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[A] The Agency - GAME OVER -- SPIES WIN
- Thread starter ravenvii
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NAY
QOS is a spy so putting her on the team is a bad choice. If we want an easy win to wrap this game up and move on to the next then just put DP on the team and be done with it. I understand my claims at innocence have no backing even though they are true. Being down 0-1 there would be no reason for a spy to "lay low" during the last mission. It's too risky. I understand all the talk about spies bluffing, but I really think you all are overthinking this potential strategy in the game. It only takes 3 successful missions to win. With no way to coordinate strategy behind the scenes it's extremely difficult for the spies so they need to get as many points as they can as early as they can before the plot cards and voting record starts clearing players.
I agree about the last match - that would have been quite a gamble - and without really achieving or setting up anything. But the first one wasn't really comparable to the ones last game (where you even were the Spy) since it containted only three players so at least there was something that could be said for laying low - although I personally wouldn't have done it either I guess, dunno, depends on the circumstances I guess.
Haha, are you trying to play mind games here? Too bad I never played with you before these [A] games so really hard to read.
I'm not so sure it's a good idea at this point in the game to switch things up.
I agree with @mscriv, I can't see any bad guy voting success to go down 2-0, especially with a no confidence in play and 1 more turn until they would have to have 2 bad guys on the mission for it to fail.
That said, we do have the cushion of a no confidence and the possibility of plots that can clear/find a bad guy if the mission does move forward.
Ok, I'm voting NAY this time. I'm confuse, why not Fenris and DP ? I understand your explanation, but I don't see others more clean than DP. If there's more than one spy in that group, they will all vote fail or loose the game. With a new player like QOS, she knows she have to vote fail and don't really care, so not a good strategy in my book. And the other spy can stay hidden easily.
I think we have two possibilities - either we were very lucky (11.9% chance I got all agents and 2/6 chance 33% that TechGod picked one of the remaining two agents to add to the team) and all the spies are bunched together in the bottom half of the draw or we have a spy or spies hiding.
Not sure what the probability of the spies being bunched together in the bottom half (theoretically it is the same as them being anywhere else given a true random number generator) of the list but its also a big problem for them since the agents could win without them ever having a chance to lead a team. I'm wondering if ravenvii would let that happen or if he'd overrule random.org to mix them a up a bit if it did.
Assuming no spy hid we have TechGod, Twietee, Fenris, WoodNUFC, Don't Panic as agents and we should win this turn by only including them.
If we had a hiding spy (or spies) - what are the possibilities?
I can certainly see a spy hiding in mission 1, thinking they had plenty of time to get the wins and didn't want to risk exposing themselves - especially since Wood had a close eye and would have had a 50/50 chance of revealing them unless of course Wood was the spy.
I'm less convinced of a spy hiding in mission 2 - less likely since letting the agents win this one means the infiltrators have to get all the rest including mission 4 which is trickier needing 2 fail votes and more plot cards would have been used by then.
Taking a closer look at those in Mission 1
Twietee - confirmed by external events as an agent. So that rules him out.
TechGod - confirmed by Wood as an agent - so must be an agent unless both TechGod and Wood are both spies.
WoodNUFC - had the Close Eye card so would have been the safest person to fail on mission 1.
So, if anyone in mission 1 was a spy it was Wood or both Wood and TechGod - if both are spies I can definitely understand mission 1 succeeding as they wouldn't have both wanted to vote fail.
Looking at Wood's list
Although I like the idea of including more players that may feel a bit left out not being a leader or included in any team so far.
If we had no spies included in missions so far then there is only a 1/5 chance that QoS is an agent and a 4/5 chance she is a spy - why take that risk when we only need 1 more success to win?
If we had a spy (or spies) hiding then there is more chance of QoS being an agent and although I like the idea of including more players that may feel a bit left out so far - logically why risk it?
