Let me see; was android even considered an "iPhone Killer" or a wannabe? This makes me laugh....
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Android to Surpass iPhone in Market Share by 2012?
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If the day comes when an Android phone is as good as an iPhone, then it will be the service provider that will be the tipping point. AT&T better get their act together!
Over here, they brand the Samsung and HTC phones as Google powered with the Google logo, and don't mention Android.
Google has a comprehensive suite of services that no-one else can match as yet and I don't see Apple starting a 10 year effort to build up a similar suite of services or collection of information.
Apple IMO needs to maintain a good relationship with Google.
Bing/Microsoft Live and Yahoo are still not up to the standard of Google's services. MobileMe and iWork.com cover such a tiny fraction of Googles services and are still very incomplete for the areas they do cover.
Donut has just been released this month.
Next year will see the release of Eclair and Flan. There will also be many Android handsets that use the Snapdragon processor, which has more than enough speed to handle Android with the same fluidity as the 3GS.
The Snapdragon processor is an ARM design similar to the Cortex A9 (two-issue out-of-order) and starts at 1GHz, but uses less power as it includes the baseband processor. There are already handsets shipping using it, not Android ones yet.
With three Android handset makers in stores now (Samsung, HTC, Huawei) and three more in stores before Christmas (LG, Acer and Motorola), Android is moving fast.
Competition is a good thing! Look how cool all these gadgets we all have in our pockets now, and think how neat they are going to be in just another 18 months!
Apple would be very sensible to add a $2 1700MHz power amplifier that works with T-Mobile USA, and end exclusivity in that market to promote competition.
No way in hell
Three questions:
Are Gartner talking about the US market or the World market?
Is this guess based on 40 different Android handsets?
What number of iPhone carriers did they model?
This is not only the kind of dumb prediction that so exercises Nassim Talib, it is utterly meaningless and almost certainly wrong.
If you look at the two platforms, it's clear one [Apple's iPhone] is on a clear path that's now 28 months old. The other [Google et al's Android] is barely out of diapers, with one model down and the latest not exactly pulling up any tree roots yet.
The old 'build it and they will come' maxim only works if what you're selling is what people want. And that's the great unknown. Actually it's an unknowable unknown. But we do have some clues.
Apple has a loyal following and a great reputation for selling reliable software and hardware in one package. And that, as anyone who's bought a Nokia from Orange UK recently will know, is a much better solution. Oh, and women won't buy anything called 'Android'.
I have no idea what shape the Android market will be in in two years time, but I predict two things: With 40 different models, each with a vast array of different functionality, from any number of manufacturers, they have a compatibility nightmare on their hands, and absolutely no chance of creating any kind of buzz. Indeed, Microsoft have a better chance with whatever vision of ugliness they eventually spew out!
So, my fellow Macrumors posters, how about a wager?
I predict the true situation by 2012 will not be as Gartner suggest. I believe Apple will have their iPhone available all over the World with multiple carriers in each region, and that Apple's iPhone App, not Android will be in the number one spot. Indeed, I question whether the experiment will grow much beyond a techie wet dream.
I also predict that the Kindle will end up remaindered by the end of 2012. The only thing that might upset this is if they pull a colour screen and better battery out of the bag, and beat Apple's iPad on features and price. I don't see Amazon making that level of R&D investment, or being capable of leveraging that kind of buying power - ever.
Three questions:
Are Gartner talking about the US market or the World market?
Is this guess based on 40 different Android handsets?
What number of iPhone carriers did they model?
This is not only the kind of dumb prediction that so exercises Nassim Talib, it is utterly meaningless and almost certainly wrong.
If you look at the two platforms, it's clear one [Apple's iPhone] is on a clear path that's now 28 months old. The other [Google et al's Android] is barely out of diapers, with one model down and the latest not exactly pulling up any tree roots yet.
The old 'build it and they will come' maxim only works if what you're selling is what people want. And that's the great unknown. Actually it's an unknowable unknown. But we do have some clues.
