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It's solid gold, so there goes the 1-2k price range.

"Solid Gold" is not a real term that makes a lot of sense in your regards.

Solid Gold itself (24 karrot) is very soft and pliable material. Nobody uses "solid gold" because of the weight and pliability, especially in jewellery or watches

I've seen the 18k gold number used, so what that means is that of your Gold, lets say 2oz of Gold, that means that it is 18/24ths pure gold, or only 75% gold, or roughly 1.5oz of actual gold.

but thats also neither here nor there. if the estimated total weight of the entire watch body is 2oz (Pebble steel, Moto360 and samsung gear range from 1.9 to 2.3oz), that is total body weight including the mechanics, non gold portions and internals. In all likelihod, there is probably well under 1 oz of gold per watch. I'm willing to bet there's probably not more than $500 worth of gold actually used.
 
The problem with pricing the gold watches that high is that this is still a gadget. Next year the $350 watch will have better specs and in my eyes be "better". They will need to
Have a trade-in program or upgrade program of some kind for this to fly.

Bingo. Electronic gadgets aren't like mechanical $20,000 Swiss watches. They break down, they become too slow/old and their styles aren't timeless.

Sorry but even if it's 100% gold (you'd assume no more than 18 carat for a watch... yeah?) so what? That much gold isn't worth $20,000... you could melt it down for maybe a grand if you're lucky.

I really can't liken a common ARM-based computer with today's touchscreen to a freakishly well engineered watch with timeless style and mechanics.
 
Gruber is merely stating an opinion based on arguably sound analysis. He has a pretty good track record.

So Apple's going to sell one watch for $350 and another for $20K? I'm sorry but he's off his rocker. Using the traditional watch industry as a basis for pricing makes no sense to me. The mark-up on Apple products is no where near equivalent to luxury watches.
 
Even if the device could be upgradable by switching out the internals, it still won't work. As technology improves in smaller form factors, the entire device will need to change.. I mean the screen, shape, the form factor itself.. It's not as simple as just putting in a new chip and you have a whole new device. Imagine taking everything that is the iPhone 6 and putting it in the original iPhone. That is not technology moving forward, and who knows if that would even be possible (would it?). If the smart watch is ever going to really succeed, it's going to require the ability to project upwards out of the device to make the screen larger.. Essentially a floating image. You think that's going to be able to happen by just switching out the chip? Of course not, it would require a completely new device with breakthrough tech. No chance this thing is upgradeable.
 
I'd just spray paint my metal watch to look gold. Da hell w/ $20K for a smartwatch.

I'm guessing if its 20K, then you receive the next three year models, for FREE?
 
...And HOW MUCH does an original, working, Apple 1 auction for? $666 ?? I think its a little higher than that.

I'd consider a 1st Gen Apple Watch Edition an investment and consider getting one just to leave it sealed in its original packaging.

You would be doing so for what reason? If you think you can compare an Apple 1 computer to an Apple Watch, you're missing out on the fact that there were only a few hundred Apple 1 computers HAND MADE BY WOZ AND JOBS. That sealed Apple Watch Edition you buy and hide away in the attic will be exactly like the other several hundred thousand or even million units sold in the next year, and consequently worth at most what you paid for it, likely less when Apple upgrades it.
 
I don't think Gruber's too far off. By pricing the Edition this way Apple has essentially avoided competing against smart-watches and begin to compete with traditional watchmakers.
 
I think it will be in the 4.000-5000$ price tag and will sell like a hot cake.

Nevermind, three months after release, there would be companies that would sell you the staniless steal version gold plated looking exactly as the original Edition version for a few hundred bugs. Actually, thats a good idea for a startup.
 
I'm sorry, I don't care what track record John Gruber has, his pricing estimates and retail expectations are way off. There's no way Apple won't sell the bands alone as accessories after they've emphasized how easy it is to swap them out. And, of course, his prices are way too high all around, especially for the Edition.
I expect we'll see diamond studded bands lined up at the top end. People paying $10k will want a completed watch.. They don't swap bands. They think this is a play for apple to be a Jewlery store now (why such a low margin business?)
 
