Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
3G iPhone Pricing to Remain at $399, $499? Launch At WWDC?
- Thread starter MacRumors
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
Somebody who knows what they're talking about. Unlike you.
Time for you to put your big trousers, red nose and face paint on, son.
BongoBanger's profile is interesting. Take a look at the posts. Shows 426 since February, which are almost all negative on iPhone/Apple, and very big on Nokia, Samsung, Dell and HP. Has a very good handle on sales figures of respective companies and links to support positions. Knows the industry well. Too well. What's his industry affiliation. Coming from the camp of paid spinmeisters like Dvorak /Enderle, affiliated with nokia, rim, samsung or microsoft, or just trying to provide quotes/discussions which can be picked up by the financial boards (suspected due to Piper Jaffrey's aapl analyst Gene Munster reference)? Sure is putting a lot of time and effort into his negative position on apple. Again, who is that clown? Here's an example from last week:
"Quote:
Using your statement, "Symbian has had an SDK for years," I would say more importantly, Symbian, Windows Mobile and all of the cell phone makers have had a big head start and many, many chances to do a cell phone right... and look what happens when a company like Apple releases their first cell phone.
It doesn't do that well in the markets where Nokia has a significant presence.
Quote:
The buzz, the press, the high user satisfaction. Just about every TV show features one and now all of the other cell phone makers are trying to make their own "iPhone clone" (and failing at it so far.*) There is something to be said for all of that.
Agree here. However, their also making phones which are nothing like the iPhone too for varying market segments.
Quote:
And it is very much like the iPod market. When the iPod first came out many of the same people that bash on the iPhone had the same argument with the iPod; that there were better MP3 players with bigger storage, cheaper prices and not locked into a certain [Apple's] audio format, and yet with all of that, the iPod STILL took over due to it's elegant simplicity and integration with iTunes... as the iPhone will too.
No for three reasons - iTunes dominated the digital download market and integrated with the iPod, the digital download market was a new market without existing major players and iPods aren't subscription based devices. The iPhone won't dominate for the same reasons the Mac doesn't dominate the PC market - lock in, incompatibility and non-standard features.
Quote:
As for Macs, in case you missed the news, while Apple's laptop sales have been consistently up by 34% for the last couple of years, the rest of the PC laptop industry's sales have been down by 14%, so the Mac line is also gaining market share and will probably have majority share by 2010 if not sooner...
Actually I've studied not just the news but the global PC sales figures. Apple was ninth in global laptop sales and every other manufacturer - with the exception of Toshiba - grew sales by over 30% in 2007. Apple grew sales by 38% which was third behind HP and Asus and about equal with Lenovo in Q4 2007. Global sales of laptops in 2007 grew by 41%.
As far as overall PC sales were concerned, I attach IDC's report:
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp;jsessi...d=prUS21041708
Apple's growth is good but to suggest they'll have a majority share is nonsense. You shouldn't believe the hype particularly when you consider the figures you quote are retail sales and don't include any on-line sales (which is all of Dell's market virtually) and the predictions of Apple's market share are made by Gene 'Comedy' Munster who has a somewhat optimistic view of things. The actual Mac market share is about 6% as per the attached with a comparable user base:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/....stm#pcgraphic
Last edited by BongoBanger : 04-07-2008 at 03:05 PM.
04-07-2008, 03:40 PM
"Quote:
Using your statement, "Symbian has had an SDK for years," I would say more importantly, Symbian, Windows Mobile and all of the cell phone makers have had a big head start and many, many chances to do a cell phone right... and look what happens when a company like Apple releases their first cell phone.
It doesn't do that well in the markets where Nokia has a significant presence.
Quote:
The buzz, the press, the high user satisfaction. Just about every TV show features one and now all of the other cell phone makers are trying to make their own "iPhone clone" (and failing at it so far.*) There is something to be said for all of that.
Agree here. However, their also making phones which are nothing like the iPhone too for varying market segments.
Quote:
And it is very much like the iPod market. When the iPod first came out many of the same people that bash on the iPhone had the same argument with the iPod; that there were better MP3 players with bigger storage, cheaper prices and not locked into a certain [Apple's] audio format, and yet with all of that, the iPod STILL took over due to it's elegant simplicity and integration with iTunes... as the iPhone will too.
No for three reasons - iTunes dominated the digital download market and integrated with the iPod, the digital download market was a new market without existing major players and iPods aren't subscription based devices. The iPhone won't dominate for the same reasons the Mac doesn't dominate the PC market - lock in, incompatibility and non-standard features.