Apple has a loyal following and a great reputation for selling reliable software and hardware in one package. And that, as anyone who's bought a Nokia from Orange UK recently will know, is a much better solution. Oh, and women won't buy anything called 'Android'.
I have no idea what shape the Android market will be in in two years time, but I predict two things: With 40 different models, each with a vast array of different functionality, from any number of manufacturers, they have a compatibility nightmare on their hands, and absolutely no chance of creating any kind of buzz. Indeed, Microsoft have a better chance with whatever vision of ugliness they eventually spew out!
So, my fellow Macrumors posters, how about a wager?
I predict the true situation by 2012 will not be as Gartner suggest. I believe Apple will have their iPhone available all over the World with multiple carriers in each region, and that Apple's iPhone App, not Android will be in the number one spot. Indeed, I question whether the experiment will grow much beyond a techie wet dream.
I also predict that the Kindle will end up remaindered by the end of 2012. The only thing that might upset this is if they pull a colour screen and better battery out of the bag, and beat Apple's iPad on features and price. I don't see Amazon making that level of R&D investment, or being capable of leveraging that kind of buying power - ever.
No, sorry.
In three years time my new phone os will be number 1.
And Zunes will be the number 1 MP3 player
England will win the World Cup
Cars will run on water and out of the exhaust will pour a stream of pure molten gold. Fluffy white bunny rabbits will follow the cars collect the gold and post the driver back ingots to store in their garages.
Everyone will be paid a minimum wage of a million of pound.
Finally they will admit that Swine Flu was the biggest over reaction ever made by the WHO and the world's governments.
Wars will end and man will live in harmony for ever more
The end, and we all lived happily ever after.
oh yes the iphone is still the number one smart phone....
In three years time my new phone os will be number 1.
And Zunes will be the number 1 MP3 player
England will win the World Cup
Cars will run on water and out of the exhaust will pour a stream of pure molten gold. Fluffy white bunny rabbits will follow the cars collect the gold and post the driver back ingots to store in their garages.
Everyone will be paid a minimum wage of a million of pound.
Finally they will admit that Swine Flu was the biggest over reaction ever made by the WHO and the world's governments.
Wars will end and man will live in harmony for ever more
The end, and we all lived happily ever after.
oh yes the iphone is still the number one smart phone....
You guys are all forgetting. The world is going to end in 2012 so it wont matter.
Hopefully, after the Olympics.
As for the prediction of Android surpassing iPhone's market share -- maybe, maybe not. But if it's going to do that, it'll have to suddenly hit the 'wow' factor and also gain an international distribution, network, and support of some kind.
I hear GOOG and VZN are in bed now but that seems U.S.-centric. To have any prayer of surpassing the iPhone, GOOG is going to have to hook up with a lot of other providers in other nations.
I don't understand why some of you are having such a hard time believing this.
The iPhone is great, it's not going any where. It is however one device from one company, and it's never going to be low (or even mid) end [of the market].
Android has the world at it's feet, really. It has an apps store (with 15,000 apps so far), you're not locked in to using this apps store though, others can come along, or you can just copy an app to your phone and install it (no jailbreaking crap needed).
Windows Mobile is a dead horse, iPhone OS is closed, but people want smart phones. Android to the rescue.
Any manufacturer can take Android, they can design any handset with any features they like to sell in different markets and at different budgets. They don't have to invest a fortune in developing an OS themselves, or the infrastructure to support it. It's all done for them. If they want to they can have a few devs customising Android to some extent, but it's not a huge commitment. They can just as easily leave it alone and not have to do anything with it.
Really seems like many a manufacturers wet dream.
The iPhone is great, it's not going any where. It is however one device from one company, and it's never going to be low (or even mid) end [of the market].
Android has the world at it's feet, really. It has an apps store (with 15,000 apps so far), you're not locked in to using this apps store though, others can come along, or you can just copy an app to your phone and install it (no jailbreaking crap needed).
