Adobe Backpedals on Commitment to Bring Metal to After Effects

[PinkyMacGodess]

Adobe is slowly eroding themselves with their dominant position behavior (pricing, product bloat, lack of actual product improvement, etc). Some day they will become sort of irrelevant. At the very least, their strangle hold on the graphics market will end as multiple competitors (on multiple fronts) catch up and make their peoducts more compelling (probably on the expense front, first and foremost).

I quit Adobe after CS4. The price of upgrading, and the lack of a clear reason to upgrade made the choice easy.

The beating all Adobe users took as they took their eyes off the Mac market was another nail in their coffin here. And now this...

I'm glad that we never upgraded past CS4. As long as the apps keep working (and that means Adobe's licensing still functions as the apps won't run without a connection to their mother ship) we will be happy to use them. When they stop functioning, either through Adobe's action, or Apple's OS X not supporting them, we will look for other apps from other vendors to fill the void. It's not like there aren't alternatives...

If Adobe would just get out of its own way to support the Mac market...

 

[PinkyMacGodess]

Technically, there is. It's called the stock market.

Any company that is publicly traded, and has at least 50% of its stock on the open market, could theoretically be purchased in a hostile takeover by just buying enough stock. This of course only works if at least 50% of the shares are actually sold to you, so almost by definition will drive the price up to a significant premium. Which is why when publicly held companies are purchased, it's almost never done this way, and hostile takeovers are rare--usually you talk the board into selling the company at a modest premium, so existing stockholders will willingly go along with it for their own financial gain.

At a $42B market cap, Apple probably could buy Adobe if they really wanted to--the company has almost unfathomable amounts of cash--but the price would be twenty times higher than the largest company they've ever purchased to date, Beats. It would be a huge purchase, with highly questionable benefit to Apple--the chances of them getting as much out of the purchase as they'd have to put into it are slim.

Even three years ago, when Adobe had a market cap of "only" $11B, it would still have been an uncharacteristically huge purchase for Apple

Ahh, but it would help Apple burn through their off-shored money stash...

Plus a cash rich corporation makes for a very tasty takeover target.

 

[PinkyMacGodess]

No surprise—they've been neglecting bug fixes in all their apps for years. And yet....

Adobe Remains Firmly Committed to Charging Your Account Every Month Forever

(And are we truly to believe Adobe ONLY JUST NOW watched the keynote from a month ago, and suddenly realized something was said that "wrong all along"? Or did they perhaps know that very day exactly what was said, and KNOWINGLY let it stand for a month before backpedaling?)

Why on Earth did Adobe think they were invited on stage? To show off some experiments that might be impractical in the real world? No. Apple wouldn't promote Adobe to the world while making their own Metal look bad in that way. They were on stage because they were committed to using Metal. Backpedal. Maybe they shouldn't have pretended they were ready to commit, but they just really wanted some of that Apple PR buzz?

Who thinks Adobe's going to be on stage next time?

I remember a joke about the IBM mainframe business. They were running against many companies in that genre, and were getting the habit of 'pre-announcing' features months, and years in advance.

The joke went something like this: On the wedding night, the new bride sits on the bed telling her husband just how great the sex is going to be in 12 to 18 months when the new system ships...

I read the thread at Adobe. I think that you have a case of the engineering department that is impressed with this Metal tech, and the sales and niche app department that doesn't see the rush, or need to support the new tech due to history, and corporate political climate.

I thought that the 'War On Flash' was political, and part of it was, but Adobe has been far more 'reactive' than 'proactive' and it shows...

I am surprised, but perhaps not, that TCook Apple is giving Adobe a soap box and valuable time at WWDC.

If Adobe has one division for AE, than perhaps they need a restructuring and have a Windows and a Mac group to exploit BOTH platforms best features. Also, has anyone heard about Apple's lifecycle for Metal? It seems, to my memory, that Apple is somewhat fickle in their features...

 

[Makosuke]

Ahh, but it would help Apple burn through their off-shored money stash...

