Analyst Suggests 'Tablet Cannibalization' Responsible for Shrinking U.S. Notebook Retail Sales

[mdelvecchio]

Isn't it amazing what some glass, aluminum, an apple logo, and good advertisements can do for the most useless and niche product ever? The iphone is best at its job, the macbook is best at its job, but the ipad is best at nothing.

incorrect. repeat after me: "not everybody does what i do. not everybody feels as i do." see millions of ipad users.

as a professional .NET developer, let me say what a tablet does for me:

1) best battery life
2) best form factor for couch/toilet
3) best form factor for passing around
4) no airport security
5) no flimsy construction

...so far, ipad is the only product that does this. what is your 10-hour batter alternative that is suited to using while laying sideways and not having to remove from my bag at the airport?

 

[diabolic]

show of hands -- how many folks have a laptop and a tablet?

I do, and the laptop has hardly been used in months. I can't see myself buying another laptop anytime soon.

 

[dnaida]

tablets are not replacing laptops , just because you need a computer to sync it with iPad!
its because u still cant download stuff from safari in your ipad, u need download it to your computer first , and then sync it with iPad.
how a mac user , i d say , its the best owning an iPad and a Macbook/iMac

 

[mdelvecchio]

Like I have said, the iphone does all of that but in a quicker and easier way than the ipad because you can actually type quickly on the keyboard, and it costs way too much.

wow...$500 is "too expensive" for an ultra portable computer w/ a 10-hour battery life that i can control my media center with or watch tv in bed w/o disturbing my partner. dunno dude....guess you havent been around too long, but this is a bargain. sure beats spending a couple grand, which is what my past computers have all cost me.

and netbooks? please. puny, crummy displays that break in a year. trying to use a pointer on them it cumbersome and the whole thing pointless.

 

[benpatient]

You should see the same chart for the iTunes Music Store.

I know that our labels, which had been experiencing 20-30% growth year-over-year for the last few years are looking at a 2% increase for 2010. At the same time, physical sales continue to fall, and digital sales aren't making up for it anymore.

Market saturation.

Same thing happened with the iphone.

Same thing happening now with netbooks.

5-7 years ago, most people didn't have a laptop as their personal computer because there were too many trade-offs.

Now any laptop is reasonably capable of doing everything someone wants to do, so there we go.

the ipad isn't cannibalizing anything except maybe with the people who were buying laptops who didn't really even need one, just some way to get online.

 

[7o7munoz7o7]

That's funny. I just recently bought a netbook so I can do homework that's IE only.

lol sucks for you... IE just sounds like something old and outdated that wont work lol. enjoy

 

[benpatient]

incorrect. repeat after me: "not everybody does what i do. not everybody feels as i do." see millions of ipad users.

as a professional .NET developer, let me say what a tablet does for me:

1) best battery life
2) best form factor for couch/toilet
3) best form factor for passing around
4) no airport security
5) no flimsy construction

...so far, ipad is the only product that does this. what is your 10-hour batter alternative that is suited to using while laying sideways and not having to remove from my bag at the airport?

you lay sideways on the toilet?

how does that work, exactly?

 

[7o7munoz7o7]

Isn't it amazing what some glass, aluminum, an apple logo, and good advertisements can do for the most useless and niche product ever? The iphone is best at its job, the macbook is best at its job, but the ipad is best at nothing.

LOL wow....iPad is best at nothing? Come on guy....your crazy..what tablet out there is better at what it does....look at the numbers it has sold...look at all the apps for it...the apps are amazing. of course its not a replacement to laptop, but its an amazing device that performs very well...and once that iOS 4.1 comes out and adds more functionality to the iPad it will be even better. But im sure you wont agree.

 

[alhedges]

If you are not a programmer, I am not sure why you need a notebook. Almost for the same price (not comparing to macbooks) when you can get an iPad and do everything that you do in your daily life, why would you need one?

Do you actually know anyone who is not a programmer? Notebooks are good if you have to do a lot of typing, or if you need to use Excel, Word, or other Office programs. They are also good if you need to run a specific program that you need for work. In other words, notebooks are useful for most people who work in offices.

