If they try to go full autonomous I doubt they’ll ever release a car. But an EV? They should do that.
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Apple Car Autonomous Driving Scaled Down, Launch Planned for 2028
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If they try to go full autonomous I doubt they’ll ever release a car. But an EV? They should do that.
If your car hurts someone because its parking brake failed, you are not liable. If you are using FSD as intended then FSD is liable for any accidents.
They may have had that initially but only because the big manufacturers hadn’t committed to EV yet. But now General Motors (Chevrolet), Volkswagen, Hyundai, Ford, Mercedes-Benz and others are all in on EV. These are MASSIVE companies with resources Tesla can’t even dream of. Their lead in units shipped has already slipped drastically and they’re likely to become an also-ran player in the EV market by 2030. They just don’t have the resources, networks or experience that the big automotive players have. And it doesn’t help that Musk himself has become a pretty serious drag on Tesla sales.
The former has been proven in court, the latter still needs to be addressed because FSD isn't there yet.
Of course. The legal precedents regarding FSD haven't been established yet.
But both are examples of damages caused when using something as the manufacturer intended.
If you imagine automotive regulations of this nature are a simple matter, you’re wrong. The car companies will lobby to avoid liability. They’ll do this around EVs WAY harder than around hand breaks. The comparison is barely valid anyway. A parked car’s hand break (a mechanical system with few parts) failing isn’t in the same galaxy as an autonomous vehicle filled with passengers driving into another vehicle filled with passengers.
I think electric cars have their place and use. I never really was a proponent to the self driving car but something changed my position.
I was sitting with my father in law, suffering from Parkinson's. He said aging is horrible but the single most thing that makes it worse is losing the independence gained with the ability to drive. We all know that there was various services to drive people but it's still a dependency.
He hopes that the next generation will have self driving cars to extend the independence of an aging generation that much longer.
Sometimes it's taking in the perspective and experience of someone else to cause a paradigm shift.
I was sitting with my father in law, suffering from Parkinson's. He said aging is horrible but the single most thing that makes it worse is losing the independence gained with the ability to drive. We all know that there was various services to drive people but it's still a dependency.
He hopes that the next generation will have self driving cars to extend the independence of an aging generation that much longer.
Sometimes it's taking in the perspective and experience of someone else to cause a paradigm shift.
There is plenty of legal precedent that you are not liable for a mechanical failure of your car. But this is purely an academic discussion until FSD reaches the level we are talking about.
MB is the first to have a level 3 certification in California, see link below. When that was announced last year there were discussions and they stated that MB is not liable in case of accident - that liability is what really matters and Tesla will make sure that they will not be liable ...
Conditionally automated driving: Mercedes-Benz DRIVE PILOT further expands U.S. availability to the country’s most populous state through California certification
Mercedes‑Benz today announced that its class-leading DRIVE PILOT system for SAE Level 3 conditionally automated driving received certification from California state authorities.
Not sure why I would ever put any faith in a rumour that alleges that the Apple Car was already unveiled somehow, but the one upside if the Apple Car is ever unveiled is that Apple would finally have a product where they could charge $500 for wheels and no one would complain (Wait, where am I? Never mind... someone would probably still complain). 😃
what? I don't think you understand how auto liability insurance works...
If only it was that simple. You’d have to prove it was defective; and that you used and maintained it properly.
In addition, a mechanical design is a lot easier to prove it was defective or bad design than a software system.
IANAL, but I think an argument can be made for the owner’s liability if they failed to monitor the system properly and an accident ensued. I think, baded on how other industries require oversight of automated systems, car drivers will be expevted to do the same and found liable if they fail to do so.
I suspect car manufacturers will build in safeguards to ensure driver attention, if only so if a driver doesn’t they can say it’s the driver’s fault for overriding safeguards.
This is spot on and maybe further supported by recent sales where BYD is starting to eclipse Tesla in China- a huge market. Not rooting against Tesla just trying to understand the market and where Apple fits in. Having said that, I think Musk's social media distractions are a real problem for Tesla given the rapidly expanding choice in the EV market.
California and the 14 other states that follow California law will only allow zero tailpipe emission cars in 2035.
New gas cars will be gone from most of the world in only 15 years.
