AAPL Opens at $144, Sliding Nearly 10% After Major Revenue Cut and Down 35% Since Early November

[apple_iBoy]

Taking 2 years to make a Mac Pro is a bit silly. Apple needed a dose of reality, and needs to be a bit more competitive both on price and features. I actually thought the new lineup of phones was pretty compelling, but I think they missed it by about 10% on pricing. Products like new AirPods and the powermat thingy really should be out.

The Mac Pro debacle really is mind numbing. The fact that they’re taking so long to design a desktop box (that does not have to be lightweight, that does not need to be razor thin, that does not need to be some weirdo geometry that only fits bespoke non-replaceable parts) tells me that Ive & Co. are off on some stupid boondoggle again.

Meanwhile, the pro market moved on, and invested in other architectures. And when Apple finally gets something out and it fails to sell, they’ll act like the pro market just doesn’t exist anymore.

I remember when Apple had a proud legacy in the high performance computing sphere They consciously and deliberately ceded that to others.

 

[Ryth]

The Mac Pro debacle really is mind numbing. The fact that they’re taking so long to design a desktop box (that does not have to be lightweight, that does not need to be razor thin, that does not need to be some weirdo geometry that only fits bespoke non-replaceable parts) tells me that Ive & Co. are off on some stupid boondoggle again.

Meanwhile, the pro market moved on, and invested in other architectures. And when Apple finally gets something out and it fails to sell, they’ll act like the pro market just doesn’t exist anymore.

I remember when Apple had a proud legacy in the high performance computing sphere They consciously and deliberately ceded that to others.

Agreed..there is NO reason what so ever that a desktop box should have taken this long...you had the blueprint in the towers...shrink that (and use current cases as inspiration) & get it out...it's mind blogging with all those people working for them a simple desktop box is taking this long.

 

[ryanwarsaw]

True. Apple's numbers have just gotten ridiculous. I keep saying, you can only sell so much in a 90 day period. They still did almost $1B/day.

It's hard to step back, but I think you have to look at the overall picture at Apple and be honest with what they can do from a top line growth perspective in any given quarter. Over time, the sales are going to increase, but this overreaction to 1 quarter has just gotten silly.

It isn't just the quarterly results. It is pessimism in general and around China in particular. Apple is one of the riskier stocks to take on right now. I don't think I am the only guy out there that was avidly into Apple looking at safer stocks right now.

I am not certain it is the case but what if the Chinese are avoiding iPhones because of nationalistic saber rattling? I am not sure the run of the mill investor that doesn't live on MR is going to be content to wait for Apple to come up with services. Apple is late to the game.

Now I could be wrong I am just pointing out all of the uncertainties with Apple now and think it could drop a lot further before Apple reports over all revenues are up. If they report another decline in the next two quarters it won't matter they made billions stocks are based on future growth potential.

 

[Solomani]

The stupid trade war. "Oh they're soooo easy to win".

But everything bad about the current US economy…. the trail leads to Gyna. Apple's mistake? They relied too much on Gyna. Placed all their eggs in one communist basketcase.

I've been in the minority opinion that Apple should have started (gradually) weaning itself from Chinese manufacturing long ago. No, not a sudden pullout, that is unrealistic. But they should have had a Plan B to reduce reliance on China as their one-stop-shop factory/market. Yes, it might raise prices (and reduce profits initially) if they transferred some manufacturing back to the USA or even other Western nations (Mexico, Canada, etc), but it would pay off in the long run.

 

[gsurf123]

I think Steve's inertia is starting to wear off. Tim would have been good until they found someone with vision to take over. Tim is a visionless, platitude machine.

This is really getting tired. No one has inertia 7 years after they die. China is the issue here, nothing more. As for a replacement how about a list of possible replacements. Apple went through several after Steve left and they nearly sunk the ship with nothing but horrible decisions.

 

[Baymowe335]

It isn't just the quarterly results. It is pessimism in general and around China in particular. Apple is one of the riskier stocks to take on right now. I don't think I am the only guy out there that was avidly into Apple looking at safer stocks right now.

I am not certain it is the case but what if the Chinese are avoiding iPhones because of nationalistic saber rattling? I am not sure the run of the mill investor that doesn't live on MR is going to be content to wait for Apple to come up with services. Apple is late to the game.

Now I could be wrong I am just pointing out all of the uncertainties with Apple now and think it could drop a lot further before Apple reports over all revenues are up. If they report another decline in the next two quarters it won't matter they made billions stocks are based on future growth potential.

There aren't many safer stocks than Apple. Great profitability, huge buyback, and a very reasonable multiple.

As I recall, you just got into Apple. I wouldn't be already looking to sell it for something else.

 

[triton100]

Angela Ahrendts will be the next Apple CEO.