None of this means that people won't find an iPad useful, too, of course.

 

[alexkhan2000]

iPad works for me.

I use an iMac at work, use a MBP for business travel (to both Asia and Europe from the States), and another iMac at home. I only use the MBP on the road for email and web surfing. Yeah, it's good to have the Office programs available in the MPB but I really don't need them on the road or can use Google Docs. I've spent a good amount of time with a colleague's iPad and at an Apple Store and I'm convinced the iPad will be just fine for me on the road for my needs.

During business travel, the iPad will be much handier waiting at the airports or in the plane with its much longer battery life. There's no need for me to crunch numbers on a spreadsheet during such times. I'd rather surf the web, catch up on emails and watch a movie or something like that and not worry about the battery running out during a 10-hour flight or being stuck at an airport.

I don't have an iPad yet but definitely plan to get the next version, whenever that comes out. I could probably lug around both the MPB and the iPad but I'm quite sure that the iPad alone will be just fine. Again, it all depends on one's needs. Some people will find the iPad limiting but for others, like me, it'd be really all I need.

Also, the iPad would be great for vacations and weekend getaways when one doesn't want to carry around a laptop. The last thing I want to do during such times is do anything really work-related and the laptop just reminds me of work. The iPad wouldn't replace the laptop for guys who need a full-featured computer on the road, but for many (like myself), it really would be the only thing one needs.

 

[iEvolution]

I will never fall into a computer where the program options are ultimately dictated by one company.

Furthermore, I won't pay that much money for a device that ultimately depends on one program to do anything with.

Giant iPod Touch, whoopty-freakin-dooo!

..and LOL @ battery life as some sort of justification, there are netbooks out there that get 14 hours. There is a few problems with the netbook market right now, they are underpowered [dual core is coming out or has already came out now], they come with a crappy operating system [Win7 Starter, a half-functioning operating system], and the pricing for them makes it hard to justify over purchasing of a laptop with 3x the power for about $100 more.

 

[mdelvecchio]

But the iphone does all of that in a package that doesn't require a man-purse

hmm, surfing the web on the sofa with my 3" *phone*....by george you may onto something! why use a big screen i can read easily or flip thru photos on w/o putting it 2" from my nose? oh, because i like to watch movies on it in bed. yeah.

i should also get a touchscreen the size of a freakin' Table to pair w/ my phone, when i have friends over. best of both worlds, right?

 

[mdelvecchio]

you still need a computer for an ipad

yeah but thats not what he said. we're talking about notebooks (netbooks) vs ipads. the desktop computer sits on the desk for the few times i need photoshop...

 

[mdelvecchio]

I will never fall into a computer where the program options are ultimately dictated by one company.

...so youre telling me youre running linux apps on your windows machine? windows apps on your linux? mac apps on either? no? but...you said...?

Giant iPod Touch, whoopty-freakin-dooo!

...the difference between a bathtub and a swimming pool.

..and LOL @ battery life as some sort of justification, there are netbooks out there that get 14 hours. There is a few problems with the netbook market

...yeah, like using it sideways while laying on the sofa, or passing around one-handed to friends while sipping a drink, and removing it from my bag at security, and flimsy construction. lemme know when they fix all that, mkthx

 

[iEvolution]

...so youre telling me youre running linux apps on your windows machine? windows apps on your linux? mac apps on either? no? but...you said...?

You didn't understand it, Apple ruthlessly dictates what programs are approved for the app store. Microsoft doesn't dictate what programs can be programmed on their operating system and nor does the open source community on *nix operating systems.

...the difference between a bathtub and a swimming pool.

screen size.

...yeah, like using it sideways while laying on the sofa, or passing around one-handed to friends while sipping a drink, and removing it from my bag at security, and flimsy construction. lemme know when they fix all that, mkthx

This is your justification for paying $629 for a 16GB Wifi/3G computer? I guess if spending that much for those "essential" features is your thing then go for it. Flipsy? I don't know what laptops/netbooks you've used but that is a non-issue.