At this point Wood's list is making me seriously consider the possibility he is a spy and 'playing a long game'. Unfortunately that means we can't trust TechGod either (may be misplaced but the only confirmation we have is from Wood). In which case QoS is either a scapegoat (if TechGod is a spy) or a spy (if TechGod is an agent). @Don't panic is probably going to accuse me of looking for unlikely conspiracy theory scenarios for this and I'm willing to back down if everyone else thinks it unlikely.
I'm going to hold off my vote as I want to see what other people think about Wood's list and whether he could be a spy before we move on.
Not sure what the probability of the spies being bunched together in the bottom half (theoretically it is the same as them being anywhere else given a true random number generator) of the list but its also a big problem for them since the agents could win without them ever having a chance to lead a team. I'm wondering if ravenvii would let that happen or if he'd overrule random.org to mix them a up a bit if it did.
Assuming no spy hid we have TechGod, Twietee, Fenris, WoodNUFC, Don't Panic as agents and we should win this turn by only including them.
If we had a hiding spy (or spies) - what are the possibilities?
I can certainly see a spy hiding in mission 1, thinking they had plenty of time to get the wins and didn't want to risk exposing themselves - especially since Wood had a close eye and would have had a 50/50 chance of revealing them unless of course Wood was the spy.
I'm less convinced of a spy hiding in mission 2 - less likely since letting the agents win this one means the infiltrators have to get all the rest including mission 4 which is trickier needing 2 fail votes and more plot cards would have been used by then.
Taking a closer look at those in Mission 1
Twietee - confirmed by external events as an agent. So that rules him out.
TechGod - confirmed by Wood as an agent - so must be an agent unless both TechGod and Wood are both spies.
WoodNUFC - had the Close Eye card so would have been the safest person to fail on mission 1.
So, if anyone in mission 1 was a spy it was Wood or both Wood and TechGod - if both are spies I can definitely understand mission 1 succeeding as they wouldn't have both wanted to vote fail.
Looking at Wood's list
Although I like the idea of including more players that may feel a bit left out not being a leader or included in any team so far.
If we had no spies included in missions so far then there is only a 1/5 chance that QoS is an agent and a 4/5 chance she is a spy - why take that risk when we only need 1 more success to win?
If we had a spy (or spies) hiding then there is more chance of QoS being an agent and although I like the idea of including more players that may feel a bit left out so far - logically why risk it?
At this point Wood's list is making me seriously consider the possibility he is a spy and 'playing a long game'. Unfortunately that means we can't trust TechGod either (may be misplaced but the only confirmation we have is from Wood). In which case QoS is either a scapegoat (if TechGod is a spy) or a spy (if TechGod is an agent). @Don't panic is probably going to accuse me of looking for unlikely conspiracy theory scenarios for this and I'm willing to back down if everyone else thinks it unlikely.
I'm going to hold off my vote as I want to see what other people think about Wood's list and whether he could be a spy before we move on.
I certainly understand where you guys are coming from, but I think you would be remiss to discount the long play. When playing this in person, the spies that try for a quick win are usually the ones that lose quickly.
I may be overthinking it, so if you all want to use the no confidence card or vote this team down, I'll happily support that decision.
I may be overthinking it, so if you all want to use the no confidence card or vote this team down, I'll happily support that decision.
Uh, from what crevice did you pull this conclusion from? I'm an Agent. Not sure how you think just stating something like that as if it's fact with zero proof to back it up (and I know you have none - because I'm an Agent) is a way to get people to follow along or trust you. You're a veteran player, you should know better.
You guys are going off of no evidence or even something to draw an inference from in acting suspicious toward me. If not, please, enlighten me - there's no plot or card or vote that would make me a Spy because I'm an Agent, point blank. I mean, it's not an auto-fail to leave me off because of the abundance of agents, but as we need more people for success it's not in our best interest to make assumptions without anything to back them up.