Plus a cash rich corporation makes for a very tasty takeover target.

Those things are technically true. Except, if we're going to go playing armchair mergers and acquisitions experts (not like any of us actually has any idea what's involved in the decision to buy a multi-billion dollar company):

1) Wouldn't they need to pay taxes to onshore it in order to buy US stock anyway? (Maybe not; I don't know how that works.)

2) Regulatory issues aside, there's no question Apple has the money to buy Adobe if they really wanted to. But $50 billion is still an absolutely massive sum of money, and an order of magnitude larger than anything Apple has ever bought, so integrating the culture and products would be something entirely new for the company, and probably harmful to both.

3) Where is the return on investment (Apple is publicly held, after all)? The Mac makes up a small enough part of Apple's financial picture that justifying buying a $42B company to bolster the Mac's share in the professional creative space is highly questionable at best, and Adobe's method of profiting from its products are completely at odds with the way Apple sells software. They already own Logic and Final Cut as direct Adobe competitors, and their pricing and distribution model with those products is now the exact opposite of how Adobe makes money off its products.

4) Are you implying Adobe is cash-rich? They have about $2B in debt and $3.5B cash on hand for a $42B market cap. Not high at all.

 

[PinkyMacGodess]

Those things are technically true. Except, if we're going to go playing armchair mergers and acquisitions experts (not like any of us actually has any idea what's involved in the decision to buy a multi-billion dollar company):

1) Wouldn't they need to pay taxes to onshore it in order to buy US stock anyway? (Maybe not; I don't know how that works.)

2) Regulatory issues aside, there's no question Apple has the money to buy Adobe if they really wanted to. But $50 billion is still an absolutely massive sum of money, and an order of magnitude larger than anything Apple has ever bought, so integrating the culture and products would be something entirely new for the company, and probably harmful to both.

3) Where is the return on investment (Apple is publicly held, after all)? The Mac makes up a small enough part of Apple's financial picture that justifying buying a $42B company to bolster the Mac's share in the professional creative space is highly questionable at best, and Adobe's method of profiting from its products are completely at odds with the way Apple sells software. They already own Logic and Final Cut as direct Adobe competitors, and their pricing and distribution model with those products is now the exact opposite of how Adobe makes money off its products.

4) Are you implying Adobe is cash-rich? They have about $2B in debt and $3.5B cash on hand for a $42B market cap. Not high at all.

Apple is cash rich. It was a tangent on the talk that someone would buy Apple. For the cash...

Regulator issues? They would likely be given full approval to buy Adobe. They aren't true competitors...

Return on investment? Killing Flash would be reward enough. Excising the Windows programs, or just putting the Apple badge on 'New and REALLY IMPROVED Adobe products for Macintosh' would be worth it too...

Heck, just buying them, and killing them would be enough revenge, not to mention 'humane'. Microsoft did that many times to companies they disliked. They either bought them outright, or destroyed their market and watched them suffocate...

 

[Makosuke]

Heck, just buying them, and killing them would be enough revenge, not to mention 'humane'. Microsoft did that many times to companies they disliked. They either bought them outright, or destroyed their market and watched them suffocate...

Ain't that the truth. Although Microsoft almost always bought and killed companies that were actively competing with them in some market or theoretically going to compete with them in some other area. Adobe, other than Flash, is not in that category, and Apple is doing pretty well killing Flash without spending a penny.

Microsoft also, to my knowledge, never bought any $40B companies just out of spite or monopolistic protection. Even at the company's peak, that was over 10% of the market cap of the entirety of Microsoft.

Interesting aside about Adobe: Their stock price, aside from a relatively short crash and recovery, had been fluctuating around roughly the same range between 2005 and 2013. It started an upswing in mid-2012, but at the point in 2013 that Adobe officially killed everything but Creative Cloud, the stock price was still a little below its all-time high. Since that day, the stock has gone almost nothing but up, and is now around 80% above where it was a couple years ago. So the subscription pricing model has certainly been kind to their shareholders, although net profit has been flat and margins are actually down.

