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They've invested billions into the FSD project.

400k FSD users. Assume 100k paid with ASP $8k = $800m

Assume other 300k FSD users are subscriptions. Assume avg revenue from each customer is is $150/mo. Assume 8 mo average before customer cancels = $360m

Assume 200k out of 400k needed HW3 computer swap @ $1500 a piece = -$300m

800 + 360 - 300 = $860m then subtract cost of Dojo project/engineers/HW4/HW5 chip design/NVIDIA datacenter/etc....

They're not going to break even if they are stuck in FSD beta forever.
The function could be 5X better and they could still call it beta. What would stop them?
 
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My reaction is...

1. You post is sorta weird as you hide Audi, BMW and Mercedes Benz between a bunch of far less reputable brands that compete in different markets. I'd hope that Apple could make something that performs better than Chinese junk. Or, simply not release it.
Polestar is Volvo so they not less reputable than the other major brands.
 
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One thing I wonder with Apple entering the car industry is how they will manage features. With iPhones, iPads and every other consumer electronic they produce, they have a strategy to drip feed features to spread the releases over multiple years. This happens even if competitors release products with these features years before Apple. With modern cars they are packed full of features and this is expected at launch to match the competition. The car industry as a lot more competitive than the phone and computer markets and consumers will aim to get the most for their money.
I would be more curious if Apple went the Tesla route for adding new features to existing cars or the Legacy manufacturer route of making you upgrade to get said new feature. Yes I understand that some are coming around to adding new features to existing vehicles, but it isn't consistent yet. Think of it in terms of CarPlay 2.0. Has there been anything shown thus far that indicates that it isn't compatible with existing CarPlay hardware with a simple gateway firmware update?
 
This was a major strategic failure. Apple should’ve just targeted ev with Apple interface and software and launched it in 2022 or so. How da hell will they be able to compete with Tesla and other auto companies with their version 1 in 2028?
They aren't going to compete because there won't be an Apple car 🙄
 
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Let's not (only) look at a potential Apple car from a 'selling cars' viewpoint, including
the industrial strategies to follow yes or no, but from a Personal Mobility (PM) angle.

Carmakers make PM solely about cars. There is soooo much more to PM.

In that sense, I have often made the comparison with Steve Jobs who basically said that
there is so much more to Personal Communication than calling each other.

Here are the four basic, momentous challenges that carmakers have left unaddressed, unsolved.

_EACtKpTLTh97_TstDZA8TxB_SiGG09U5Xz4rs0rRcMUCE-jQ4hmHZQ3GzozQ9c2iPxiWJQ0XlWVIlMWa84BbGBjwsA8DNigQManCwt4T2jstnMYAKurq6GjaoslmSt1OhI9Mr6sCYaxciPuyd9Ixr5qyA=s2048


- Electric cars won’t sell without billion $ subsidies
- More traffic; never enough roads; transit times go up
- Road safety went down
- Driverless hasn’t delivered on its promises

IMO, there's where the window opportunity lies for a newcomer like Apple.
Remember that it was one in the telecom market before 2007 too.

Loose the whole notion of bringing yet another EV, only Bang & Olufsen styled (like so many Apple stuff).
Personal Mobility needs a Reinvent of the Auto-Mobile... (also like the iPhone was of the cellphone).
 
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Let's not (only) look at a potential Apple car from a 'selling cars' viewpoint, but from a Personal Mobility (PM) angle.
Carmakers make PM solely about selling cars. There is soooo much more to PM.

In that sense, I have often made the comparison with Steve Jobs who basically said that there is so much
more to Personal Communication than selling mobile phones.

Here are the four basic, momentous challenges that carmakers have left unaddressed, unsolved.

_EACtKpTLTh97_TstDZA8TxB_SiGG09U5Xz4rs0rRcMUCE-jQ4hmHZQ3GzozQ9c2iPxiWJQ0XlWVIlMWa84BbGBjwsA8DNigQManCwt4T2jstnMYAKurq6GjaoslmSt1OhI9Mr6sCYaxciPuyd9Ixr5qyA=s2048


- Electric cars won’t sell without billion $ subsidies
- More traffic; never enough roads; transit times go up
- Road safety went down
- Driverless hasn’t delivered on its promises

IMO, there's where the window opportunity lies for a newcomer like Apple.
Remember that it was one in the telecom market before 2007 too.

Loose the whole notion of bringing yet another EV, only Bang & Olufsen styled (like so many Apple stuff).
Personal Mobility needs a Reinvent of the Auto-Mobile... (also like the iPhone was of the cellphone).
Nice post but Apple isn't making a car 🙄
 
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Tim Cook (have any of you ever read Apple's IP terms?) can't blame me for
speculating freely, without formally submitting.
My view already received recognition and acclaim in the media and at conferences.

Look, Apple was almost a complete newcomer to the telecom sector when it introduced
its iPhone. Something similar could, should take place in Personal Mobility.

What’s next in Auto-Mobility may be as simple as targeting the sweet spot
that carmakers so far have not been aiming for.
blueprint%20for%20an%20apple%20car%2009022024%20(1).jpg


Know of any other (concept) vehicle that ticks all five circles?
You only need to lure 1 in 900 car buyers to have a viable business.
What happens if a Next-Gen EV becomes as ubiquitous as a smartphone?
 