YAY
This is certainly a possibility. However, if TechGod was a spy then I think he would have put a spy on his team for the purpose of getting a spy point on the second mission. That didn't happen, which lends credibility to the view that he is an agent and in turn WoodNUFC is likely an agent as well since he cleared TechGod and voted success on the first two missions. At this point I'm sticking to my prediction which was previously posted.
Agents - WoodNUFC, Twietee, TechGod, Don't Panic, mscriv, and FenrisMoonlight
Spys - Moyank, QOS, Koodauw, and Sythas
Edit:
The only thing that's really weird is Wood's willingness to gamble on QOS. As Fenris postulated, it could be that he is trying for a really slow play in hiding for two consecutive missions. Just to be safe we could NAY this mission and put together a team where Wood is the only suspect player on it. This would force his hand to vote failure if he is indeed a spy. It would out him and cost us a mission, but then we could follow up with with a winning team to get the third and final point.
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YAY
This, I agree with. I understand it perfectly...and it avoids the "QOS is a spy" thing with no evidence at all. I'm an Agent, but I realize that a) we don't really need to take any chances, and b) based on the way the last 2 turns went, the odds suggest I am nefarious to other players. All I care about is winning, so if it's a No Confidence or I'm replaced, it's all good.
This, I agree with. I understand it perfectly...and it avoids the "QOS is a spy" thing with no evidence at all. I'm an Agent, but I realize that a) we don't really need to take any chances, and b) based on the way the last 2 turns went, the odds suggest I am nefarious to other players. All I care about is winning, so if it's a No Confidence or I'm replaced, it's all good.
I understand his reasoning. Since he's an agent (he claims) and we've had no failures then the 5 players who have been in teams so far he is assuming they are all agents, therefore we know the 6 agents and everyone else is a spy.
TechGod can only be a spy if both Wood is also a spy (since Wood confirmed TechGod is an agent) so in that case he would have put a spy on his team (Wood).
A conjecture ≠ fact, especially in this game, and especially because I know for a fact he's wrong. The part where I have a problem is him posting "QOS is a spy" and not "this is why I think these people could be spies." There's a margin for error which includes me not being a spy. He put little in the way of analysis - although I understand your reasoning and others. The numbers aren't in my favor, but thankfully we don't need me to win. When the game is over, I'll be proven an Agent once again.
I'll admit adding QoS was a gamble. I was willing to take it, because I wanted to include more players in the game. I know that makes me look suspect; I expected as much. This game isn't much fun if your excluded for the entirety. Now, I could be entirely wrong in my team selection, and QoS may well be a spy, but there a number of players in our game that have been left out and I wanted to bring people in.
Honestly though, your plan isn't a bad one, and one I'd be willing to go along with. I'm also willing to give my Close Eye card to Fenris (who has the take responsibility card) to verify my vote in that situation.
Ok, I'm not saying your a spy, I wanted to say if your a spy and there's a spy in the group.
anyway, with a new player, even if it's an agent, the spy in the group can vote fail and all misdirect.
it's hard to explain but We could have messed up the spys (if there's two) by trying both to get only 1 fail and they both voted sucess. My point and only there, IF there's 2 spy's in the group and you put a new spy, that new spy will know to vote fail and keep both on the team and easily get 3 fail, that's why I wanted to keep the team original, so if we have two spys, they will not take any chance and both vote fail, unless the new player (ANYONE) is a spy and knows that he HAVE to vote fail.
But how could we put together a team where he is the only suspect player? The only person who has been truly cleared is Twietee, and we didn't have anything to do with it.
I'm all for naying the mission, but your reasoning is based on every person in the first 2 missions being an agent and that's probably unlikely. Especially based on your list of "spies", which I know to be wrong...