 

[PinkyMacGodess]

So the subscription pricing model has certainly been kind to their shareholders, although net profit has been flat and margins are actually down.

I'm sure it has.

There was an AWESOME, and I do mean AWESOME golf range here. They had everything computerized, you had a smart card that you could reload at any time, and the 'points' never expired.

Between the lines here to make sure you all understand: You filled the card with points (1$ = 1 point) and they never expired. At the risk of belaboring that last point, they never expired. IE: You 'bought' the product.

So, the VAST majority of their customers 'filled their cards', and either spent all the points, or never did, but they apparently never came back either to 'buy more points'.

The company was gone within three years.

Even their training with 'PGA Pros' wasn't enough to save them...

The new owners instituted a flat fee per month, with two months free if you got a year package, and ditched the computer smart cards, and made a butt load of money, but eventually they died too, which is another story... (They also had no limit on the number of balls you could hit. You could stay out there all day. They had vending machines for the $2.00 Cokes and the $2.50 pretzels. Some people thought that was a hell of a deal)

But the 'subscription method' (or monthly fees) made the second owners a lot of money. So much so, they reportedly sold the business and went south. Caribbean south... The building now houses a fundie church. No kidding.

I doubt highly that the people that bought the subscriptions used the place any more than before, but the business had the money upfront, and that's what mattered. And apparently enough to make a 'killing', and leave this poop hole town.

(Proof that you can screw the people silly, as long as they think they are getting something better for it. Aside from being screwed)

Back to your regularly scheduled programming...

 

[wideEyedPupil]

Dreamweaver has got to be the worst of the products I use. Which is why I use Coda at home.

Sorry for you that someone makes you use DW

 

[wideEyedPupil]

I'm sure it has.

There was an AWESOME, and I do mean AWESOME golf range here. They had everything computerized, you had a smart card that you could reload at any time, and the 'points' never expired.

Between the lines here to make sure you all understand: You filled the card with points (1$ = 1 point) and they never expired. At the risk of belaboring that last point, they never expired. IE: You 'bought' the product.

So, the VAST majority of their customers 'filled their cards', and either spent all the points, or never did, but they apparently never came back either to 'buy more points'.

The company was gone within three years.

Even their training with 'PGA Pros' wasn't enough to save them...

The new owners instituted a flat fee per month, with two months free if you got a year package, and ditched the computer smart cards, and made a butt load of money, but eventually they died too, which is another story... (They also had no limit on the number of balls you could hit. You could stay out there all day. They had vending machines for the $2.00 Cokes and the $2.50 pretzels. Some people thought that was a hell of a deal)

But the 'subscription method' (or monthly fees) made the second owners a lot of money. So much so, they reportedly sold the business and went south. Caribbean south... The building now houses a fundie church. No kidding.

I doubt highly that the people that bought the subscriptions used the place any more than before, but the business had the money upfront, and that's what mattered. And apparently enough to make a 'killing', and leave this poop hole town.

(Proof that you can screw the people silly, as long as they think they are getting something better for it. Aside from being screwed)

Back to your regularly scheduled programming...

wtf is your point or are you saying even?

 

[PinkyMacGodess]

wtf is your point or are you saying even?

It's an allegory... I story about why Adobe switched to the subscription idea for their software. They are making a killing, 'selling' their software to users every month. It wasn't enough to 'sell' the boxed software. It wasn't a 'viable profit stream', especially after many mac users dumped their Adobe products and went elsewhere for tools to get their tasks done.

But 'selling' the software every month, or every year, is a much more predictable 'profit stream'. They 'live' off of the subscriptions... And ignore users again... And pull crap like this threads topic... Selling you the software. Every month...

