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Analyst: 2011 Verizon iPhone Demand Could Reach 25 Million Units

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With Verizon set to launch the iPhone in just a few weeks, analysts have been attempting to estimate just how many units Apple might be able to sell through the carrier during the first year, with many analysts projecting the number to be in the range of 10 million units and reports of Apple preparing for shipments of 25 million CDMA iPhone units worldwide suggesting that the estimates may at least be in the ballpark.




But according to All Things Digital, one analyst has gone out on a limb to note that Verizon might be able to sign up as many as 25 million iPhone customers over the first year, if Apple can make the units quickly enough. According to R.W. Baird analyst William Power, surveys of current wireless customers reveal that substantial numbers of both current feature phone and smartphone users say that they are "probably" or "definitely" going to purchase a Verizon iPhone soon after the device's launch.
From the survey:

- 29 percent of current Verizon feature phone owners said they will "probably" or "definitely" upgrade to the Verizon iPhone in the next three months. The carrier has roughly 64 million postpaid feature phone users, so that's 19 million potential iPhone upgrades, assuming eligibility.

- 25 percent of Verizon’s current smartphone users said they will "probably" or "definitely" switch to the iPhone. That's 4.8 million additional potential iPhone sales, again assuming eligibility.

Grand total: 23.8 million potential Verizon iPhone sales–from the carrier's installed base alone. Add to that the 5.6 percent of current AT&T iPhone users who told Baird they planned to switch to Verizon and that number rises to nearly 25 million.
Surveys of future buying plans are of course subject to a fair degree of error when it comes to predicting actual results, as some customers will undoubtedly fail to follow through on their stated plans. Taking into account that factor, as well as constraints on Apple's production capacity and the eligibility of surveyed customers to upgrade at the best pricing, Power is maintaining an estimate of 10 million Verizon iPhone activations in the first year, but the survey result do indicate incredible awareness of and interest in Apple's smartphone offerings.

Article Link: Analyst: 2011 Verizon iPhone Demand Could Reach 25 Million Units
 

Bonsai1214

macrumors 6502a
Jan 15, 2008
585
10
Penfield, NY
do they really expect more than 1/4 of their user base to buy an iphone? that's kind of unreasonable. or do they really expect to expand by that many users? that's also unreasonable.
 
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greytmom

macrumors 68040
Jun 23, 2010
3,463
664
do they really expect more than 1/4 of their user base to buy an iphone? that's kind of unreasonable.

It's ridiculous.

And people are going to find that there are problems with Verizon too. Heck, I dumped them about 3 years ago due to dropped calls, terrible customer service, etc.
 
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NT1440

macrumors G5
May 18, 2008
12,662
16,282
do they really expect more than 1/4 of their user base to buy an iphone? that's kind of unreasonable. or do they really expect to expand by that many users? that's also unreasonable.
It said 1/4 of their current smartphone user base. That isn't so far fetched.
 
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jon1987

macrumors regular
Jan 27, 2011
151
10
Yawn

This may be because I'm from the UK but I'm really starting to find all this stuff about AT&T and verizon a little boring now. Can we have some real mac/apple news please?
 
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Doc750

macrumors 6502a
Aug 11, 2010
803
4
I wasn't planning on switching. My wife found out this week about Verizon getting the Iphone, and now she wants us to switch. She doesn't get signal when she goes to her parents house in Ct, and verizon does. Also she doesn't get signal inside her office building.

I on the other hand have no issues (ie minimal issues). and enjoy the free new iphone every year (after subsidized purchase, & sale of old iphone). Were not going to have that on Verizon. Plus I don't want to risk having a new phone out in 5 months. I know I wont be happy. And then the whole no data and talk at the same time.

I think were just going to have to split and go our separate ways ... at least with our phone carriers. :)
 
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Mattsasa

macrumors 68020
Apr 12, 2010
2,333
735
Minnesota
25 million verizon iphones or 1/4 of verizons customers getting iphone,

does not seem unreasonable at all. millions will buy it at launch, then millions more will realize what Verizon has been missing and join the band wagon
 
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j-a-x

macrumors 68000
Apr 15, 2005
1,536
266
Houston, Texas
That doesn't surprise me too much. The biggest barrier to iPhone market share growth is the fact that they are limited to one carrier that just doesn't work for a lot of people. It's good to see that barrier lifted. This will be good for Apple, good for consumers, and good for app developers like me. I can't wait to see the stats after the Verizon iPhone goes on sale.
 
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jettredmont

macrumors 68030
Jul 25, 2002
2,727
328
Math is way off

This is best-case scenario, but he doesn't take into account that that 25% who are intending on buying an iPhone on their next upgrade, at most 50% of them will upgrade within the next year.

And estimating that all prepaid phone buyers are eligible to buy a contract-subsidized phone? That's off probably by an order of magnitude.

On the other hand, I will have two Verizon iPhone 5's on my Verizon account come September ...
 
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HiRez

macrumors 603
Jan 6, 2004
5,987
1,992
Western US
Only 5.6% of AT&T iPhone customers intend to switch? Wow, that seems really low. There are 8 people I work with who have iPhones and every single one of them can't wait for the Verizon iPhone, not to mention their wives/hunsbands and girlfriends/boyfriends.
 
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MarximusMG

macrumors 6502a
Jan 21, 2009
699
4
Denver
It said 1/4 of their current smartphone user base. That isn't so far fetched.

Exactly. People who are already using smartphones are much more likely to transition to the iPhone. I think that these numbers sound very reasonable.
 
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ten-oak-druid

macrumors 68000
Jan 11, 2010
1,980
0
Can someone hurry up and post "competition is good". Looking forward to reading that little informative nugget again... ZZZZZZzzzzzzzz
 
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jclardy

macrumors 68040
Oct 6, 2008
3,540
2,540
This is best-case scenario, but he doesn't take into account that that 25% who are intending on buying an iPhone on their next upgrade, at most 50% of them will upgrade within the next year.

And estimating that all prepaid phone buyers are eligible to buy a contract-subsidized phone? That's off probably by an order of magnitude.

On the other hand, I will have two Verizon iPhone 5's on my Verizon account come September ...

The article states that the survey was from postpaid users, and used the 64 million postpaid feature phone users in their calculations.

Of course this is just a survey so its accuracy depends on the sample size, that added to the fact that all the users that said they would probably won't switch. Most people with a feature phone probably don't know how much the data package will cost them since it wasn't really relevant when they bought their phone.

This also doesn't count anyone switching from other carriers or people buying their first postpaid phone.

I'd say 25 million could be accurate over the course of the next year, including the iPhone 5 on Verizon.
 
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