I tend to agree.
While a much smaller market than F1, the CART/IRL split destroyed open-wheel racing in the United States and the ALMS/GrandAm split is doing much the same to road-course racing.
Monaco has already informed the FIA that unless a Ferrari is in the field, they should not bother to show up at Monte Carlo next year. So that appears to be one track FOTA can count on and that's the one track that matters most to the FIA and Formula One Management.
Mosley is now mumbling about Silverstone getting the 2010 BGP, as well, but one wonders if that is because Donnington Park really will not be ready in 12 months or if it is a way to try and keep Silverstone from signing an agreement with FOTA to host the British round of their breakaway series.
The FIA World Motorsports Council is meeting very soon and there are mumblings they may force Mosley out in order to try and bring FOTA back to the negotiating table.
Both sides have serious ability to hurt each other and if they choose to exercise those options, it will get very ugly.
The FIA can put pressure on the drivers (revocation of their Super Licenses) and tracks (revocation of any FIA-sanctioned event).
And the FOTA teams have the names and, frankly, the product that the international fanbase wants. Facilities that are already struggling to justify continuing to run a round of the F1 World Championship with the existing teams might decide that running the FIA's "Formula 1/2" is not worth it, especially at the fees Bernie charges. And without those great names, Bernie's ability to try and use new countries and/or venues to twist arms might be hurt.
good analysis.
i think the difference with the IRL/Champ split is how much more leverage FOTA has. I don't see the issue of circuits being an unsormountable one.
there are the circuits that have been left out because of issues with bernie (montreal, indy fro example) that might be happy to re-join, and other than Monaco there are plenty of circuits that will follow suit, starting from Monza (i can only imagine waht the tifosi would do if monza sticks to the fia side), dubai/bahrein where I am certain that ferrari is by far the main drawing reason of existance (don't they have some sort of ferrari-themed park opening?).
Alonso has already declared that he's following suit, and with him does Spain.
France will follow Renault and Silverstone will be more than happy to stick it to bernie.
Take into account the McLaren/Hamilton factor and you have pretty much the entire who's who on one side, and two widely despised figures with a bunch on low-weight figures on the other.
Williams is the only exception, but if the fota initiative moves on, i think that F1 will actually fold rather than try to compete, and williams will re-join the teams.
for tv, it is similar, there are plenty of channels that would be more than happy to pick up the new series if the ones that currently have them are stuck with the old F1, which they probably won't anyway, as i am sure they have protections as well if f1 shows up without real cars.
it all boils down to legal aspects and what the contracts really say.