I think you should review Apple's current sales breakdown and the projections for the future. Here, let me do it for you:
1Q 2010: Apple sold 3.36 million Macs (up 33%), they sold 8.7 million iPhones (up 100%) and 21 million iPods (down 8%). Apple is expected to sell over 40 million iPhones this year alone. Are you with me so far? Now, conservative estimates peg the iPad between 3 and 7 million for the first year. Of those 3.36 million Macs, how many do you think were sold to the publishing sector and art educational institutions? Apple doesn't give you those numbers, but I'm betting they are a static number, so the 33% increase is coming from somewhere else. Do the math. The percentages in that one sector are certainly declining and thus their importance to Apple's bottom line.
Your point about the iPad not being useful for development work is irrelevant to the importance of the product for Apple's future profits. You miss the point entirely. The point is that Macs being sold to professionals for professional work are currently a small percentage of Apple's overall profits, and with the advent of the iPad and possibly future mobile products are going to be even less so. Apple can clearly afford to lose the segment that Adobe services, because it's not as important to them as it once was. Adobe's future earnings however are intimately tied to it's Flash technology and now that is in jeopardy because Apple refuses to support it.
I'm sorry you're afraid that you might end up on a PC, but that's the way it goes I guess. Maybe you can join the chorus of folks hoping Apple will buy Adobe, but I wouldn't bet on it. If Adobe wants to cut off it's nose to spite it's face then I'm pretty sure Apple will let them.
I stand by my original proposition that Adobe needs Apple more than Apple needs Adobe. Apple is a 50 billion dollar company now. They didn't achieve that success by selling Macs to the publishing world.
True. Adobe can pull out tomorrow and it would change very, very little for Apple. In fact, I'd love to see Apple come up with their own Suite. If the other apps are anything like Aperture, FCP, Logic Pro . . . WOW. And we all know how Apple does integration.
I always find it amusing that Adobe shares its name with a specific type of mud, which they now appear to be stuck in.
The top five U.S. publicly-traded companies:
1. Exxon Mobil (XOM) - $324.16B
2. Microsoft (MSFT) - $267.06B
3. Apple (AAPL) - $219.83B
4. Wal-Mart (WMT) - $205.69B
5. Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) - $199.34B
Selected companies' current market values:
• Google (GOOG) - $186.58B
• IBM (IBM) - $167.61B
• Cisco (CSCO) - $151.39B
• Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) - $126.12B
• Intel (INTC) - $125.78B
• Disney (DIS) - $69.51B
• Amazon (AMZN) - $62.31B
• Nokia (NOK) - $56.07B
• Research In Motion (RIMM) - $40.44B
• Sony (SNE) - $36.73B
• Dell (DELL) - $30.78B
• Yahoo! (YHOO) - $25.46B
• Adobe (ADBE) - $18.21B
• Motorola (MOT) - $17.14B
• Beleaguered Palm (PALM) - $870.78M
• RealNetworks (RNWK) - $604.07M