Bookmark me.

Yep you would kill it in HR. “Angela we need you to turn around apple’s fortunes. What have you got ?”

“Let’s place a tree in all the offices, and watch that stock go north.”

She has no clue about tech. None.

 

[Rogifan]

They can't even produce a wireless charging mat, let alone an innovative device.

This is such BS. If Apple’s devices aren’t innovative than nobody’s are.
[doublepost=1546530892][/doublepost]

Yep you would kill it in HR. “Angela we need you to turn around apple’s fortunes. What have you got ?”

“Let’s place a tree in all the offices, and watch that stock go north.”

She has no clue about tech. None.

Which is why she’s running retail and will never be CEO of Apple.

 

[swester]

Hey, for once I actually made a decent call when I sold at around $215! I had a feeling that it wouldn't stay a "trillion dollar company" for too long...

Now the question is when to buy back in...if ever.

 

[triton100]

This is such BS. If Apple’s devices aren’t innovative than nobody’s are.
[doublepost=1546530892][/doublepost]
Which is why she’s running retail and will never be CEO of Apple.

Exactly

 

[Baymowe335]

Okay I am considering what to do. We all know they made great money but that isn't how Wall Street works. If they didn't sell out this quarter over the holidays when the phones should have been hot, what will the next quarters bring? It isn't likely sales will spike. They have no services to speak of yet. They have an inability to deliver even the simplest product such as new Airpods. Buying Apple right now is like sifting through garbage. It just isn't that hot tech stock anymore and that will change the way a stock trades. Why not simply buy a stock that has less downsides unless one is emotionally attached to Apple?


Then you have things Apple has no control over, such as the trade war. You are right expectations are insane, they are also enforced by trading algorithms that are swift and emotionless.

Give me the stocks that have less downside than Apple, which is already down over 40%? Apple is still printing money every quarter and has $240B in cash. They can survive an economic downturn.

You say they have no services, but that business is growing at 25% and will be a $50B business in the next year. They just did nearly $11B in services this quarter. We can argue about what a "service" is, but the services business at Apple is doing incredibly well.

 

[iAVERY]

I’d be buying shares here.

Apple didn’t buy back many shares in calendar Q4. Get all the bad news out and start buying back stock hard. They have $71B left in their buyback authorization from May 2018.

The numbers didn’t look that bad in other areas:

19% non iPhone business growth.
25% services growth.
50% wearables growth.
Double digit iPad growth.
Record iPhone revenues in US, Canada, Germany.

This is an iPhone in China story. They will have to fix that, but the world isn’t ending at Apple.

$250 in 18 months just wait. This is just like what happened in 2015. long term trend looks fine. This is a healthy wake up call to apple. Maybe they should care about the Mac and step up the innovation. We all know here that they hold back each year. this is good for investors and customers which I'm sure on here there is a lot of both.

 

[Doomtomb]

Fire Cook

 

[Baymowe335]

Yep you would kill it in HR. “Angela we need you to turn around apple’s fortunes. What have you got ?”

“Let’s place a tree in all the offices, and watch that stock go north.”

She has no clue about tech. None.

Do you know how business works? Not every employee at Apple, and certainly not the head of retail, needs to be a tech expert. She's done a great job with Apple Retail, period. Just look at the results.

 

[iAVERY]

Angela Ahrendts will be the next Apple CEO.

Bookmark me.

you probably right. Either that or Craig.

 

[WatchFromAfar]

This is really getting tired. No one has inertia 7 years after they die. China is the issue here, nothing more.

How come it's not "Apple is the issue here"? Apple does it's manufacturing in China, Apple allowed Chinese iPhone user's iCloud storage to be held on Chinese servers. Apple produced iPhone colours that are popular in China, Apple went for iPhone sizes that are preferred in China. Apple chased the Chinese market and now it may not be working out for them suddenly it's China's fault!

 

[ntlman]

This is a real turning point for Apple, post-Jobs. They seem to be at the same point they were in the early 90s by simply iterating their core product to death (Centris/Performa/Quadra/Classic = iPhone 6s/7s/8/X/XS/Xr).

The near death-blow in the 90s was Apple being completely unprepared to compete with Windows 95, which gave PC users a credible, Apple-like OS that was worlds away from Windows 3.1. It was only until the nadir of 1997 that Steve Jobs was able to come back and save the company. He's not coming back now.

Personal observation from the soft sales of the X models vs the continued strength of the 6s/7/8 models: most people don't like Face ID? I know I have no interest in it, after having seen it in use for over a year now. I also saw over the holidays how much easier parents had it unlocking their non-Face ID iPhone for their kids without having to stop what they were doing (not to mention in the car). The Android phones have figured out how to put the fingerprint sensor under the screen glass. If the iPhone X had an under the glass version of Touch ID instead of the Face ID tech, I would definitely be more interested in an X model. As it stands, I will probably upgrade my 6 up to no farther than an 8 when I next upgrade.

