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2020 MLB Season Discussion Thread

And now it gets interesting.
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Marlins postpone game vs. O's as virus spreads

The Marlins have postponed their home opener and remain in Philadelphia as the coronavirus spreads among the team.
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How long before you have to start forfeiting games or pause the season?
[automerge]1595860615[/automerge]
Yankees Phillies game just cancelled.
 
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Forfeits are problematic. So the team that can't play probably deserves the loss, but does the other team really deserve the win? They aren't going to make it through a 60-game season, no way. They might have to cut games out for every team so that each team's wins are on the field of play, and all teams play the same number of games.
 
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Gregg2 said:
So with the rules changing for this shortened season, why didn't they test drive an umpire evaluation program with teeth? That is, have evaluations with consequences instead of the current "umpire for life" policy. They wouldn't have needed to implement the consequences this year, but just put umpires on notice that if adopted, this penalty would happen to these guys.

Calling balls and strikes is not easy, as evidenced by the number of missed calls made. But playing the game is not easy either, which is why only the best players get to keep their jobs. Why not put the umpire's job on the line just like players? Using today's technology, they could actually count the number of missed calls and come up with a percentage of all calls made that were wrong. Not every pitch results in a called ball or strike, of course. They could exclude those calls that the technology shows as on the borderline, that is, if there is no clearly visible pixel between the ball and the box, it just doesn't count as a call.

Penalties could range from losing their job, not being allowed to be behind the plate (just go from first to third in the rotation) or being suspended from calling pitches for one rotation, or more. Perhaps a certain number of lessor penalties could be used before being fired, with a "reset" after a certain number of games called that fell within the standard set. (I don't know where they should draw the line, but they have stats that could be used to determine the acceptable percentage.)

Now, I did just watch a game which had C.B. Bucknor behind the plate, and my team lost. But, along with Angel Hernandez, that guy is in the worst-of-the-worst category, in my opinion. They miss calls that are a few inches outside of the box, and going the other way, some where the technology shows the entire ball was just inside the box. Every ump will do both of those things on occasion, but those who clearly can't see the pitches accurately should not be given a pass.

I'm not advocating taking the human element out of umpiring. But it's time to hold them accountable for poor performance.
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I'd rather just robo umps. With machine learning and high-speed cameras, there are systems that know whether it will be a ball or strike before the ball travels even half the distance to the plate. I'd rather the human ump be more of a check against the computer, and not a primary.

In other words, the ump would still be there behind the plate, but he would have an earpiece telling him that the computer calls it a ball or strike. The guy can then just repeat whatever the computer says, which he should do 99% of the time, or if something funky happened (like the uncaught third strike rule or if the computer is obviously wrong) he can overrule the computer and call it.
 
oneMadRssn said:
he can overrule the computer and call it.
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For the love of God, no. I can already see instances in which the ump believes he's right, overrules the bot, and the replay proves the bot right. Or viceversa (the ump doesn't overrule the bot when it's clear he should). Either go all the way in, or don't.
 
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yaxomoxay said:
For the love of God, no. I can already see instances in which the ump believes he's right, overrules the bot, and the replay proves the bot right. Or viceversa (the ump doesn't overrule the bot when it's clear he should). Either go all the way in, or don't.
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No, no replays of balls/strikes. Nobody wants that ever. Whatever the ump says stays, and nobody but the ump and a few people in the MLB tech office will know whether its what the computer suggested or the ump overruled it. As far as the fans are concerned, the experience doesn't change much at all.
 
oneMadRssn said:
No, no replays of balls/strikes. Nobody wants that ever. Whatever the ump says stays, and nobody but the ump and a few people in the MLB tech office will know whether its what the computer suggested or the ump overruled it. As far as the fans are concerned, the experience doesn't change much at all.
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No, I mean replays on TV. Imagine the situation. Bottom of the 9th inning, bot calls a strike, ump overrules and calls a ball, replay on TV proves ump wrong. Nightmare scenario that will inevitably lead to even stricter rules (such as... replays for balls and strikes). There is nothing worse than creating two competing authorities.
 
yaxomoxay said:
No, I mean replays on TV. Imagine the situation. Bottom of the 9th inning, bot calls a strike, ump overrules and calls a ball, replay on TV proves ump wrong. Nightmare scenario that will inevitably lead to even stricter rules (such as... replays for balls and strikes). There is nothing worse than creating two competing authorities.
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You're misunderstanding. There is no competing authority. There is only one authority - the ump. The computer is not an authority, it's a tool. The fans on TV wouldn't know whether the ump overruled the computer or not. They only see/hear what the ump says/does. Nobody but the ump knows what was said in the earpiece.

So your scenario would be, bottom of the 9th, ump calls a ball, replay on TV proves ump wrong. That's it - no different than today. Except today that kind of crap happens often but in my idea that scenario would be A LOT less common than today.

I also don't think umps would ever overrule the computer unless it's blatantly wrong. Like ball is in the dirt 15 feet away from the plate, the computer calls it a strike for some unknown reason. The umps will want to blame the computer for wrong calls, so they'll just parrot whatever the computer says 99.999% of the time. They'll only overrule the computer when NOT doing so will make them look foolish.
 
oneMadRssn said:
Except today that kind of crap happens often but in my idea that scenario would be A LOT less common than today.
I also don't think umps would ever overrule the computer unless it's blatantly wrong.
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That's exactly the problem. The ump is provided with an almost infallible piece of machinery, which will make overruling a serious issue. The ump will either become irrelevant, or he will be in conflict with the infallible machinery, with the added issue that people will know that the ump might be wrong in overruling the call. It doesn't matter how foolish the call is, by giving all that power to the machine you have created a second authority, putting the ump in a weird situation in which he has to make a relatively quick call against a powerful machine. The only way it could work is if the ump can review the call on a screen whenever he thinks there might be a reason to overrule the call.