Quote:
As for Macs, in case you missed the news, while Apple's laptop sales have been consistently up by 34% for the last couple of years, the rest of the PC laptop industry's sales have been down by 14%, so the Mac line is also gaining market share and will probably have majority share by 2010 if not sooner...
Actually I've studied not just the news but the global PC sales figures. Apple was ninth in global laptop sales and every other manufacturer - with the exception of Toshiba - grew sales by over 30% in 2007. Apple grew sales by 38% which was third behind HP and Asus and about equal with Lenovo in Q4 2007. Global sales of laptops in 2007 grew by 41%.
As far as overall PC sales were concerned, I attach IDC's report:
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp;jsessi...d=prUS21041708
Apple's growth is good but to suggest they'll have a majority share is nonsense. You shouldn't believe the hype particularly when you consider the figures you quote are retail sales and don't include any on-line sales (which is all of Dell's market virtually) and the predictions of Apple's market share are made by Gene 'Comedy' Munster who has a somewhat optimistic view of things. The actual Mac market share is about 6% as per the attached with a comparable user base:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/....stm#pcgraphic
Last edited by BongoBanger : 04-07-2008 at 03:05 PM.
04-07-2008, 03:40 PM
That's because I believe in doing my research and not falling for the hype. Going through my posts I note that I'm quite clear where I think Apple is missing a trick and where its competitors are stealing market from them because of this.
You can never know an industry too well particularly if you invest in it. All my info comes from readily available sources on the web. The majority of these are from reputable news sources or industry acknowledged agencies not some bloke's blog. If you can't be bothered doing your research and make ignorant statements because of this then that's your affair. Don't expect everyone to be so careless.
I think you need to take off your tinfoil hat. Just because I'm better informed than you doesn't mean I'm an industry spy.
I say it as I see it. Apple are missing a series of golden opportunities and are largely bouyed up by a devoted user base. This isn't a safe place to do business long term, especially when your market capitalisation is dependent on revenue growth which is, in turn, dependent on product evangelism and the goodwill of its user base.
You only have to look in a mirror for the answer to that.
Hey, feel free to quote mine. It beats having opinions of your own. Well, at least in your case it does.
Symbian and WM are operating systems, not cellphone manufacturers just so you know. The point was that there is a mature market for third party applications on multiple platforms which will provide a tough challenge to Apple when they get the fruits of the SDK on line. In other words, success is not guaranteed.
It doesn't. I'm not sure what issue you have with that statement.
There is. There's a lot more to be said for unit sales and subscriptions though.
Right, because you can compare a relatively new market where one player has an absolutely dominant position - and we're talking about the digitial download market in case you're getting confused - and provides a seamless system to a mature market where there are multiple providers with a wide range of units and subscription plans. Well no, you actually can't because by your arguemnt the Mac would dominate the PC market which, of course, it doesn't.
It always helps to know what you're talking about.
See this is the point I made about research. Of the top 10 global laptop manufacturers only Toshiba failed to post yearly growth in excess of 30% - they posted 24% - so, even for the US market where Apple's position is strong, unless you can provide individual figures for HP and Acer - I know Dell is well down - then I'm going to call shennanigans here. The links are actually in your post - although you'll need to dig around for the laptop split as it's not on that summary.
Apple are growing and growing at a good rate but here's what you're missing:
1) High percentage growth on a relatively small sales volume does not mean market dominance is imminent.
2) Comparing different markets (digital downloads to cellphones) and extrapolating results is silly.
Now instead of coming up with crackpot theories you may actually want to do some reading so you don't look... well... silly.
"Just because I'm better informed than you doesn't mean I'm an industry spy."
So you're dodging the question. Never said spy. Said paid poster shilling for a competitor. Again, what's your industry affiliation? Or hedge fund connection? Whose payroll are you on?
So you're dodging the question. Never said spy. Said paid poster shilling for a competitor. Again, what's your industry affiliation? Or hedge fund connection? Whose payroll are you on?
You missed the tinfoil hat part, didn't you?
But, to make it clear, I'm not shilling for anyone - my opinions are my own. And guess what? They're free.
Are yours?
No-one.
Now are we finished with this silliness or do you want to list your theories on 9/11, Roswell and who shot JFK?
"Now are we finished with this silliness or do you want to list your theories on 9/11, Roswell and who shot JFK?"
Nah. Why don't we stick to why you've spent the past two months knocking apple and the iPhone, and singing the praises of nokia, samsung, rim, dell and microsoft. Much more relevant.
