My thoughts on waiting on each upgrade was too optimistic, things could be changing. Waiting 2 or 3 versions could be over after this year.
...
Does that mean from then on, you can only upgrade from one full version behind? So say CS5 users won't be able to upgrade to CS7?
At this point, I'd bet that it is partly scaremongering on their part, in order to try to post a good 4Q12 number for stockholders.
But you are indeed correct that Adobe is cracking down on "skip upgrades": I expect that after 12/12, what won't be scaremongering in the above is the upgrade availability for CS3 owners ... I fully expect that one to go POOF.
What Adobe seems to be on the path to is to only permit upgrade pricing for the prior two generations...this would allow CS5 for CS7, but it wouldn't permit CS4 for CS7.
Adobe's greatest competition is themselves. It's entrenched and the market is saturated by their own product. That's why the product is bloated. They're not trying to create the best tools; they're trying to repeat sell the same thing, each year or so, to the same people. Why do you think the pricing is getting worse for those who prefer to skip versions & buy separate applications?
Bingo.
Frankly, I've lost interest. I love photoshop, but only just. It's become bloated, slow, filled with junk I don't want and I'm aware of how much a waste of resources that junk is because I've watched it get added over the years. The only thing that compells me to ever upgrade any more is that my OS forces me to, or I can get some kind of excellent deal (which I won't get any more, since I'm now unemployed & not a student). They've repeatedly added undesirable crap to their product line up and I'd rather keep a machine stuck at an older OS generation as long as possible than waste money & system resources on the latest attempt to resell the same stale crap.
I'm in a similar situation: I'll be upgrading to CS6 ...not because I want to, but because I know that I need to because I'm running CS4 and am stuck with the "Now Or Never" upgrade extorsion.
The industry is stagnant and Adobe takes advantage of users' limited options by repeat selling the same crap & increasing pricing while offering barely anything of significance other than "the right to keep using the tools." Sound familiar? There are a few other notable companies doing the same.
It indeed most certainly does...and taking a class at a local college to get "Student Discounts" is going to become the next strategy for those Photoshop users who want to use the same tool at home as they've been using at work, etc.
Subscription licensing is the only way dominant companies can continue *increasing* profits every year & the only companies that can force the market to accept it.
If priced correctly, it can be a win-win ... but the challenge is in figuring out the right price for the non-business consumer - - particularly when the license terms often carry the stipulation that the software goes "POOF" as soon as you stop making monthly payments.
That's why the software is pirated so much. Users (individual & corporate) know they're being abused & no one wants to spend much money on intangible things when tangible things are far more compelling. The best solution is to stop abusing the users with high cost & anti-piracy/user BS. But developers like Adobe won't reverse their direction. It's beyond their corporate culture's ability to comprehend.
I used to believe in Adobe enough to locally champion buying Adobe licenses in our office as part of an end-of-fiscal-yet legitimization campaign. These days, I just keep myself legit and choose not to look beyond my nose at what other coworkers may be doing to manage their licenese.
7 years ago I got CS3 which included every app for $1,299. Now to get that I have to spend $2,500 almost double.... Someone got greedy
Oh, it gets worse: my personal Adobe licenses came from a bundle that was sold just before the CS series started .. and Adobe said that despite having multiple valid licenses of all of the usual suspects that I wasn't even eligible for an upgrade into the CS family - - except at the price offered for customers who only had a single (eg, Illustrator) license. That was when I strategically started abandoning those Adobe apps that I only rarely used.
-hh