Pass one handed? What you can't pass a whole 2-5lbs with one hand with a netbook or laptop? If not you better hit the gym.

You sure seem to be having a hard time justifying that $629 16GB computer there bub. For the same price I could get a 13.3" laptop with 4GB DDR3 RAM, DUAL CORE, 500GB of space, Wifi, Bluetooth, Webcam...no one in the sane mind would pick a iPad over that laptop for anything other than image/ego. There is just no functional benefit to the iPad over a laptop.

 

[torbjoern]

One thing I really dislike about the iOS is that I cannot download an arbitrary file (e.g. a PDF file) and send it as an attachment. Nor can I send it to iDisk for sharing from the device. If the downloading requires authentication, just e-mailing the original hyperlink won't do, either.

For a mobile phone, this issue should certainly not be a dealbreaker (although my 5-year-old Nokia N70 allowed this). But for a tablet computer, it is. Just my two cents.

 

[macdaddykane]

Not to mention netbooks....

kinda suck and people are figuring out that they are just an even crappier laptop. I've never suffered from "netbook envy" as I've seen someone using one in public. The iPad on the other hand "Whoa Jenny!!"

 

[diabolic]

You sure seem to be having a hard time justifying that $629 16GB computer there bub. For the same price I could get a 13.3" laptop with 4GB DDR3 RAM, DUAL CORE, 500GB of space, Wifi, Bluetooth, Webcam...no one in the sane mind would pick a iPad over that laptop for anything other than image/ego. There is just no functional benefit to the iPad over a laptop.

In our house, there was no need for any justifying getting the iPad. We've got several computers ranging from the kids' iMac, our Laptops (PCs and a MacBook), and our work computers (Mac Pros and several PCs that I have built). Frankly I have been surprised at how completely the iPad has taken over for the laptops, even for traveling. For us, it's been better than I ever expected and gets far more use than any of the other computers in the house. I'd never use one as our only computer, but I'd also personally never use a laptop as the only one either.

 

[res1233]

Am I the only one who gets annoyed when I see people putting their quotes at the very bottom of a long post? I mean, why should I have to scroll to the bottom of you wall o' text to read what you're posting about, then have to scroll back up to read your post? On an iPhone this gets rather tiring.

 

[robotmonkey]

not that a macbook or MBP isn't price competative when compared against PC notebooks, but for most people they think you're on drugs if you spend that much on a laptop these days. no one is going to buy a 15" laptop for $2000.

as for the imac vs PC desktop i'm still split. but i'm leaning more to a PC with better graphics rather than an iMac with a nice monitor

If you are a heavy gamer go with a nice PC (that is still ecpensive, like alien ware computers). Refurb computers are cheaper, and really you can't compare the price of a PC to the price of a mac.

 

[Master Chief]

Statement: Reports of notebook, netbook sales declines grossly exaggerated

Close on the heels of claims from Best Buy CEO Brian Dunn regarding the iPad cannibalizing sales of notebooks at the electronics retail chain by "as much as 50%"...

Nope. Not true, and I quote:

"The reports of the demise of these devices are grossly exaggerated," Dunn said. "While they were fueled in part by a comment in the Wall Street Journal that was attributed to me, they are not an accurate depiction of what we're currently seeing. In fact, we see some shifts in consumption patterns, with tablet sales being an incremental opportunity. And as we said during our recent earnings call, we believe computers will remain a very popular gift this holiday because of the very distinct and desirable benefits they offer consumers. That's why we intend to carry a broad selection of computing products and accessories to address the demand we anticipate this season."

Source: http://www.bby.com/2010/09/17/state...netbook-sales-declines-grossly-exaggerated-2/

 

[robotmonkey]

incorrect. repeat after me: "not everybody does what i do. not everybody feels as i do." see millions of ipad users.

as a professional .NET developer, let me say what a tablet does for me:

1) best battery life
2) best form factor for couch/toilet
3) best form factor for passing around
4) no airport security
5) no flimsy construction

...so far, ipad is the only product that does this. what is your 10-hour batter alternative that is suited to using while laying sideways and not having to remove from my bag at the airport?