Nah. Why don't we stick to why you've spent the past two months knocking apple and the iPhone, and singing the praises of nokia, samsung, rim, dell and microsoft. Much more relevant.
its not ridiculous that the carmea is that "lame"?
why are so many apps out there to change it for the better?
i know the iphone isnt a camera... still from time to time i would like to take some snapshots even in black&white
i guess i did my research very well... (except that i didnt know that the alarm dont work with tunring off and the annoying keypad tone)
and that is such a bad excuse... dont i have the right to turn off the keypad tone will still having a ringtone? sometimes u have to dial a new number which isnt in ur conctact? or saving contact?
yes i can live with it still its not the best solution.
i also could have waited for the 3g version but i didnt. reason?
i needed a new mp3 player as well did i need a new phone... and i dont use 3g anyway even if avaiable
and i dont like to drag around so many stuff... why dont i fusion phone and mp3 player?
and these were MY most relevant points for picking the iphone over the others.
if i would use it as a real smartphone there are way better out there.
btw i said average people... apple buyers are mostlikely not average...
there are even adults out there who doesnt know how internet and mobilephone works... and u wanna tell them to unlock the phone?
btw in germany does the contract cost about 50euro a month thats a bit more than ur lousy 20 bucks. but yeah crap i forgot u guys must have 2much money... sorry for being a poor guy who use his brain to save like 1000euro in 2years.
having a big impact without being a major player?
its not a paradoxon... did apple had an impact on the computer industry?
well answer it for urself... and still they are no big player.
You missed my point about unlocking. The average person won't deal with it because they don't know about it. And because they don't know about it, they won't care.
Well, in Germany, I'm sure you also get paid a little better. In places where the cost of living is higher, generally pay rates are better. For instance, I couldn't afford to live in New York on my salary in Tampa, but if I moved to New York and got a job there, I should be able to.
Your currency is also worth more—which does mean your contract costs more—though because of that your pay is also worth more.
Your point about the camera, I suppose, has some merit. Many phones do have better cameras and more camera options, such as black and white. But, my point is that even the best cellphone camera is still just a crappy cellphone camera. It's not like you're going to make beautiful prints from one. They serve their original purpose well—take a picture and send it to someone else. I'm not defending Apple for failures. You think so because you consider the camera a failure. I don't because I see the camera as fine for a cellphone. I do think there are plenty of other things that they could have done with a number of products, but those points are mostly minor quibbles and nothing that would stop me from using the products. I always want them to be better, but you also have to be realistic. They can only do so much at a time.
I don't know about Germany, but Apple is a major player in the industry. Mac market share is low, but it has been increasing steadily for the past few years. Market share is irrelevant when you consider that everyone copies Apple, including Microsoft. And I seriously doubt that you can refute that Microsoft isn't a major player. Even the phone companies that have had years of cellphone-making experience are starting to copy the iPhone design. Sorry, I consider them a major player. You're important when everyone is looking up at you and trying to figure out how you got there in such a short period of time.
Just to set something straight:
The official iPhone in Germany now starts at a EUR 29,- per month and the salesprice for the 8GB iPhone was just decreased, depending on your service contract, from EUR 399,- to EUR 249 - 99.
http://www.t-mobile.de/iphone/addHandset.do
If Apple comes out with a new 3G iPhone and offers a 32GB version by October, they will certainly have me waiting in line
The official iPhone in Germany now starts at a EUR 29,- per month and the salesprice for the 8GB iPhone was just decreased, depending on your service contract, from EUR 399,- to EUR 249 - 99.
http://www.t-mobile.de/iphone/addHandset.do
If Apple comes out with a new 3G iPhone and offers a 32GB version by October, they will certainly have me waiting in line
It's funny how you accuse me of making "a number of factually incorrect statements", yet you do not even mention one. I would LOVE for you to point out all these "factual errors", since MY ENTIRE POST WAS OPINION! Let's go through all my statements together, and see how incomprehensibly stupid and arrogant that accusation is...
"The N95 is a good device, and it's nice that it has GPS and a better camera than the iPhone."
-opinion
"The iPhone has a MUCH better interface, multi-touch, capactive touch screen, and software platform. The onscreen keyboard is actually really good due to the advanced software and capacitive touchsceen. "
-opinion
"Besides the interface, the "killer app" of the Iphone is going to be the platform. With the release of the Xcode SDK and the new firmware, you can expect to see the platform explode in popularity.. It will really be the best possible software platform for both developer and user."
-opinion
Symbian will never come anywhere near mobile OSX [in functionality], and it will be taken over in popularity for application developers and users alike.