The Apple Watch's case will only be about 2oz. 18K Gold costs about $900 an ounce. That's only $1800. So, I'd bet The Gold watch comes in at $2499 - $2999. Apple is still making a ~ $250 to $750 excess profit on the gold watch compared to the regular watches.

A 16GB iPhone 6 is estimated to cost Apple about $200 to manufacture, and they sell it for $650. That's a 225% markup for their cheapest model smartphone, a mainstream consumer electronics product.

Assuming your estimate of the gold value is correct at $1800, which excludes any engineering, manufacturing, and marketing costs, what makes you think they will go to all that trouble and expense to sell a premium, luxury product at a 39-67% markup?
 
"Solid Gold" is not a real term that makes a lot of sense in your regards.

Solid Gold itself (24 karrot) is very soft and pliable material. Nobody uses "solid gold" because of the weight and pliability, especially in jewellery or watches

You seem to be confusing solid gold with pure gold. "Solid" means that all of the material in the case is gold, whether it is 24K, 18K or 14K gold. The Karat value describes the purity of the gold.
 
None of the watches you mentioned have smartwatch functionalily. If all you're after in a wrist investment that tells the time then I'm not sure what your issue is. Just buy one of those other watches. If on the other hand you want a smartwatch that's all a piece of jewellery; a fashion item then you know what to do.

One is a hand crafted work of art and precision mechanical engineering. The other came out of a Chinese sweat shop. Granted the Apple Watch features some cool tech and good tech is art too (in my book anyway). The mechanical watch will last for generations. The Apple Watch will be obsolete in a few years. Gold or not. If Apple wants people to buy in at the crazy high fashion price, they are going to have to offer an upgrade/swap/buyback program.

I personally don't think the Edition will sell all that well beyond a few obnixious celebrities.
 
20K...

Entry-level Jaquet Droz or "high end" Apple Watch? Such a difficult choice... NOT
 
...And HOW MUCH does an original, working, Apple 1 auction for? $666 ?? I think its a little higher than that.

I'd consider a 1st Gen Apple Watch Edition an investment and consider getting one just to leave it sealed in its original packaging.

The ROI on an Apple I (assuming you were lucky enough that it still worked) has been OK, but hardly spectacular.

You might be better off investing your money elsewhere. eg if you invested $666 in Apple stock instead you would have been better off. Or there are other investments that are worth the time to investigate.
 
Ummm, not quite. Your Rolex will require servicing every few years which will cost upwards of $500 each time.
I wear a Rolex Submariner 16610 circa 1988 with a 3135 COSC movement, 904L stainless steel & sapphire crystal. This watch has been on my wrist for over 25 years, through 2 wars and countless dives and looks brand new. It's been serviced 2 times in 25 years at $349 a pop and is still very accurate (4 seconds a day). The watch is also worth more now than when I originally purchased it..
 
I don't think Apple is going for the ultra-luxury crowd. That's a very limited market. How many of those solid gold Rolexes does Rolex sell each year? A few thousand? Just by ordering 17% of the 6 million watches as the gold model, that tells us that Apple wants to at least initially sell over 1 million of the Edition watches, just in the first wave of sales. That would not happen at a $20,000 price point, or even $10,000.

Just the fact that they want the gold edition to represent 17% of sales (only half of the 33% that they want to be the steel portion), with the other models priced lower, means that the gold models are not going to be astronomically priced. They're probably thinking about double to triple the price of the steel model, which is probably going to place it between $1000 and $2000.

And this would place it just about right for what Apple wants- they want the gold models to be slightly aspirational, but not completely out of reach for some people if they really want it. Apple goes for the premium market, not ultra-luxury. Just like the iPhone does not compete with Vertu phones, the iPhone tries to be a phone that a very large percentage of the population would like to have. Different markets.
 
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Leatherman absolutely must release an :apple:Watch version of this band

TreadSSFront.jpg


which will run $150-200, and is already being promoted with a normal watch or two.
 