Allegory: As a literary device, an allegory in its most general sense is an extended metaphor. Allegory has been used widely throughout history in all forms of art, largely because it can readily illustrate complex ideas and concepts in ways that are comprehensible or striking to its viewers, readers, or listeners.
Writers or speakers typically use allegories as literary devices or as rhetorical devices that convey hidden meanings through symbolic figures, actions, imagery, and/or events, which together create the moral, spiritual, or political meaning the author wishes to convey.​

 

[RoboCop001]

Sorry for you that someone makes you use DW

Your sympathies are greatly appreciated haha.

The stupid thing doesn't even let me undo typing after I Put to a server! Super annoying for testing things out. And it's insanely slow.

Coda on the other hand.... Perfect. I just wish they hadn't removed Dropbox sync from the iOS version.

 

[wideEyedPupil]

I avoid Adobe Lightroom and Photoshop like the plague because they are too slow. If they ever get their act together one day and speed things up, I'll consider coming back.

some of us have no alternatives. it sux that in X years even if I'm not earning a cent I'll be having to shell out $50 a month or more to look at my old CC files. Can't wait for those guys making the PS, AI and ID replacements to get finished. AE has plenty of nodal based alternatives already.

 

[wideEyedPupil]

It's an allegory... I story about why Adobe switched to the subscription idea for their software. They are making a killing, 'selling' their software to users every month. It wasn't enough to 'sell' the boxed software. It wasn't a 'viable profit stream', especially after many mac users dumped their Adobe products and went elsewhere for tools to get their tasks done.

But 'selling' the software every month, or every year, is a much more predictable 'profit stream'. They 'live' off of the subscriptions... And ignore users again... And pull crap like this threads topic... Selling you the software. Every month...

Allegory: As a literary device, an allegory in its most general sense is an extended metaphor. Allegory has been used widely throughout history in all forms of art, largely because it can readily illustrate complex ideas and concepts in ways that are comprehensible or striking to its viewers, readers, or listeners.
Writers or speakers typically use allegories as literary devices or as rhetorical devices that convey hidden meanings through symbolic figures, actions, imagery, and/or events, which together create the moral, spiritual, or political meaning the author wishes to convey.​

I know allegory, I don't know about your skilz with said device though

 

[wideEyedPupil]

will you ever offer options for one time licence purchase?

when I retire or take a break I still want to be able to access my files without paying adobe >$1000 a year!

Adobe is firmly committed to performance because it accelerates creativity - Adobe is also firmly committed to the Mac platform. We share as much as we can about the directions we’re exploring and will continue to try and set realistic expectations about when specific advancements will come to market. When we demonstrated what was possible, we made a clear statement - which I repeat here: "Adobe is committed to bringing Metal to all of its Mac OS Creative Cloud applications, such as Illustrator and After Effects I showed you today, as well as Photoshop and Premiere Pro. We are very excited to see what Metal can do for our Creative Cloud users."

David McGavran
Director of Engineering
Adobe Professional Audio and Video

 

[navaira]

some of us have no alternatives. it sux that in X years even if I'm not earning a cent I'll be having to shell out $50 a month or more to look at my old CC files. Can't wait for those guys making the PS, AI and ID replacements to get finished. AE has plenty of nodal based alternatives already.

This indeed terrible. I had a graphic design business for two years, but I became really sick for months and the business nosedived. When I contacted Adobe to cancel my subscription I was offered VERY attractive price to stay. And I stayed. Because what do you do? You've got all those files in CC 2013 (or whatever) version that CS6 will not open anymore. Creative Cloud became a bit like OS X or iOS – no downgrading baby.

 

[PinkyMacGodess]

I know allegory, I don't know about your skilz with said device though

But I tried...

 

[fuchsdh]

This really isn't that surprising, given how cruddy AE has become (and the gall of Adobe to release a product without multiprocessing as a "new version" you should use, then telling you to render out of the old version.)

I highly doubt CC 2016 is going to be the speed improvement we've been promised for years. Why would they actually get Metal working in a timely fashion?

Unfortunately unlike most of the suite there's no replacement for AE for what I do. If Apple put more people into its app development Motion possibly could be, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that score.