Sidebar Sidebar
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.

Analyst: 2011 Verizon iPhone Demand Could Reach 25 Million Units

MacRumors

MacRumors

macrumors bot
Original poster
Apr 12, 2001
69,443
40,541


With Verizon set to launch the iPhone in just a few weeks, analysts have been attempting to estimate just how many units Apple might be able to sell through the carrier during the first year, with many analysts projecting the number to be in the range of 10 million units and reports of Apple preparing for shipments of 25 million CDMA iPhone units worldwide suggesting that the estimates may at least be in the ballpark.


162339-verizon_iphone_purchasers.jpg


But according to All Things Digital, one analyst has gone out on a limb to note that Verizon might be able to sign up as many as 25 million iPhone customers over the first year, if Apple can make the units quickly enough. According to R.W. Baird analyst William Power, surveys of current wireless customers reveal that substantial numbers of both current feature phone and smartphone users say that they are "probably" or "definitely" going to purchase a Verizon iPhone soon after the device's launch.
From the survey:

- 29 percent of current Verizon feature phone owners said they will "probably" or "definitely" upgrade to the Verizon iPhone in the next three months. The carrier has roughly 64 million postpaid feature phone users, so that's 19 million potential iPhone upgrades, assuming eligibility.

- 25 percent of Verizon’s current smartphone users said they will "probably" or "definitely" switch to the iPhone. That's 4.8 million additional potential iPhone sales, again assuming eligibility.

Grand total: 23.8 million potential Verizon iPhone sales–from the carrier's installed base alone. Add to that the 5.6 percent of current AT&T iPhone users who told Baird they planned to switch to Verizon and that number rises to nearly 25 million.
Click to expand...
Surveys of future buying plans are of course subject to a fair degree of error when it comes to predicting actual results, as some customers will undoubtedly fail to follow through on their stated plans. Taking into account that factor, as well as constraints on Apple's production capacity and the eligibility of surveyed customers to upgrade at the best pricing, Power is maintaining an estimate of 10 million Verizon iPhone activations in the first year, but the survey result do indicate incredible awareness of and interest in Apple's smartphone offerings.

Article Link: Analyst: 2011 Verizon iPhone Demand Could Reach 25 Million Units
 
Article Link
https://www.macrumors.com/2011/01/27/analyst-2011-verizon-iphone-demand-could-reach-25-million-units/
do they really expect more than 1/4 of their user base to buy an iphone? that's kind of unreasonable. or do they really expect to expand by that many users? that's also unreasonable.
 
Bonsai1214 said:
do they really expect more than 1/4 of their user base to buy an iphone? that's kind of unreasonable.
Click to expand...

It's ridiculous.

And people are going to find that there are problems with Verizon too. Heck, I dumped them about 3 years ago due to dropped calls, terrible customer service, etc.
 
Bonsai1214 said:
do they really expect more than 1/4 of their user base to buy an iphone? that's kind of unreasonable. or do they really expect to expand by that many users? that's also unreasonable.
Click to expand...
It said 1/4 of their current smartphone user base. That isn't so far fetched.
 
Yawn

This may be because I'm from the UK but I'm really starting to find all this stuff about AT&T and verizon a little boring now. Can we have some real mac/apple news please?
 
I wasn't planning on switching. My wife found out this week about Verizon getting the Iphone, and now she wants us to switch. She doesn't get signal when she goes to her parents house in Ct, and verizon does. Also she doesn't get signal inside her office building.

I on the other hand have no issues (ie minimal issues). and enjoy the free new iphone every year (after subsidized purchase, & sale of old iphone). Were not going to have that on Verizon. Plus I don't want to risk having a new phone out in 5 months. I know I wont be happy. And then the whole no data and talk at the same time.

I think were just going to have to split and go our separate ways ... at least with our phone carriers. :)
 
25 million verizon iphones or 1/4 of verizons customers getting iphone,

does not seem unreasonable at all. millions will buy it at launch, then millions more will realize what Verizon has been missing and join the band wagon
 
That doesn't surprise me too much. The biggest barrier to iPhone market share growth is the fact that they are limited to one carrier that just doesn't work for a lot of people. It's good to see that barrier lifted. This will be good for Apple, good for consumers, and good for app developers like me. I can't wait to see the stats after the Verizon iPhone goes on sale.
 
Math is way off

This is best-case scenario, but he doesn't take into account that that 25% who are intending on buying an iPhone on their next upgrade, at most 50% of them will upgrade within the next year.

And estimating that all prepaid phone buyers are eligible to buy a contract-subsidized phone? That's off probably by an order of magnitude.

On the other hand, I will have two Verizon iPhone 5's on my Verizon account come September ...
 
Only 5.6% of AT&T iPhone customers intend to switch? Wow, that seems really low. There are 8 people I work with who have iPhones and every single one of them can't wait for the Verizon iPhone, not to mention their wives/hunsbands and girlfriends/boyfriends.
 
Can someone hurry up and post "competition is good". Looking forward to reading that little informative nugget again... ZZZZZZzzzzzzzz
 
jettredmont said:
This is best-case scenario, but he doesn't take into account that that 25% who are intending on buying an iPhone on their next upgrade, at most 50% of them will upgrade within the next year.

And estimating that all prepaid phone buyers are eligible to buy a contract-subsidized phone? That's off probably by an order of magnitude.

On the other hand, I will have two Verizon iPhone 5's on my Verizon account come September ...
Click to expand...

The article states that the survey was from postpaid users, and used the 64 million postpaid feature phone users in their calculations.

Of course this is just a survey so its accuracy depends on the sample size, that added to the fact that all the users that said they would probably won't switch. Most people with a feature phone probably don't know how much the data package will cost them since it wasn't really relevant when they bought their phone.

This also doesn't count anyone switching from other carriers or people buying their first postpaid phone.

I'd say 25 million could be accurate over the course of the next year, including the iPhone 5 on Verizon.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.
Top Bottom
Back