I suspect people care more about being in the Apple ecosystem than price. If that weren’t the case there’d have already been a mass exodus to android.
We shall see. When you look at global market share figures there's an understandable trend that Android tends to do really well in regions with lower disposable income. Android already is the dominating mobile operating system in Europe with around 67% and if people get poorer I'd expect this to rise.
You're right that someone who is locked into the ecosystem with multiple devices, even if it's just AirPods and an iPhone, is less likely to switch, but other lock-ins that seem to exist in the US (primarily iMessage and FaceTime) are far less important here where people just use WhatsApp regardless. Plus, Apple's other devices are not cheap either and do need replacing occasionally, so someone who's already struggling might not pay an AirPods premium and just get cheaper generic headphones instead, making it easier to buy another phone going forward.
Again, I'm not expecting any immediate drastic movements other than people just deciding to keep whatever they have, but if the economic situation here continues with high inflation etc etc then I wouldn't be surprised if Apple became less competitive here because other companies do offer phones with stuff people care about for a lot less.