Analyst: 2011 Verizon iPhone Demand Could Reach 25 Million Units

[inkswamp]

It said 1/4 of their current smartphone user base. That isn't so far fetched.

Weren't there surveys from ChangeWave a few months back that showed a 1/3 of Android owners were planning to buy an iPhone next and 1/4 of Verizon customers strongly interested in a Verizon iPhone? That would support the claim that a 1/4 of their current smart phone users are going to the iPhone.

 

[bearcatrp]

So when is the iPhone coming to sprint? Had enough of android!

 

[ehoui]

Can someone hurry up and post "competition is good". Looking forward to reading that little informative nugget again... ZZZZZZzzzzzzzz

"If you don't like it, don't buy it."

 

[splashnader]

Who is sweating more here, Google or AT&T? Obviously two carriers is a win/win for Apple. AT&T seems pretty content with their prediction that no more than 3-6 % of iPhone users are going to jump ship within the first year. But just how Android users are going to jump ship may be more telling.

 

[BC2009]

This may be because I'm from the UK but I'm really starting to find all this stuff about AT&T and verizon a little boring now. Can we have some real mac/apple news please?

It's not because you are from the UK.

 

[NoExpectations]

25 million unlimited-data-plan iPhone users....hmmm....there goes that network.

 

[shartypants]

Cool. It will be interesting to see what AAPL does in February.

 

[LagunaSol]

This iPhone-on-Verizon thing is going to send the Fandroid Horde into a tizzy.

Wait until the iPhone is available on Sprint & T-Mobile too...

Time to head to Costco for a pallet of microwave popcorn. Things are about to get interesting.

 

[cameronjpu]

do they really expect more than 1/4 of their user base to buy an iphone? that's kind of unreasonable. or do they really expect to expand by that many users? that's also unreasonable.

Nope, but if you figure maybe 75% of the "definitely" crowd and 33% of the probably crowd, you still get a very high number.

By the way, the article seems to give two different timeframes for the sales - the survey was plans for the next 3 months, while the text all said over the next year.

 

[greytmom]

Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_2_1 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8C148 Safari/6533.18.5)

It's ridiculous.

And people are going to find that there are problems with Verizon too. Heck, I dumped them about 3 years ago due to dropped calls, terrible customer service, etc.

You mean ATT.

No, I don't. I mean Verizon. They aren't nearly as good as AT&T in this area. He'll, I was in Alaska this summer and had coverage almost everywhere. My Verizon traveling companions kept borrowing my phone.

 

[BC2009]

I'd say 25 million could be accurate over the course of the next year, including the iPhone 5 on Verizon.

they currently have 94 million total subscribers. 25 million would be larger than 1/4 of their current subscriber base.

25 million verizon iphones or 1/4 of verizons customers getting iphone,

does not seem unreasonable at all. millions will buy it at launch, then millions more will realize what Verizon has been missing and join the band wagon

Ehhhh. I dont like it when a ton of people have the same phone/things as me. 25 million's pushing it.

25 million unlimited-data-plan iPhone users....hmmm....there goes that network.

I know the article headline says "could reach 25 million" but if you read the article the prediction accounts for the fact that people surveyed on future purchasing decisions rarely follow through, hence the analyst predicts that if the percentages are representative of the entire population of Verizon users, then 23.8M Verizon users are saying they will switch, and hence, the analyst stands behind his prediction of 10M units in the first year (including the AT&T defectors).

If every one of those 25M people actually followed through and purchased the iPhone-4, it would be a miracle.

"If you don't like it, don't buy it."

I believe that ten-oak-druid was not saying he did not like the iPhone on Verizon, only that he was tired of people repeatedly saying "Competition is good". We all know that competition is good already, and if we did not, we've been told about a thousand times since the Verizon announcement. The only folks who don't think Verizon iPhone means competition are those who replied to the thread on the leaked Verizon pricing where everyone whines and complains that Verizon and AT&T are price fixing and if they were really competing then Verizon should have had unlimited texts and tethering and data for $20 per month or less. It costs money to color that big map of the USA red, Verizon is not going to give anything away -- they want iPhone to make money, not to simply degrade their network speeds.

 

[ehoui]

I believe that ten-oak-druid was not saying he did not like the iPhone on Verizon, only that he was tired of people repeatedly saying "Competition is good". We all know that competition is good already, and if we did not, we've been told about a thousand times since the Verizon announcement.

One truism deserves another. I agree with the sentiment of TOD's post.

