Nokia is leading, but hasn't "won" yet. No one has. Fact is, there are more dumb phones than smart phones out there still. Once the balance tips in favor of smart phones, whoever is leading the smartphone OS race will have won.That's not true at all. Just look around and you can see that isn't happening.
Nokia has by far the largest smartphone market-share. But it is not any dictating market standards. Symbian is open source. But other handset manufacturers will not use it.
Developers are abandoning Nokia's platforms and moving to the iPhone. Not because it has the iPhone largest number of customers. But because iPhone development is profitable. The iPhone has people who are willing and able to spend money on Apps.
Nokia sells an incredible number of phones that are classed as smart-phones. But their profit per phone is declining rapidly. I think it averages at $15 per phone. In comparison, Apple makes more than $200.
If the trend continues in 18months Nokia may well be in a loss-making position. Whereas Apple became the most profitable handset manufacturer last year.
And it is Apple (and profitability) that are sets the standards. With every manufacturer attempting to duplicate the success that Apple has achieved.
Your thesis is completely wrong. It is profits that provide stability and freedom to experiment. Market share without profitability is just embarrassing.
C.
What happened to Apple when Jobs first left? Apple stock? Profits? It sank. Without majority market share, it will happen again.