Bands will be a key element to Applle making money on the AppleWatch. People will want stylish and different bands regardless of which model of watch you buy
Selection will increase as time goes on
 
I call bull on this one, 20k is way way way way way way way way way too optimistic, that's Patek Philippe territory, forget your Omegas and Rolex! And they don't lose out on features every year.

I really like the Apple Watch, may even get the base one if I get an iPhone but I'll look utterly dumb founded at anyone with a 20k model that is the exact same apart from its case and strap!
 
I don't think Gruber's too far off. By pricing the Edition this way Apple has essentially avoided competing against smart-watches and begin to compete with traditional watchmakers.

Gruber is so far off and he's being played by his Apple connections. There is no way Apple is going to compete with traditional watchmakers, who sell fine timepieces that last decades. Apple may want you to look at them like they're something more than a tech accessory, but the Watch is just that.

Sure, it may be cool and maybe it will be something that will change how we look at wrist-worn devices, but it's not going to be with this first go-around and it certainly wouldn't happen if they were pricing the gold versions at $20k each. They want to move millions of units, including of the gold, so they're going to price them to move, at less than $2k each.
 
A Couple of Points/Misconceptions:

1. "Disposable"
So, I know people are used to the Pebbles and other "smartwatches" and their sealed nature.

This is actually not the norm with, for want of a better phrase, "real" digital/electronic watches, of which I own several. Note I did not say "smartwatch"

In these types of watches, it is ordinary and customary for the internals, anachronistically referred to as 'clockwork' (because, watches) to be removable and repairable. I've had to have one fixed in the past and the watch company sent the clockwork to me to have it replaced by a standard run-of-the-mill watch repair shop. They have the tools to do it and it isn't a new, rare or unique thing at all.

Apple, who are making a "watch", which they "believe/feel" is a Watch First, has no reason to not go the same route. It's a "watch" not a "smartwatch gadget" (to them). They may opt to do this themselves via Genius Bar appointments or authorized outlets, but it isn't far-fetched to believe the clockwork will be replaceable.


2. Apple
One of the things Apple has been doing for years is driving prices down for things with high build quality due to their own investments and the economy of scale. While many things Apple sells are "expensive" they are at the higher end of the machining/build quality scale for *things that are mass-produced*.

Apple, because of this scale, can and very likely will be selling this stuff at prices *higher* than 'junk run' prices, but far, far lower than equivalents in the industry they are entering due to this economy of scale and supply-chain mastery.

I expect the "fancy" bands and things to come in at about 60% of the (watch) industry pricing norms. *This* is what they meant when they said "Switzerland should be worried".

3. Gold
The Watch is made of, as stated, an 18K alloy, which would put the content at 75% of the spot price. Because of flux, they are likely going to price it where they have room to breathe should the needle go up, tho they wouldn't take a loss over what they pay at time of manufacture, so expect it to be priced at like 85%. That said, $2,500-ish seems to be in line with Materials, Manufacturing, Marketing and Mark-up. And "Value"...we know how they love to do the "No one has ever been able to offer this level of bla blah blah at this price before" thing.

4. The Goal
Apple's goal is to sell (literal) boatloads of these things. They only make one product that isn't made for mass-consumption by the Middle Class - The Mac Pro (which is a beast...by far the best Mac I've ever owned and I've owned them since the 80s).

As breathless as many of these pundits are about their projections, they all seemed to forget about the company they are dealing with. Apple didn't hire all these high-end people to *become* them...they hired them to help them figure out how do do what they do at a scale that Apple can to make the quality and luxury 'affordable' to the Middle Class consumer market they serve, which is full of people that while not millionaires, have money to spend.

I wouldn't worry about $10,000 Gold Watches coming from Apple. It isn't in their DNA. Their DNA is "what is the best watch we can make in the vein of $10,000 gold watch craftsmanship for less and still make money on it, while highlighting what we're good at?"

-K
 
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How is this newsworthy? Gruber doesn't know any more than the rest of us. You might as well throw up an article asking MacRumors to guess what prices will be.

It's not news, it's clickbait.
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News value is not a factor.
 
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