 

[nylonsteel]

well good for you vz - now with the profits you will make - hurry up and build out fios into my area - been waiting over 3 years

 

[Richard1028]

Great news.

I hope all 25 million are AT&T ship-jumpers.

I can already feel my bandwidth throttling wide open once you resource-sucking lemmings get off my network.

 

[iEdd]

Wait until the iPhone is available on Sprint & T-Mobile too...

I can see it now (even if the phone is the same hardware):
Rumours of T-Mobile iPhone
More Rumours
More Rumours
T-Mobile Event Tuesday
T-Mobile Event Summary
T-Mobile CEO on T-Mobile Event
Breaking news: iTunes looks like it supports new T-Mobile iPhone
Analyst: T-Mobile customers to buy new T-Mobile iPhone
First Hands on Report: T-Mobile iPhone
New iTunes released: New iPhone is supported. Surprises all around.
T-Mobile iPhone has no antenna problems?
Testing of T-Mobile antenna by <other news site>
White T-Mobile iPhone "coming soon"
Mac Mini to get speed bump

Then it repeats for Sprint, and whatever other carriers are in the US.

 

[Thunderhawks]

Yay!

Finally a Verizon post.

 

[notabadname]

I guess I should buy more Apple stock. Oh, wait, I can afford it any more. Whatever the number, it will be a lot of iPhones moved this year. I know a good number of Verizon customers that have been waiting for it to come. Perhaps even one for every four I know.

 

[Glideslope]

The overwhelming bulk will go to China.

Uh, you mean 'Stay in China'?

 

[Block]

I hope all 25 million are AT&T ship-jumpers.

I can already feel my bandwidth throttling wide open once you resource-sucking lemmings get off my network.

Unfortunately, the ones with Unlimited Data who are doubling their data plan as their home internet with MyWi wouldn't likely be the ones switching to Verizon.

 

[JRoDDz]

And it's going to be 25 million pissed off people when AT&T gets the iPhone 5 in the summer.

 

[macmedal]

I can see it now (even if the phone is the same hardware):
Rumours of T-Mobile iPhone
More Rumours
More Rumours
T-Mobile Event Tuesday
T-Mobile Event Summary
T-Mobile CEO on T-Mobile Event
Breaking news: iTunes looks like it supports new T-Mobile iPhone
Analyst: T-Mobile customers to buy new T-Mobile iPhone
First Hands on Report: T-Mobile iPhone
New iTunes released: New iPhone is supported. Surprises all around.
T-Mobile iPhone has no antenna problems?
Testing of T-Mobile antenna by <other news site>
White T-Mobile iPhone "coming soon"

I keep forgetting that this is MacRumors I thought it had turned into VerizonRumors there has been that much boring conjecture and free advertising for a single carrier, anyone would think that Verizon sponsored this site.

 

[twoodcc]

i don't think apple can make 25 million in less than 10 months anyway. but it seems they will sell a ton

 

[Glideslope]

This iPhone-on-Verizon thing is going to send the Fandroid Horde into a tizzy.

Wait until the iPhone is available on Sprint & T-Mobile too...

Time to head to Costco for a pallet of microwave popcorn. Things are about to get interesting.

The anxiety is already palatable. You'll need two pallets, and a nice video device with at least 10X optical zoom.

While I am a dedicated at&t person, I must admitt I am looking forward to the first ViPhone to come into the office. I have a good number on the Android users at the office.

I will see how many there are in 8 weeks. This could be as large as 25 million from the way colleagues always wanted to use my 3GS and now my 4. Especially now that there is robust at&t service in our area as of last June.

Most of their issues have been needing to stay with Verizon due to multiple lines with the children. The Family and Friends Verizon option is a biggie with the children's social networking. MTM seems more attractive than Roll Over Minutes IMO.

 

[MacVixen]

The most surprising things to me about these projected numbers is that Verizon is not offering any incentive to their current customers to switch right? Only those that are already eligible for an upgrade will be able to preorder next week was my understanding. That seems to leave an awful lot of Verizon customers in the cold. By the time they become eligible they may not see iPhone as such a *must have* any longer.

I don't know... 25 Million seems high, even if stretched over a year. I have no opinion on Android one way or another, but are there really THAT many Android users that would switch to iPhone as soon as it becomes available? If true, as another poster said, I think if I were Google, I'd be getting a little nervous.

 

[0815]

do they really expect more than 1/4 of their user base to buy an iphone? that's kind of unreasonable. or do they really expect to expand by that many users? that's also unreasonable.

Does anybody recall the numbers how many percent of the smartphone users on AT&T are using the iPhone ?