(also, if the machine can make a call as the one you stated, I'd rather not have machines involved at all).
 
yaxomoxay said:
The ump will either become irrelevant, or he will be in conflict with the infallible machinery,
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Yea, you're right. That's secretly the goal. The issue is umps union won't go quietly, but with market/fan pressure they might accept a tool that will over a long period of time make them irrelevant and invisible.

yaxomoxay said:
if the machine can make a call as the one you stated, I'd rather not have machines involved at all
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Bad example, maybe more the Randy Johnson Dove scenario is a better example.

Weird stuff happens in baseball from time to time. There are roughly 800,000 pitches per MLB season. Even with 99.999% accuracy (five-nines is the gold standard for computer reliability) that's still 8 mistakes the computer might make in a season. That's many magnitudes fewer mistakes than human umps currently make, but I'd still prefer there to be a non-delaying check on these mistakes.
 
oneMadRssn said:
Yea, you're right. That's secretly the goal. The issue is umps union won't go quietly, but with market/fan pressure they might accept a tool that will over a long period of time make them irrelevant and invisible.


Bad example, maybe more the Randy Johnson Dove scenario is a better example.

Weird stuff happens in baseball from time to time. There are roughly 800,000 pitches per MLB season. Even with 99.999% accuracy (five-nines is the gold standard for computer reliability) that's still 8 mistakes the computer might make in a season. That's many magnitudes fewer mistakes than human umps currently make, but I'd still prefer there to be a non-delaying check on these mistakes.
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Personally, I don't dislike human error in sports, but I can see why people would prefer a machine to make certain calls. However, I think that you're right; 10-15 years from now the home plate ump calling strikes will be history.
 
Honestly, I don't see MLB completing this 60-game season. They couldn't even get through the first weekend without coronavirus rearing its ugly head. I suspect high-contact sports like football - pro and collge - are in deep trouble, whether they admit it or not. I don't care how much money is involved.

There's a lot of whistling past the graveyard these days - with too many people believing they have things under control. And still more believing they can open their mouths, say some words and alter reality. But Covid-19 is still with us and is still spreading.

The truth is, just about everything is toast until we get a vaccine or truly effective therapeutic. I'm figuring that'll be next spring. I'm planning for that and will be pleasantly surprised if things open up sooner.
 
yaxomoxay said:
Personally, I don't dislike human error in sports, but I can see why people would prefer a machine to make certain calls. However, I think that you're right; 10-15 years from now the home plate ump calling strikes will be history.
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I don't mind human error in most cases. The problem is when the human umps stop being neutral and manipulate a game. The stubbornness and antics of many home-plate umps have become a character in the game itself instead of them being a silent officiant. I can forgive a wrong call here and there, but some umps go beyond that.

We see an ump make a wrong call intentionally fairly regularly to make up for a past wrong call in the other direction earlier that inning or at-bat. We see umps suddenly shrink the strike zone when the pitcher does something they don't like, or expand the strike zone when the batter does something they don't like.

That's not just human error, but it happens way too often.
 
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Dodgers pitcher Kelly suspended 8 games for last nights antics. Dodgers manager Roberts suspended 1 game.

How many suspensions come out of tonight's game?
 
ucfgrad93 said:
Dodgers pitcher Kelly suspended 8 games for last nights antics. Dodgers manager Roberts suspended 1 game.

How many suspensions come out of tonight's game?
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Probably none for the Astros as they got a pardon from the commissioner.
 
Do you think there will be a 2020 World Series?
I highly doubt it. This weekend brought more infections and defections. There will be more of both.
Eventually, it will be impossible to make up the "postponed" games due to COVID-19 and weather.
Reports say Miami players violated league protocols in a pre-season trip to Atlanta... 20 somethings not taking the pandemic seriously. Sound familiar? They will never get 100% of the players, to comply with 100% of the protocols 100% of the time. I don't know what percentages are "good enough" but my sense of it is that it would be 90% or more. That won't happen either. My focus on players exposes my age bias. The "adults" (coaches, trainers, etc.) should know better.
 
Gregg2 said:
Do you think there will be a 2020 World Series?
I highly doubt it. This weekend brought more infections and defections. There will be more of both.
Eventually, it will be impossible to make up the "postponed" games due to COVID-19 and weather.
Reports say Miami players violated league protocols in a pre-season trip to Atlanta... 20 somethings not taking the pandemic seriously. Sound familiar? They will never get 100% of the players, to comply with 100% of the protocols 100% of the time. I don't know what percentages are "good enough" but my sense of it is that it would be 90% or more. That won't happen either. My focus on players exposes my age bias. The "adults" (coaches, trainers, etc.) should know better.
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I don’t see a World Series happening much less the 60 game season being finished. It is probably best to shut it down.
 
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yaxomoxay said:
2020 World series might happen...
Just put all the MLB players in a ballpark. Give each on of them a sword.
Last man standing.

I assure ratings will go up.
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Considering the Red Sox can not pitch their way out of anything I bet they lose first.
 
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