Have you held a Galaxy Z Fold 7 specifically? If not, I recommend it at a Best Buy. As someone that has held most of the Folds at stores, when I saw and picked up the Fold 7, I really got it. It's not thicker. It's not heavier. It's not narrower. It IS a flagship phone that also can double in size.
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Other A Foldable iPhone will Flop
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I did hold it and toy with it at the Samsung store. It is thicker and heavier than what the current technology enables e.g, the iPhone Air. Folded, correct me if I’m wrong, the Fold 7 is 8.9 mm thick.
Yes, they aren't trying to sell hundreds of millions of iPhone Airs and they won't be trying to sell hundred of millions of iPhone Folds.
That is their market. They are not going for a niche. However, Apple has too many products for sale in each category.
The Fold 7 is as thick as a flagship Samsung phone. It’s obviously thicker than the thin focused offerings from Samsung and Apple.
Mac Rumors has been around for a long time. Long enough for people to come onto the forums and post how something Apple is going to release will fail and provide reasonings for it. iPod, iPad etc. yet here we are. Years later and these posts get dug up and presented as artifacts of failed theories. This one will be no different. Apple will sell enough to command the #1 spot. Not more than their pro/max lineup mind you. But more than any other fold in history.
We need less screen time not more. In that view, I will never use a foldable phone. It will just lead to temptation or at best, half of it will not get used. I do not want a screen any bigger than the Pro Max sizes, it makes zero sense. Its a phone, not a work computer. Use the right tool for the job.
I barely use my phone for anything when I am out and about. I use that as micro digital detox. If I am waiting for an appointment, even for 30 minutes, I rarely pull out my phone. We need people to do more of this. I am constantly frustrated by my family when we have family dinner and everyone has their nose in their phone. Take these digital detox breaks, it is good for your health in many ways.
I barely use my phone for anything when I am out and about. I use that as micro digital detox. If I am waiting for an appointment, even for 30 minutes, I rarely pull out my phone. We need people to do more of this. I am constantly frustrated by my family when we have family dinner and everyone has their nose in their phone. Take these digital detox breaks, it is good for your health in many ways.
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Rolex is not publicly traded which allows them to remain a niche brand. Apple is. They MUST ALWAYS....ALWAYS achieve infinite growth.
I honestly don't know why people treat phones this way. How often are you driving or shopping to where you are browsing pictures, or watching videos, or playing games? In such cases where I do have time to do those things, taking a very small backpack with me (or just carrying it) for an iPad is the better experience. A 13" display is better for gaming/watching videos/reading text/etc than even a foldable phone would be.
Where is the line between using a PHONE for multi-tasking productivity work vs just using a iPad? If you are at a position where you unfold a phone to multi-task, just bringing an iPad will make the experience exponentially better.
Convenience, I always have my phone with me but rarely my iPads. Same reason as why people take photos on their phone when a DSLR would be much better.
I can't speak to long-term success, but I think the first gen will sell pretty well.
A lot of people are in love with their phones and want the best that they can buy. There are plenty of reasons to debate whether this will be the best or not, but it will certainly be the most expensive. It will be a bragging point for many. Whether you see it or not, people will buy the most expensive iphone just because it's the most expensive iphone.
A lot of people are in love with their phones and want the best that they can buy. There are plenty of reasons to debate whether this will be the best or not, but it will certainly be the most expensive. It will be a bragging point for many. Whether you see it or not, people will buy the most expensive iphone just because it's the most expensive iphone.
Unless the position you're in makes bringing an iPad along uncomfortable or unwieldy. Then "just bringing an iPad" will make the experience worse.
I think the hinge will be strong enough not to flop.
It's brilliant. If you try one you want one.
Best of both worlds, you put it in your pocket like a phone then you've got a screen on one side and keyboard on the other so a great sized keyboard- if that's what you want. Or one thing on one screen and something else on the other
Open it up, the line down the middle disappears when you are right in front of it and then you've got something the size of an ipad. It's not bigger or heavier than a normal phone
What is there not to like about that?