 

[ryanwarsaw]

There aren't many safer stocks than Apple. Great profitability, huge buyback, and a very reasonable multiple.

As I recall, you just got into Apple. I wouldn't be already looking to sell it for something else.

I am holding it and have traded it back and forth to get my costs down. Apple has been easy to do this with because it always goes down on all news good or bad and has a little bounce back. I got in at $223 when i first started playing the market. Talk about awkward timing. I managed to average down to the point where I am not underwater too badly.

I still hold AAPL as a core position. But I do a lot of trading around that position to keep it sort of healthy. The average person can't watch the market all day. Let's see what they announce later this month but i might be a little nervous to increase my exposure before then. With Apple lately I have been treading water, while with others i have been making profits and have been able to increase my positions slowly doing so.

What do you think will happen if Apple sells even fewer phones in the upcoming quarters? I think this is a very likely scenario.

 

[robjulo]

You are kidding yourself. It's both....but a huge portion of it is Apple.

It's not just an Apple thing, more of a larger economy thing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technol...s-to-look-at-apples-surprise-bad-news/579334/

 

[ryanwarsaw]

This is a real turning point for Apple, post-Jobs. They seem to be at the same point they were in the early 90s by simply iterating their core product to death (Centris/Performa/Quadra/Classic = iPhone 6s/7s/8/X/XS/Xr).

The near death-blow in the 90s was Apple being completely unprepared to compete with Windows 95, which gave PC users a credible, Apple-like OS that was worlds away from Windows 3.1. It was only until the nadir of 1997 that Steve Jobs was able to come back and save the company. He's not coming back now.

Personal observation from the soft sales of the X models vs the continued strength of the 6s/7/8 models: most people don't like Face ID? I know I have no interest in it, after having seen it in use for over a year now. I also saw over the holidays how much easier parents had it unlocking their non-Face ID iPhone for their kids without having to stop what they were doing (not to mention in the car). The Android phones have figured out how to put the fingerprint sensor under the screen glass. If the iPhone X had an under the glass version of Touch ID instead of the Face ID tech, I would definitely be more interested in an X model. As it stands, I will probably upgrade my 6 up to no farther than an 8 when I next upgrade.

Apple isn't on the brink of bankruptcy. Steve has been dead for awhile now his death is priced into the stock already.

 

[gsurf123]

How far must the company fall before they realize their current leadership is bad for business? It's never been good, but we've never seen it because they've been going off Job's playbook until recently. His playbook is exhausted, so now Apple is left with chasing other technologies rather than innovating them.

They can't even produce a wireless charging mat, let alone an innovative device.

The innovation argument is just plain ignorant. Amazon is a retail store selling other peoples stuff along with AWS. They also sell some gadgets of which we have no details what their sales are. Same for Google (except their products are rarely finished). Microsoft is the same old software company that sells a game system and some computers (tagged as ultra high priced by most Windows users). Netflix sell subscriptions and makes movies (nothing innovative there either). The model for most innovative companies is to put out as many products as possible (even if most are marginal and unfinished) and hope that something sticks. Apple was late to market with HomePod and should have been ahead of the game with some type of FaceTime device that is not tied to a computer or phone (like the Echo Show). They also blew the lead on Siri.

 

[mikethemartian]

The person they need is Steve Jobs, who they will not find in upper management. They probably currently employee a thousand Steve Jobses, who are all busy doing the job they were hired to do, with no way of utilizing greater vision.

Noah Wyle will be the new Apple CEO.

 

[nburwell]

Yes, there are trade issues with China (which I believe has put a damper on Apple products in China). But Apple certainly isn't doomed. Yes, they will need to figure out their standing with China. But they also need to concentrate on other areas of business besides just the iPhone.

Who knows, maybe things will change once Apple introduces their TV streaming service. Their services group definitely seems like the most likely to grow substantially.

 

[canny]

Tim Cook is a warehouse manager who got lucky. There’s no way he should be in charge of a company of Apple’s size.

 

[Heat_Fan89]

For Apple, they just need to keep buying back shares and keep pushing. $84B in sales isn't growth, but it also isn't a failing business as the stock price this morning would indicate.

As long as stock prices continue to go up and up, that's a good strategy. When stock prices go down it works against them. According to a recent ZeroHedge article, Apple has lost $14B and counting in 2018 stock buybacks.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-03/apple-shares-tumble-9-lowest-level-july-2017

"Absent that of course, Apple can just burn a few hundred billions more on buybacks - after all the company has already lost $14 billion (and rising) on the stock it repurchased in 2018."