I'm having difficulty seeing anything rumoured justify the hype Apple has allegedly released for next week's "Event"
- It can't be a Motorola phone, at least, not the one rumoured. It's just a phone that plays AC3s, it's nice, but it doesn't sound like it's an iPod-Phone combo or anything like that.
- Apple combining with a mobile operator is a nice idea, but it doesn't seem likely. There are only two nationwide GSM operators in the US, T-Mobile isn't ready yet (still upgrading to EDGE) and Cingular, right now, appears to be interested in selling Motorola's phone and that's it. As for non-GSM/UMTS, it'd be insane for Apple to countenance the idea, as if they ever wanted to export the "product" they'd have to redesign it from the ground up, and nobody in their right mind is going to want a phone this powerful that's locked to a carrier and vice-versa. Until Qualcomm forces its licensees (Sprint PCS and Verizon) to get out of the cellular model age, and start using the cdmaOne/CDMA2000 equivalent of GSM/UMTS's SIMs, and open their networks, etc, we're not going to see anything there.
- A video iPod is the chocolate teapot of portable media. I understood iPod Photo as soon as I heard about it, most of my women-friends are always carrying around a library of photos, this is something that will appeal to them. But Apple would, essentially, have to create an entire new market from scratch for portable, personal (ie one person sees it), video in this way. They've not done anything along those lines for a long time (arguably, not since the Newton, which was only a partial success.) They didn't invent or popularize portable music, they merely repackaged MP3 to fit it correctly. They didn't invent or popularize people carrying pictures with them. People do it anyway. Portable movie viewing is, right now, far from popular. If Apple was to enter a new market with the iPod, I see mobile telephony or portable gaming as far, far, more likely.
I don't doubt something is happening on September 6th. I just have massive reservations it's what's speculated. At a guess, it'll probably not be anything that justifies the hype: perhaps a revamp of the iPod mini line with the Motorola phone launched as part of the same thing. The iPod minis are selling well at the moment, but I think Apple could make them a more compelling proposition, given the superiority of the fractionally more expensive iPod "Classic" line. This could be as simple as giving them flash memory, now it's plummetted in price, resulting in battery lives measured in days rather than hours.
It's not quite as dramatic, but couple the phone announcement (with the suggestion of more to come) with some good upgrades, and you have an event. It still lacks something, and I honestly don't know what would be the extra that justifies the hype. One thing's for sure though - it's highly unlikely to be what's speculated.