Windows Mobile is a dead horse, iPhone OS is closed, but people want smart phones. Android to the rescue.
Any manufacturer can take Android, they can design any handset with any features they like to sell in different markets and at different budgets. They don't have to invest a fortune in developing an OS themselves, or the infrastructure to support it. It's all done for them. If they want to they can have a few devs customising Android to some extent, but it's not a huge commitment. They can just as easily leave it alone and not have to do anything with it.
Really seems like many a manufacturers wet dream.
this will be interesting to see but it still will be quite some time before we see some quality hardware devices for Android. time will tell.
Not sure if this is linked yet but it's a good read:
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2009/10/08/gartner-declares-android-a-second-place-winner-in-2012-why/
I personally don't see Android coming anywhere near Apple or RIM because their focus is so splintered and erratic. You're going to end up with the same issue as before - different interfaces on different devices. The only upside will be the uniform system.
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2009/10/08/gartner-declares-android-a-second-place-winner-in-2012-why/
I personally don't see Android coming anywhere near Apple or RIM because their focus is so splintered and erratic. You're going to end up with the same issue as before - different interfaces on different devices. The only upside will be the uniform system.
I think you're giving people too much credit. I can tell someone about Android and they don't have a clue about the OS or who makes it.
iPhone OS is closed and you can buy apps only on the App Store. For other ways to work you need to jailbreak. Android has no such restriction, but you have no guarantee that app you are buying is not some trojan horse or it has 1000 other bad things.
So they're making predictions on the cell phone industry 3 years from now? Let see... 10 years ago I was using a Nokia 2100 on PrimeCo. 8 years ago I was using a Nokia 5100 on the then new Verizon. 6 years ago I was using a Nokia 8100 something on AT&T Wireless...err then Cingular...err was it BellSouth. Whatever. 4 years ago I was using a Motorola i something on Nextel. 2 years ago I was using an LG Chocolate on Verizon. Now I use an iPhone 3GS. And each phone I bought was sold to me by a company who said they had the best network, most innovate features blah blah blah.
So in 10 years I went from a Nokia 2100 BRICK to an iPhone that sometimes allows me to leave my work laptop in the office when I come home because it can do everything I'll need to do from home or traveling. Even 2 years ago, the best I could do on my LG Chocolate was listen to some music and use an attempt at GPS on a phone.
And these guys are predicting the industry 3 years from now when I'm not even sure what it'll look like 3 months from now? Please stop wasting your time and ours with articles like these.
So in 10 years I went from a Nokia 2100 BRICK to an iPhone that sometimes allows me to leave my work laptop in the office when I come home because it can do everything I'll need to do from home or traveling. Even 2 years ago, the best I could do on my LG Chocolate was listen to some music and use an attempt at GPS on a phone.
And these guys are predicting the industry 3 years from now when I'm not even sure what it'll look like 3 months from now? Please stop wasting your time and ours with articles like these.
That is exactly the weakness of the PC platform. It turns into a zoo where the monkeys and lions roam free and the people have to live in cages...
...but who has the market share?That is exactly the weakness of the PC platform. It turns into a zoo where the monkeys and lions roam free and the people have to live in cages...
In smart phones? I believe Nokia and RIM are the big ones - and they are both vendors that have a high degree of control over the software and hardware. On the desktop market it clearly is MS, but it's not really accurate to say that they got that way due to availability on every hardware system under the sun. Microsoft's successes are due to bulding up from prior successes. No surprise their biggest success was practically given to them by a bone headed decision by IBM.
RIM is one proof that you can get tons of market share even when you control the whole widget to a high degree. The second component is having enough SKU's to accommodate different needs. Of course it can become very unwieldy very quickly.
Google's biggest problem is avoiding the pitfalls that Microsoft fell into - trying to have a product that does everything in a market that tends to have difficulty in making choices. Either you get it right and maintain it with a focused plan, or you just release a new product every few months and see if it sticks somewhere.