Tim Cook (have any of you ever read Apple's IP terms?) can't blame me for
speculating freely, without formally submitting.
My view already received recognition and acclaim in the media and at conferences.

Look, Apple was almost a complete newcomer to the telecom sector when it introduced
its iPhone. Something similar could, should take place in Personal Mobility.

What’s next in Auto-Mobility may be as simple as targeting the sweet spot
that carmakers so far have not been aiming for.
blueprint%20for%20an%20apple%20car%2009022024%20(1).jpg


Know of any other (concept) vehicle that ticks all five circles?
You only need to lure 1 in 900 car buyers to have a viable business.
What happens if a Next-Gen EV becomes as ubiquitous as a smartphone?
What does the image mean be affordable ev and more road safety?
 
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"mean by"?

"affordable ev": simple, there's a difference between selling an EV that costs a lot of money because it packs a big battery to give it a decent range (Americans still complain about EVs being too expensive)... and selling an affordable premium-looking EV which has a big profit margin because it can do with a smaller battery.

"more road safety": in case you haven't noticed, there are more road accidents and fatalities. Carmakers think they can address them by making cars bigger and equipping cars with all sorts of electronic safety features... To no avail.
 
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"mean by"?

"affordable ev": simple, there's a difference between selling an EV that costs a lot of money because it packs a big battery to give it a decent range (Americans still complain about EVs being too expensive)... and selling an affordable premium-looking EV which has a big profit margin because it can do with a smaller battery.

"more road safety": in case you haven't noticed, there are more road accidents and fatalities. Carmakers think they can address them by making cars bigger and equipping cars with all sorts of electronic safety features... To no avail.
Americans also won't buy city cars that Europeans buy. Most of the cost of the EV is the battery, so there is room for improvement for sure.

So how would they improve road safety?
 
Americans also won't buy city cars that Europeans buy. Most of the cost of the EV is the battery, so there is room for improvement for sure.

So how would they improve road safety?

For sure, 80 percent of new car sales in the US consist of SUVs, whereas in Europe it's about half.
The 'trick' is to lure 1 in 900 new car buyers, worldwide. Yes, you need a global brand to do this.
But it will be plenty to have a viable business. Rule of thumb is to be able to sell a minimum of
80,000 annually. Global new car sales are somewhere between 80 and 90 million each year.

My belief is that the "1 in 900" may well turn out to be at least "1 in 90"...!!

target%20group.jpg
 
Tim Cook (have any of you ever read Apple's IP terms?) can't blame me for
speculating freely, without formally submitting.
My view already received recognition and acclaim in the media and at conferences.

Look, Apple was almost a complete newcomer to the telecom sector when it introduced
its iPhone. Something similar could, should take place in Personal Mobility.

What’s next in Auto-Mobility may be as simple as targeting the sweet spot
that carmakers so far have not been aiming for.
blueprint%20for%20an%20apple%20car%2009022024%20(1).jpg


Know of any other (concept) vehicle that ticks all five circles?
You only need to lure 1 in 900 car buyers to have a viable business.
What happens if a Next-Gen EV becomes as ubiquitous as a smartphone?
Or, perhaps Apple’s goal is to license technology to automakers. No way for us outsiders to know.
 
Or, perhaps Apple’s goal is to license technology to automakers. No way for us outsiders to know.
You think Apple would try to take on MobilEye/Nvidia for ADAS systems? Not sure how lucrative the RTOS automotive market is. Would an Apple branded infotainment system come with it's own brand of speakers, eq settings, etcetera?
 
You think Apple would try to take on MobilEye/Nvidia for ADAS systems? Not sure how lucrative the RTOS automotive market is. Would an Apple branded infotainment system come with it's own brand of speakers, eq settings, etcetera?
I have no idea.
Apple does have the financial resources to start a car company, build factories, dealerships, the works. No question about that. I think an Apple car could be fantastic. I don’t know whether they will or not. I think Apple needs to do something — they bring in a billion dollars a day selling phones and computers, and they haven’t had a major new launch in a very long time, unless the glasses become the Next Big Thing.
 
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I have no idea.
Apple does have the financial resources to start a car company, build factories, dealerships, the works. No question about that. I think an Apple car could be fantastic. I don’t know whether they will or not. I think Apple needs to do something — they bring in a billion dollars a day selling phones and computers, and they haven’t had a major new launch in a very long time, unless the glasses become the Next Big Thing.
In any case it would be interesting to see if Apple goes the Tesla, or Waymo route for vehicle autonomy.
 
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It all depends. On having a vision that transcends, like the iPhone brought.
My angle has always been:
1. There is so much more to Personal Mobility than selling/driving cars.
(like there's more to Personal Communications than phoning each other)
2. Do 'we' really think that Apple is working on a let's say B&O styled car
with the latest in connectivity and convenience gizmos?
 
It all depends. On having a vision that transcends, like the iPhone brought.
My angle has always been:
1. There is so much more to Personal Mobility than selling/driving cars.
(like there's more to Personal Communications than phoning each other)
2. Do 'we' really think that Apple is working on a let's say B&O styled car
with the latest in connectivity and convenience gizmos?
Car rentals/ride sharing really works in cities. In rural areas, not so much, haha.

I'm not sure if making a car, especially one they sell to someone, really helps Apple. Going the Waymo route (buying an existing vehicle and retrofitting it with Apple tech) could be a better path.
 
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