Foldable smartphones after 7 generations have less than 2% marketshare. You’re sort of saying what I’m saying: this is a niche product. And Apple may take the number 1 spot of a niche market.
The Apple Vision Pro has failed which is what I predicted right after it was announced. Apple cut its own meagre sales forecasts and reviewing AVP user groups shows a pattern of unhappy users due to lack of content and issues with the form factor of the device.
So not every prediction on here is wrong.
My point is that there is an assumption being made that people want to use a tablet across a series of use cases throughout the day.
I am calling that assumption out as false. We know from market research that people do a narrow set of things on a tablet. And we know the top ways people use their smartphone.
A tablet is more awkward to use because it’s bigger and needs two hands to hold and use. Apps and the web are now optimized for smartphones. It’s become efficient to use smartphones, especially as the screens have gotten bigger.
When is "taking the number 1 spot" in a niche market no longer flopping though? I understand that literally nothing outside of Apple releasing it and it selling like gangbusters will change your mind, (and probably not even then), but...
The way I look at it, right now, ~30% of the worldwide population (and an even higher percentage of the worldwide population with the means to buy a $2000 smartphone) won't consider a foldable because Apple doesn't make one. So that 2% of sales doesn't include a large chunk of the addressable market. Not to mention Apple will likely heavily promote it as "our most advanced iPhone ever" and explain why it's so much better than all the other foldables that have come before (even if it's not actually all that much better) to try to upsell people from the base models or the Pros.
2% of global smartphone sales is like 24 million devices a year. Even if Apple only adds 1% to that, it's 12 million devices. Apple sells ~230 million iPhones a year, so 12 million is ~5% of iPhone sales. And for those 12 million devices, the average selling price of the device is roughly equivalent to that one user buying 2 iPhones that year instead one. Assuming the average selling price is $2k (I suspect it will be higher), that's $24 billion in revenue.
And I suspect Apple will, at a minimum, match the current 2% (i.e., the 2% of worldwide sales becomes, at a minimum, 4%). In that universe, the fold is now accounting for 10% of iPhone sales, and Apple is making close to $50 billion in revenue off of the device. So Apple is now making as much in revenue from the foldable as Intel makes as an entire company.
So I guess that's a long way of saying, "sure, it might a niche, but it's a profitable niche."
Your thinking is not that of Apple. What we have seen with the foldable market is that sales have been wayward. They’ve grown and declined and grown etc. It indicates a limited userbase. Product offerings are quite advanced, including the Samsung Z Fold.
There’s nothing on its own, wrong with selling millions of a device. The problem is… is this going to be a sustainable market for Apple or will it fade and die like past convertible products. My position is that it will fade and die, or at least remain niche.
This is a big deal for Apple because the fold will add to an already complex product line and Apple must create a unique software experience for such a device.
And for everyone wanting this fold, why are these same people not also calling for a convertible MacBook?
I will use my new Apple folding phone only when I wear my Vision Pro. LOLOLOLOL!
I guess I don't see why it wouldn't be sustainable. If they are getting 5-10% of iPhone sales to have an average selling price of over $2000, then I think that'd absolutely be worth the cost of creating and maintaining specialized software (that I strongly disagree is a big or even particularly hard lift).
I mean, even if the foldable only accounts for around 5% of all iPhones sold in a year, that is slightly less revenue that to all Macs sold in a year ($30 billion), or all iPads sold in a year ($27 billion), and the average selling price per device will be over 1.5 times higher than the Mac (~$1300) and four times higher than the iPad (~$500). No one says "the Mac isn't sustainable" or "the iPad isn't sustainable." So why would this device be unsustainable? Do you think people will buy it once but then not buy them again because they don't use it? I guess that is possible, but I think probably pretty unlikely given what I see from those who use the Samsung foldable about how great they are.
Anyways, I guess at this point we'll have to agree to disagree. I've said what I'm going to say, and look forward to checking back in a year or two to see how things are going.
Cheers!