AmbitiousLemon said:
Neither can I. There's a lot of snake oil in this field right now.
Batteries from all hybrid car makers are designed for the useful life of the car. In tests, Toyota has found that cars run for 150,000 miles still show no signs of degredation in the batteries.
The statistic is irrelevent if you're not taking a holistic view of the total product lifecycle, and this has exactly been my point all along.
The holistic lifecycle view is that the battery is going to wear out eventually. Similarly, at this 'eventual' point, its not going to be a free replacement, because it will be out of the OEM's Warrenty period. As such, to return the vehicle to service will incur a non-zero cost.
For example, Honda warranties for 80K miles, and per a second URL link to the one you provided, "At current prices, Honda would charge out-of-warranty owners about $3,000 to replace the 63-pound Panasonic battery..."
If for sake of arguement we define 'life of car' as twice the warrenty mileage - roughly 150K miles - then a simple linear amortization of that $3K battery replacement cost is $3K/150K miles, or 2 cents per mile.
For the 3 cents/mile Toyota value I mentioned, it doesn't matter if we're talking about a $3000 battery pack that lasts 100K miles, or a $4500 battery pack that lasts 150K miles, or a $6000 battery pack that lasts 200K miles because for a linear "cost per mile" amortization, the mathamatics come out exactly the same.
The bottom line here is that as a professional in the field of Engineering, I know that I can make all sorts of rosy-sounding claims, especially when I put technical loophole escape hatches in them.
FWIW, it also doesn't matter if its 2 cents/mile or 3 cents/mile anyway, because the holistic view is that in most cases, this is really going to be charged against the resale value of the vehicle, just like worn out tires. So instead of the trade-in being worth 10K, its theoretical market value is going to be whatever the vehicle is worth, adjusted by the incrementallly reduced life of its subcomponent systems....tires, battery pack, worn seats, etc, etc.
In other words, the inclusion of the battery pack in a hybrid is simply one more subcomponent factor that will influence the end-to-end operating costs of the vehicle ... and BTW, purely from a "parts count" engineering perspective, because a hybrid is more complex than a conventional ICE, it will always be less reliable and have higher repair costs across its lifecycle too.
This will also be taken into account in the vehicle's residual resale value too.
Also regarding disposal of batterys...
You hopefully noticed that I did provide that particular credit.
Early electric cars were everything that is summed up in that quote. They didn't sell, and what is worse, they gave electric vehicles a very bad image. With modern technology we have electric car prototypes that overcome all of these problems. You can get 80% charge in about the time it takes to refuel a hummer. You can drive 400 miles before needing to recharge. And you can go 0-to-60 in times comparable to your typical muscle car. But electric cars have an image problem, so they are not put into manufacture.
Electric cars have more than merely an image problem: to gain the benefits you list above (particularly the fast-refuel) requires a profound cash investment into our fuel supply infrastructure because of the change in energy medium....and the highly touted "Hydrogen Economy" has the same support/logistics marketplace barrier as well.
Due to the pragmatic investment perspective, we're going to probably stick with a liquid-based fuel for the forseeable future.
Thought you guys would want to see this too...a solar assisted hybrid.
Based on 2m^2 and theoretically being able to "go about 8 km each day on just the suns energy" (from the article), this would suggest that you could commute to/from work based on sunpower alone if you live no more than 4km from work. 4km is 2.5 miles, and with the preexisting constraint that this assumes a "sunny day" for purposed of energy collection, a motor scooter would probably be a better idea, if for no other reason than that a differential cost of $20K for the scooter vs. the solar vehicle, invested at 2% interest would buy $400 worth of fuel per year 'forever', which means that the scooter's break-even would be at ~44mpg, which is very achievable.
What I would really like to see in the short term is biodiesel/electric hybrid cars on the market.
In 2007, we'll have ultralow sulfer diesel, which will be efficiency-wise very competitive to current gas/hybrids, and it will be sufficiently convenient and "turn key" to compete with the status-quo.
I do know that some of the European automakers have looked at diesel/hybrids, including ultra-insulated engines, and the technology leap there is minimal...the biggest hurdle will be the biases of the US consumer against diesel, so d/h's are IMO fairly unlikely to hit the US marketplace until '09 or '10. Of course, perhaps by then, the diesel-based fuel cell research I saw in MA five years ago might be a bit more mature, too...that's the necessary technology to get the parts count down to that which will be competitive with the ICE for purposes of long term reliability and competitive cost-per-mile after it has been fully burdened with all relevent operating costs (not just fuel).
-hh