-opinion
The other companies continue to play the game wrong. They keep making newer, better hardware, and adding random features in desperate attempt to provide something like an iPhone. What they don't realize is that the hardware is a small part of the appeal of the iPhone.
-opinion
"Even the companies who think they "get it", like HTC with their Touch phone and "touch flow interface" or Sony with their "Xperia X1" (that you mentioned) that has an animated launcher laid over plain old windows mobile, just don't understand. "
-opinion
"They think they can take any half-decent phone hardware with a touchscreen, and bolt on a half-baked, flashy home-screen over the top of windows mobile or S60, and they'll have an "iPhone-killer". They just DO NOT GET IT."
-opinion
"the iPhone will win because of the consistent, easy to use interface matched with the incredible software platform they have constructed underneath. Oh, and the integration with iTunes that so many are already used to."
-opinion
So, WTF are you talking about?
Oh please.
Your language isn't one of opinon, it's one of someone stating facts - "this will happen", instead of "in my opinion this may happen".
Let's not argue semantics here.
Your language isn't one of opinon, it's one of someone stating facts - "this will happen", instead of "in my opinion this may happen".
Let's not argue semantics here.
OK~ this is what I think:
8GB - $399
16GB - $499
32GB - $599
[this is exactly the same as current iPhones] except an additional 32GB, which makes the cost-per-gigabyte cheaper.
then...
2 months later
8GB - Dropped
16GB - $399
32GB - $499
The prices drop by $100 and phase out the 8GB. If they drop the price by $200 then it's déjà vu. They could also keep selling the 8GB model but that's highly unlikely they'll keep it going at $299.
Next year a 64GB model could be introduced, along with 128GB iPod Touches.
8GB - $399
16GB - $499
32GB - $599
[this is exactly the same as current iPhones] except an additional 32GB, which makes the cost-per-gigabyte cheaper.
then...
2 months later
8GB - Dropped
16GB - $399
32GB - $499
The prices drop by $100 and phase out the 8GB. If they drop the price by $200 then it's déjà vu. They could also keep selling the 8GB model but that's highly unlikely they'll keep it going at $299.
Next year a 64GB model could be introduced, along with 128GB iPod Touches.
please...
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
PTT is the most annoying thing in the world.
Oh please.
Your language isn't one of opinon, it's one of someone stating facts - "this will happen", instead of "in my opinion this may happen".
Let's not argue semantics here.
I don't agree with you often, but I do here. They may be opinions, but they were stated like facts. Usually with opinions people say "I think" or other similar statements.
That's what I was thinking. You know, I don't know much about PTT as I've never even used it, but I'm sure it's able to be turned off, but no one ever does! Why would you want people to be able to talk at you through your pocket when you haven't even answered? Why is it so much harder to just call people? I understand that you can talk to more people, but some phones allow you to conference 9 people at the same time, if you need more than that, just buy some CB radios or something.
Stop right there. It's not going to happen. Not that soon. Don't you remember what happened last time? They won't be doing that again. A $100 difference doesn't matter. It's the 2 months after that was problematic. Besides, I don't think they'll keep the 8GB if they roll out 32GB.
Oh please.
Your language isn't one of opinon, it's one of someone stating facts - "this will happen", instead of "in my opinion this may happen".
Let's not argue semantics here.
Rolling your eyes doesn't make your ******** any less wrong.
"semantics"? The difference between one's speculations or opinions and actual fact is a bit more than "semantics".
And, are you a robot? It appears that you do not understand basic language dynamics... I don't understand how you could interpret forward-looking speculation like "Apple is going to win [the smartphone race]" as a statement of fact. How is it not implicit and entirely obvious that statements like that are purely educated opinion?
Regardless, the bottom line is that you wrongly accused me of making factually incorrect statements because you apparently are incapable of comprehending basic language.
This is true, though, generally people would say: I think Apple is going to win the smartphone race. "Apple is going to win the smartphone race" is stated like a fact. The sky is blue. The Earth is round. "I think the Earth is round" wouldn't make sense.
Anyway, NOW we're arguing semantics. This discussion has become useless. I want my damn 3G iPhone already.
Were you a victim last time?
I waited, and waited. Then there was a price drop... I saw people p!ssed off and made our uncle Steve write a letter, along with $100 rebates. Then I bought my iPhone.
Ach, we'll see if there's going to be another price drop this time. I guess not really, they'll probably introduce higher capacity iPhones then shift the prices down.
There, there dear. Have a nice cup of tea and a lie down. You'll feel much better.