We cannot say that Google will succeed with this strategy simply because we have a hard time predicting how it will happen - there are too many players vigorously competing. We don;t have an situation like the desktop market where an IBM mentality of thinking can just hand over the market to Google. Just because you attach "Google" and "Open" to something doesn't mean that it's going to succeed. And even if it does, succeed, it could be for a different reason altogether.
If I was a gambling person, I would say that ranking isn't going to be the factor to look at since all the contenders are going to be really close to each other - its not going to matter if "Google is in Second" because they will have to contend with a market where they can go to third in 6 months. In other workds - its who can do the best at leveraging one success into another - and in a market such as this - anybody can do that.
The only reason I could see this happening is if Apple doesn't roll out the iPhone to other carriers or if it does so late in 2011 or something.
I could also see Google making more unit sales but with lower revenue (i.e. more low-end units).
I think the point will be moot because of the gazillion different iterations of hardware manufacturers tacking on their individualized stuff.
I could also see Google making more unit sales but with lower revenue (i.e. more low-end units).
I think the point will be moot because of the gazillion different iterations of hardware manufacturers tacking on their individualized stuff.
Great developers are not inhibited by things like that. In fact, they often consider it a challenge. It's lazy developers that don't welcome the opportunity to embrace different technology and just too-quickly dismiss it.
So they're predicting Android will replace Symbian and Windows (how many years and Windows Mobile 6.5 is the best they can do). Hardly surprising. I thought we were all predicting this when Android was first announced. All the junk, throw away phones made by HTC et al. use Android because it is at least in the same ballpark as the new smart phones. Meanwhile all the people who don't let the sales people in the mobile stores dictate their phone choices get an iPhone, Blackberry, or maybe a Pre if Palm doesn't die.
Android may be better than Windows 6.5 but they still have a lot of work when it comes to user experience. Google honestly needs to make their own phone as a benchmark to shame all the other phone makers into making a good one.
Oh, and does this report include predicted numbers of the iPod Touch? It runs the same OS as the iPhone so it is relevant as far as developer ecosystem.
Android may be better than Windows 6.5 but they still have a lot of work when it comes to user experience. Google honestly needs to make their own phone as a benchmark to shame all the other phone makers into making a good one.
Oh, and does this report include predicted numbers of the iPod Touch? It runs the same OS as the iPhone so it is relevant as far as developer ecosystem.
Flash is what will bring the iPhone down.
I can see the ads:
iPhone: I have touch.
Android: Bleh, I have touch too.
iPhone: I am sleek and I have a 3.5" screen.
Android: Bleh, nowadays I am sleek too, and I have a 4" screen.
Android: Oh, and I can surf ALL of the web, including Flash sites and Hulu.
iPhone (nervously picking a pimple): Bleh, who needs Flash, I hate Flash!!! I hate Flash even more than I hated Copy/Paste. Just wait for HTML5, it'd be here in only 5 years....
Voiceover: Yes you can! But only with Android.
I can see the ads:
iPhone: I have touch.
Android: Bleh, I have touch too.
iPhone: I am sleek and I have a 3.5" screen.
Android: Bleh, nowadays I am sleek too, and I have a 4" screen.
Android: Oh, and I can surf ALL of the web, including Flash sites and Hulu.
iPhone (nervously picking a pimple): Bleh, who needs Flash, I hate Flash!!! I hate Flash even more than I hated Copy/Paste. Just wait for HTML5, it'd be here in only 5 years....
Voiceover: Yes you can! But only with Android.
Flash on a mobile device will be a horrid experience no matter how fast phones get.
I doubt it. I think that no matter what platform it is on, people are going to realize that it only really works well when you have a large enough screen. Flash may be able to scale up, but that doesn't mean the opposite is true.
Not to mention that a great deal of the things that Flash does now are being incorporated into HTML 5. Flash is heavily used due to incumbency and its prevalence on the desktop market. But what works on a computer doesn't always apply equally on phones.