinals defense. This Super Bowl will be a first for many stats!
 
What makes a "Hall of Fame" career?

They've been chatting about Kurt Warner this week on the local radio. Is he a HOFer? If not, why not?

The first year with the Rams was probably the most remarkable year I'd ever seen a QB play. He was DEADLY accurate that season. Then the league figured out that if you whack him a few times he gets happy feet and isn't all that good.

But now he's back to his old form. It was especially evident when compared to McNab.

Early in the decade Terrell Davis was THE running back in the league... but his career was incredibly short. So was Bo Jackson's.

Is Warner a HOFer? Are these other guys?
 
MacNut said:
I think Warner has to win the SB to be considered for the HOF.
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Tell that to HOF greats Jim Kelly and Dan Marino, oh yeah Fran Tarkenton, too. No rings there, really.

Warner is going to his third and even if he loses, he still has one win in the Super Bowl and one loss as of today.

John Elway was largely considered a Hall of Famer when he had three losing trips to the Super Bowl. The future two wins after those three losses was icing on the cake.
 
63dot said:
John Elway was largely considered a Hall of Famer when he had three losing trips to the Super Bowl.
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Well, I grew up watching John Elway and let me tell you, if I were to own a team, he'd be my QB. I've never seen anyone like him. He had something intangible. A charisma of sorts. If there was 3:00 minutes left in a game and you were down by 17 points... you THOUGHT you still had a chance to win the game when he was on the field. It was amazing.

I don't have an explanation for why he lost so many Super Bowls. Maybe his coach(es)? Dan whathisname lost every single SB he ever participated in.
 
I don't go for the cross sport references in regard to the NFL post season. In the NFL,it's one and done,win or go home. No best of 7 championship series like the other major sports.You have no time to make up for a bad game in the NFL post season. That's what makes it so different.
In regard to the HOF,I think you need to look at the career as a whole,a body of work. For example,if Pitt wins,does that make Ben a HOFer? He'll have QB'd two of the last four SB winners.There are other factors at play as well..Personally,I think Stabler should be a HOF'er..Just my opinion..
 
I read somewhere (TMQ or PFT I think) that the game probably wouldn't be decided by Arizona's great offense or the Steeler's great defense which may indeed cancel one another out. But how the average Cards D and the average Steelers O do against each other.

I suspect that the Cards, once they had their division title sewn up, played vanilla for much of Nov/Dec hence the losses and poor record. Whisenhunt seems to be showing more during the playoffs - my concern for them is their 3rd quarter meltdown where they seem to take the foot off the gas. Rodgers-Cromartie has really come on in the secondary.

The Steelers D is amazing though and Polamalu had a cracking game against the Ravens but if the Cards O-line can give Warner time, he's got more chance to do some damage than Flacco had.

I think the Steelers are the deserved favourites but I'd like the Cards to win (don't want another team to be the first to get to 6 wins!) :p
 
fotografica said:
In the NFL,it's one and done,win or go home. No best of 7 championship series like the other major sports.
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If it's about single games, hypothetically, how do you think things would turn out if let's say the Super Bowl was Detroit against the Titans, just for kicks?

How often does a team rise above how they played all season and throughout the playoffs? I did hear one NFL coach say there is a very slight difference in the NFL between the best team (Titans) and the worst (Lions). Maybe he sees something that past performance records don't.

At the end of the day, even the worst team has players that are professionals and individually, they can have a game that is their personal best, even the Super Bowl. But how likely is it for an entire team to work a miracle?

What bugs me is when people take the statement, it becomes a new season at the playoffs. All that means when you are a bottom seeded team when you make it to the Super Bowl is that you survived. When you are the top seed like the Giants or the Titans, if you don't make it to at least the conference playoffs, that is considered a major letdown.

I could see a team re-energizing to a point at postseason, but to have it be commonplace pretty much goes against how players and teams have performed in the past. Generally, a team who does well all season has far greater odds at winning the Super Bowl.

The Steelers would have to have the defense fall apart. I don't see that happening.
 
Applespider said:
I read somewhere (TMQ or PFT I think) that the game probably wouldn't be decided by Arizona's great offense or the Steeler's great defense which may indeed cancel one another out. But how the average Cards D and the average Steelers O do against each other.
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Average Card's D or average Steeler's O? That is being incredibly nice.
They are among the worst who have ever made it to the Super Bowl on defense, for the Cards, and offense, for the Steelers.

If the Cards with their mediocre regular season record wins the Super Bowl, that is amazing and awe inspiring, and I will be happy since it's not every year you see a 9-7 team do that.

If the Steelers with their offense wins, that's also amazing if you look at their piss poor offense, but bad offenses have been on the winning end before (actually, in recent years with the Ravens and the Bucs, but neither were are bad as this year's Steelers. But when has a bad defensive team ever won a Super Bowl?

But, at least to keep a flame burning for the Cardinals, there can always be a first. ;)
 
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