It's possible that Wood is a spy and confirmed TechGod to be an agent in order to build trust and because what other alternative does he have? He could lie and say TechGod is a spy, but that would only confuse us for so long and in the end the lie would out him as a spy. Look, I can only speak from my experience as a spy in the first game. The process of talking in code to each other is really difficult and so this whole notion of being able to coordinate elaborate plans with multiple players hiding or coordinated votes is a lot tougher than you think. That's why I was initially suspicious of Twietee's posts because he did seem to be possibly giving covert signals or signs regarding voting. When you are a spy you really have no idea what your fellow spies are going to do. In our first game Astorboy made moves that I didn't agree with. You have know way of knowing if your fellow spies are even approaching the game the same way you are. I say all of this to point out that it's entirely possible that WoodNUFC is a spy who, for some reason, chose to lay low two votes in a row and TechGod is a confirmed agent.
I'm with the rest here. I really don't see the point of adding QOS. I don't even understand the purpose of adding a new player just so "they won't feel left out"
i read quickly what people have to say, and there are a lot of good point raised, and also a lot of confusing bits.
there are various possible scenarios
a) things are as they seem. meaning that people in teams are agents: that would make 5 agents: twietee (only one 100% cleared), techgod (cleared by wood, voted success once and lead a winning team), wood (voted success twice), fenris (put together a successful team, voted success once) and myself (voted success once).
the track record is so good that it seems too good to be true. it would have required a discrete amount of luck, but it is not impossible.
IF this is the case, the game is basically won, because even if we lose this mission, the next one requires two fails and is managed by tweetie. it means that 4/5 of these presumptive agents would be on the team, which means game for the agent. it is a big IF, but not out of the realms of possible.
if we think this is a real possibility, Yay this mission, and either win the game now (20% chance) or take a hit (if QoS is spy) and go for the win next mission (not to mention that we would get some plotcards (2 or 3? was it decided?) to help.
b) things are NOT as they seem. it means that one ore more of the 5 'agents' who voted success, bluffed, at least once (except in my case, i would have bluffed only once). putting asides mscriv's legitimate reserves on the spies throwing mission two with the game on the balance, it is something we MUST keep in mind
in this case the scenarios are more complex
b.1) we go ahead with this mission and 'test' QoS. IF the mission fails, it is likely she is a spy. or if she is not, the next most likely scenario is that wood set her up and techgod is the insider. third possibility is fenris is playing a long game and took a big risk in game 2. furthermore, if either QoS or the tech/wood are bad, we can freeze them out and still have twietee, wood and myself as more likely agents for the core of mission 4. it means that when we pick two out of sythas, koodauw, mscriv and moyank, we only need one of them to be an agent to win the game (cause of the two fail requirement)
b.2) we scuttle this mission and let twietee put together a team. the most logical being techgod, wood, fenris and myself.
this is basically the same as before with the second most cleared player instead of the most cleared. so the vote would also basically be a repeat of the previous one. exceptagents [edit: spies, obviously] MUST fail this mission or lose the game. this does not address the concern that wood and tech might be in it together
b.3) we scuttle both this mission (wood) and the next one (twietee), so that sythas can put together a 4-men team with only one of techgod and wood: twietee, fenris, techgod and myself, or twietee, fenris, wood and myself. both these isolate and test tech/wood
any of these could fail, obviously, but some are more informative than others.
for obvious reasons i would rather be on the team, so i would be inclined to Nay this one, but i am not totally against yaying it, since both scenario a) and b1) have good chances to lead to a direct win or to a likely one in mission 4.
plus i would avoid the risk of having to deal with the aforementioned weiner....
EDIT: sorry about the bolding, fenris, i see it broke your script again (i didn't vote either yay or nay yet)
edit2: corrected agents with spies. thx fenris
there are various possible scenarios
a) things are as they seem. meaning that people in teams are agents: that would make 5 agents: twietee (only one 100% cleared), techgod (cleared by wood, voted success once and lead a winning team), wood (voted success twice), fenris (put together a successful team, voted success once) and myself (voted success once).
the track record is so good that it seems too good to be true. it would have required a discrete amount of luck, but it is not impossible.