Just TRY can get a 20-year bank loan to build out gasoline infrastructure after 2035. No banker will fund the project knowing that you'd go bankrupt before repaying the loan. With no one able to build new refineries or build new gas stations or even buy a gasoline tanker truck, the price of gas will skyrocket. I can see $20+ per gallon prices by 2040.
The switchover will be like when we went from film to digital cameras. After a long, slow ramp-up, the speed of the transition hit a tipping point and then it happened overnight. What is holding up the transition now is the price of batteries. There simply are not enough factories making batteries yet. This will change soon and many are under construcction.
Apple will sell a few cars at very high profit margins. They will never be a big player. Their goal is to take the best, most profitable 2% of the market.
They will likely have the cars made under contract just like they do with phones and computers. Apple does not own factories. Apple outsources manufacturing and will do the same with cars.
Yes, you are 100% correct on that. But the expansion of the market is downward. Today you are spending 40K or more to buy an EV. The expansion will come from $20K cars. Once the cost of ownership of EVs is low enough we will have reached a tipping point and the transition will be faster than anyone has predicted. A $20K EV should be possible.
I am sure Apple is looking at the $80K or $100K and up price point.
Tesla already mentioned that they would be liable once they remove the beta label.
Apple doesn't have to control the car market. Right now they sell zero cars. If they make a good car it should sell accordingly and with a healthy profit knowing Apple. Their first three years they'll probably do an artificially limited run to focus on quality. They will likely never aim for Tesla numbers, rather focus on more niche high end market to be associated with the likes of premium brands to establish that image for themselves in the car space.
TL;DR: I do not see a car being profitable enough for it to be a long-term product for Apple.
The problem is the most profitable market varies by geographical region. In the US, it's full sized trucks and SUVs. In Europe, SUVs are the best selling as well; but they likely aren't the mammoth US ones but compact SUVs.
If they go for the supercar market, they have to overcome some strong brand loyalty and likely most buyers will be just the "I want one cause, well, I can afford it out of pocket money," which may not be enough to sustain a product line long term. I think it would be tough to recoup R&D costs to keep coming out with new models and teh play would simply be to showcase technology to sell to other manufacturers.
I agree, developing their own production facilities would be too expensive and risky vs using a proven suppler such as Magna Steyr.
I don't think that is an apt comparison. Digital made it easier for many people to take and enjoy photos - no more buying ilm, getting it processed only to find out you dind't get teh shots you wanted. EVs do not provide simila rbenefits and have some negatives that make them less desirable in consumer minds.
Another challenge is charging. Until that is as convenient as gas, EVs will not become widely popular. The infrastructure problem just extend to roads, either. For locations where apartments are popular it is not easy to install a charger in a garage, assuming you have a garage and parking space, as there may not be electrical outlets readily available and metering capability to charge the person using the charger if one is available. Not an unsolvable issue but one that currently limits EV adoption, IMHO.
Apple has to reinvent precisely nothing. They need to focus on making a good car with good reliability and a good experience, and then put an Apple logo on it. The car market is changing and coalescing around several key technologies such as electric motors, batteries, battery charging technology, charging infrastructure, software UX design and automation and safety assistance, and the roadmap for the auto industry in this modern era is becoming more clear. Apple can focus on after sales and being there for Apple car owners after the sale to give them a loaner car while they fix their car to a high standard—customer service stuff. Many car makers fall short in this basic area and it would be great to bring things to a new standard of expectation here.
What makes car design interesting for me are all of the boring features you use on the daily, and to focus on all of those details are what sets one car apart from another. For example, Tesla had the idea to make door handles flush to reduce drag, but have yet to nail that design. Those paddle handles are terrible and designed thusly to reduce drag and reduce weight, but fail in the delight and useably metric. Some innovation or rethinking in such basic areas are what I'm personally looking for in terms of car design in the industry. The need to focus on the key areas is an absolute given, but what I'm looking for with an Apple car is attention to detail on all the boring everyday details.
Two physical centrally located multi-use dials for a number of basic everyday features such as HVAC and heated seating would be most welcome (the big landscape display should be for deep car functions and infotainment). Qi2 charging for everyone in the car (at least four of them). Door handles that are a delight to use. Imagine the car door handles were flush 2" circles designed to be pushed in (sensing the slightest pressure inward—not wind) and in return the door pops out to me you, assisted by a motor for door opening in all manner of conditions. None of this see-saw flappy paddle nonsense. Just a basic button that works.
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