You do realize that I am not trying to dictate how other people should run their lives, right? Just giving my opinion.

1) best battery life. Actually, the iPhone 4 has a significantly better battery.
2) Best form factor for couch/toilet. I don't see that at all. It is hard to hold for long periods of time, the screen is too big to easily manipulate with one hand, and the keyboard is an awkward size in both landscape and portrait mode. The iPhone, however, fits a hand like a glove, is easy to type with in both layouts, and the screen is small enough to always be able to touch all of it without making awkward hand positions.
3) Best form factor for passing around. Once again, when compared to the iphone the ipad's size and weight is unwieldy.
4) no airport security. It's only a matter of time until they are treated just like computers, but iphone's aren't and will not be subject to that.
5) No flimsy construction. Because of its dimensions, materials, and weight, the iphone 4 will always be more sturdy than the ipad.

What I am trying to say is that the iphone is better suited for light/mobile computer than the ipad, and it is because of the inherent design of each. Oh, and with an ipad you have to carry another device to act as a phone. And the retina display makes the ipad display look blurry.

 

[robotmonkey]

wow...$500 is "too expensive" for an ultra portable computer w/ a 10-hour battery life that i can control my media center with or watch tv in bed w/o disturbing my partner. dunno dude....guess you havent been around too long, but this is a bargain. sure beats spending a couple grand, which is what my past computers have all cost me.

and netbooks? please. puny, crummy displays that break in a year. trying to use a pointer on them it cumbersome and the whole thing pointless.

So you are going to pay 500 dollars for an unwieldy, bloated version of the iphone, pay a monthly fee for 3g for that device, another 100-200 for a phone, and a 3g subscription for the phone. Right.

You will always need a phone. You will always need a computer. That is why the iphone is the device best suited for mobility/light computing and the mac is the best device suited as a computer. The ipad, however, can never be a standalone device like the iphone and the mac and you will always need another device that fulfills the "in between" function the ipad serves in a better way.

Why does everybody automatically think that I am suggesting netbooks and other tablets are better than the ipad? When you want a mobile/light experience, the iphone shines, and the ipad can never replace some of the functions of a computer that users like myself need.

So yes, for a device that will never be the best at something and considering I already have great devices for both light and power computing (iphone and macbook), $500 is MORE than ridiculously expensive.

 

[robotmonkey]

LOL wow....iPad is best at nothing? Come on guy....your crazy..what tablet out there is better at what it does....look at the numbers it has sold...look at all the apps for it...the apps are amazing. of course its not a replacement to laptop, but its an amazing device that performs very well...and once that iOS 4.1 comes out and adds more functionality to the iPad it will be even better. But im sure you wont agree.

The best "tablet" out there is the iphone. The ipad is a bloated iphone that doesn't have phone capability or a camera or facetime capability. Thus, the iphone does what the ipad does in a more convenient form factor and then some. And as you pointed out, it can not replace the funcionality of a computer. The point? It is not the best at anything.

 

[robotmonkey]

hmm, surfing the web on the sofa with my 3" *phone*....by george you may onto something! why use a big screen i can read easily or flip thru photos on w/o putting it 2" from my nose? oh, because i like to watch movies on it in bed. yeah.

i should also get a touchscreen the size of a freakin' Table to pair w/ my phone, when i have friends over. best of both worlds, right?

Your eyes actually can't focus on the screen that close to your face, and you must be blind or something if you can't see the iphone display. I guess I have phenomenal vision or something because the retina display is better for anything. IDK, I guess when I am at home I use my television to watch movies, I guess nobody else uses TV's at their home, and if I do need to watch it on a mobile I much prefer the lightweight of the iphone instead of that behemoth the ipad, and when I am done it goes right back into my pocket.

So when your friends come over, to watch movies you use your ipad and hold it in front of them? HA right. And when you want to share photos, you can either hand them a huge device that takes up space when you are done or you can hand them one with a better quality display (the best possible actually).

It's not the best of both of both worlds, it is a crippled device that has the limitations of the iphone with the size of a netbook.