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2011-12 NFL football season thread

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acidfast7 said:
strength of schedule (SOS)
strength of conference (SOC)

correlations can be seen between the differences in absolute score and delta(SOS), delta(SOC) and delta(SOS-SOC).

basically, when the teams are more evenly matched the difference between scores is small. when one crunches the numbers, NE is favored by 2.8±0.5 pts, that's why they'll will by 3. and why the Giants shouldn't even get on the bus, as their chances of winning are statistically quite small (and winning by a TD or more are virtually non-existent.)


follow the betting lines as the game draws closer
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So you're saying the game is evenly matched enough for it to be a 3 point game, yet the Giants shouldn't even get on the bus for such a evenly matched close game, because they have no chance of winning??? is it evenly matched or not?

No idea how to get the SOC, but SOS is in NYG favor, 0.5195 vs 0.4492 and adjusted without their games is 0.5250 vs 0.4667

You say follow the betting lines, yet for the other NE SB they were favored by 12 when they lost by 3, and favored by 7 vs Eagles and Panthers, and the Rams were favored by 14.

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acidfast7 said:
you must be quite naïve, my son
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Go look at how much the betting lines have been correct, then you might see who's the naive one.
 
Silencio said:
You must be young. That was the reputation Niners fans were saddled with in the 80s and it still lingers on - see some of the articles from New York tabloid sports columnists over the past week.

But yeah, I know full well the atmosphere in the stands at NFL games, including at Candlestick, has changed a lot. It's one of the reasons I don't care much for the NFL anymore. Soon, they're going to need European-style seating segregation to keep opposing fans totally separated.
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Not young and have been to the bay many,many times. Lived there in the 60's and I know a lot of 49'ers fans.

Football fans are the same everywhere. Perhaps your view is the view from NYC. ;)
 
jsolares said:
Go look at how much the betting lines have been correct, then you might see who's the naive one.
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you look at how they move over time, not the endpoint.

:facepalm:

seriously, my prediction will hold as it did for the previous two Pats playoff games.

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jsolares said:
So you're saying the game is evenly matched enough for it to be a 3 point game, yet the Giants shouldn't even get on the bus for such a evenly matched close game, because they have no chance of winning??? is it evenly matched or not?
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I can't tell if it's intentional or not, but you really sound like a farmer. Is this some kind of joke? Do you not understand statistics or sample size?
 
acidfast7 said:
I can't tell if it's intentional or not, but you really sound like a farmer. Is this some kind of joke? Do you not understand statistics or sample size?
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Did the Giants win or not win the 2008 Super Bowl?
Did the Patriots win or not win the 2002 Super Bowl?

Favorites even with all the numbers stacked in their favor *can* lose, do you not understand that? people make mistakes, in these case players even if they are the best team on the face of the earth in all of time...

Numbers tell you who has the bigger chance to win if things remained as is, this is a game to be played based on actions not only decisions.
 
acidfast7 said:
:confused:
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Told you english is not my main language :(

They have to keep playing at the same level (mistakes and all) for the math to have a chance at holding true, the numbers have been right 71% of the time, not 100%

It's not just saying i'm going to keep doing X, you have to actually go out to the field and do it.

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Peace said:
Wasn't the the year of "Spygate" ?

Attitude has a lot to do with a game too.
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I think so, Still they went 16-0 amidst the allegations.
 
jsolares said:
Told you english is not my main language :(

They have to keep playing at the same level (mistakes and all) for the math to have a chance at holding true, the numbers have been right 71% of the time, not 100%

It's not just saying i'm going to keep doing X, you have to actually go out to the field and do it.

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I think so, Still they went 16-0 amidst the allegations.
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Yup. And Brady still can't live that down. He's going to get even in the same fashion that he wanted to show people the "T-Bow effect" was flawed.

I'm not saying the Pats will win. If the Giants play the way they did and the Pats play the way they did the Giants will win but I personally think the Pats have some payback in mind.
 
I want New York, but I will predict Patriots by 3.

24-21, and Tom Brady 300 or more yards on the day, two passing TDs, no interceptions, and MVP (but if Gronk is completely healed from knee injury and catches a lot of key passes, then MVP to him).
 
I prefer the Patriots being the underdog - let everyone think New York will steamroll us. I think as a team we play better that way anyway. Hopefully the Patriots are just keeping their heads down and working, they have several mistakes to correct that can't happen again.
 
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rdowns said:
Anyone notice the Pats haven't won **** since they were caught cheating? :D
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everyone was doing it and the league needed a scapegoat. pick the highest profile team and bust them, simple concept, repeated throughout the ages.
 
acidfast7 said:
everyone was doing it and the league needed a scapegoat. pick the highest profile team and bust them, simple concept, repeated throughout the ages.
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Yes, everyone was doing it and the Pats were scapegoated. :rolleyes:

The fact remains, they haven't won **** since caught cheating.
 
rdowns said:
Yes, everyone was doing it and the Pats were scapegoated. :rolleyes:

The fact remains, they haven't won **** since caught cheating.
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I thought you were joking around at first, rdowns, but do you really want to get into a trash talking contest? You're a Jets fan. Enough said.

You'd think by now you'd realize talking trash (while your team is sitting home in disarray) makes zero sense.
 
Queen of Spades said:
I thought you were joking around at first, rdowns, but do you really want to get into a trash talking contest? You're a Jets fan. Enough said.
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Oh please, you're just jealous that your head coach isn't a fat blowhard whose biggest claim to fame is being outed sucking his wife's toes and telling his team to go eat a ****ing snack. We won't even get into your jealousy over Sanchez. Way better looking than Brady and gets hotter women.
 
zioxide said:
I must be naive? Have you ever even been to a Patriots game? Or any NFL game for that matter?
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of course, I grew up in Maine and went to the old stadium many times. haven't been to the new stadium, which is a shame, because I could take the train from maine now :( and a few in Houston.

Probably more Red Sox and Celtics games though.
 
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