IF this is the case, the game is basically won, because even if we lose this mission, the next one requires two fails and is managed by tweetie. it means that 4/5 of these presumptive agents would be on the team, which means game for the agent. it is a big IF, but not out of the realms of possible.
if we think this is a real possibility, Yay this mission, and either win the game now (20% chance) or take a hit (if QoS is spy) and go for the win next mission (not to mention that we would get some plotcards (2 or 3? was it decided?) to help.
b) things are NOT as they seem. it means that one ore more of the 5 'agents' who voted success, bluffed, at least once (except in my case, i would have bluffed only once). putting asides mscriv's legitimate reserves on the spies throwing mission two with the game on the balance, it is something we MUST keep in mind
in this case the scenarios are more complex
b.1) we go ahead with this mission and 'test' QoS. IF the mission fails, it is likely she is a spy. or if she is not, the next most likely scenario is that wood set her up and techgod is the insider. third possibility is fenris is playing a long game and took a big risk in game 2. furthermore, if either QoS or the tech/wood are bad, we can freeze them out and still have twietee, wood and myself as more likely agents for the core of mission 4. it means that when we pick two out of sythas, koodauw, mscriv and moyank, we only need one of them to be an agent to win the game (cause of the two fail requirement)
b.2) we scuttle this mission and let twietee put together a team. the most logical being techgod, wood, fenris and myself.
this is basically the same as before with the second most cleared player instead of the most cleared. so the vote would also basically be a repeat of the previous one. except
b.3) we scuttle both this mission (wood) and the next one (twietee), so that sythas can put together a 4-men team with only one of techgod and wood: twietee, fenris, techgod and myself, or twietee, fenris, wood and myself. both these isolate and test tech/wood
any of these could fail, obviously, but some are more informative than others.
for obvious reasons i would rather be on the team, so i would be inclined to Nay this one, but i am not totally against yaying it, since both scenario a) and b1) have good chances to lead to a direct win or to a likely one in mission 4.
plus i would avoid the risk of having to deal with the aforementioned weiner....
EDIT: sorry about the bolding, fenris, i see it broke your script again (i didn't vote either yay or nay yet)
edit2: corrected agents with spies. thx fenris
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this is a good point. however, the team could not be kept identical because wood was part of it (it was my original critique of fenris choice in mision 1). the closest would have been the same, with a swap between tech and wood
Yeah - it picked up 'NOT' as an alias for 'NAY'. I'll remove that - no one seems to be using anything other than Yay or Nay
typo in your long post 'agents MUST fail this mission' - I'm sure you mean spies
Yeah - it picked up 'NOT' as an alias for 'NAY'. I'll remove that - no one seems to be using anything other than Yay or Nay
typo in your long post 'agents MUST fail this mission' - I'm sure you mean spies
yep, it was a longass post
Yeah - it picked up 'NOT' as an alias for 'NAY'. I'll remove that - no one seems to be using anything other than Yay or Nay
typo in your long post 'agents MUST fail this mission' - I'm sure you mean spies
And you thought he'd be a competent wiener holder? I'm seriously questioning your judgement right now.
Yeah think you got all the possibilities. I do think we'd be in a better position if Wood hadn't included a wild card.yep, it was a longass post
Something else to think about. If there isn't a spy in the team list, the spies have to vote Nay or they are going to lose. So far Twietee (known agent), mscriv and Sythas have voted Nay. QoS being the only one to vote Yay.
If everything is at it seems and Tech, Wood, Twietee, DP and me are all agents - then there is 1 agent left in Sythas, Koodauw, Moyank, QoS, mscriv. The other 4 have to be spies.
Out of those 5
QoS has voted Yay (makes sense if she is an agent or a spy since she's on the team).
mscriv and Sythas have voted Nay. This doesn't make sense if they are both spies unless QoS is an agent and they are trying to block the team from going ahead.
Does that make sense or I'm I overthinking things?
it does make sense, but also it doesn't help tremendously, since there are so many combinations.