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Apple Car Won't Be Ready for At Least Half a Decade

Seems like Apple is doing everything Tesla has already done.

Custom in-house designed self-driving computer - check
Magna as a supplier - check

Still on the to-do list are

hire people familiar with getting a car certified in various locales
set up dealership/service network
get expertise in supporting car logistics
create/buy charging infrastructure
build factories
hire autonomous driving developers from Tesla
be ready to take massive losses for years

If I were deciding, I would create specs and design and let one of the many EV manufacturing companies in China build the car and drop an Apple Autonomous unit. Or do a deal with Tesla, GM, ... someone already in the car business.
 
Ramping up vehicle production is such an incredibly daunting challenge...

No company has ever managed to go from 0 vehicles produced to 1M produced in under 5 years. Tesla took 12 years, Hyundai took a similar amount of time, and most others were in that same range or even slower.

Is Apple interested in undergoing this project when the earliest they could possibly have 1M vehicles on the road is in 2030 (at a time when Tesla will have 40M vehicles already on the road.)
 
farewelwilliams said:
Their team is focused on figuring out how to build a car for at least the next few years it seems. Tesla already knows how to build a car and so their engineering team is already looking at the next thing.
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They barely know how to build cars, that don't fall apart at delivery. Have you seen some of the photos of just delivered Teslas with the seats not affixed etc.?

Tesla's advantage is hugely overblown by the fans of the company. Yes, it is remarkable what they have been able to pull off. But they have done nothing that others can't do. The supercharger network for example will be more of a problem than an advantage in the future, because all other manufactures have come together for a standard different from Tesla's. They have been working on their charging networks as well.

Electric cars are expected to be cheaper than cars with internal cumbustion engines in the next five to ten years. That's when the music really starts, because then it will not be a niche product anymore, but the new normal.

Sure, Tesla might survive until then. Maybe they even will stay profitable. But do they have an advantage over established automakers? No. They are lucky when they survive.

Can Apple pull something like this off? Sure, why not. It's complex, because of the many, many elements of a car. But Apple has the financial means. And the electric car market could be really interesting.

I am very skeptical about the self-driving stuff. There have been several reports lately about that topic and how development has stalled.

Teslas "self-driving" is mostly dangerous marketing speak by the way. It mostly works in Elon Musks phantasy world …
 
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i can wait
save some money up if i like it
it should have space x self recovering rocket boosters on it
 
Braderunner said:
I'm sure Apple is also cooking up crazy new ideas. On top of that, Apple won't have the cash problem that Tesla did when it first started. Just sayin'. :cool:
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Tesla still has a cash and profit problem.

Ignoring the insane valuation, Tesla still isn’t very profitable.
 
farewelwilliams said:
Tesla can already drive from LA to Silicon Valley with fairly minimal human intervention. I believe the driver only took over to charge the car during the entire trip in this video.

Tesla says they'll have FSD up to their target safety numbers this year. I don't believe that, but I can definitely see that within the next 5 years.
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You are going to be shocked when other car manufacturers copy this and improve it versus allowing their businesses to just die. It’s just not time yet.

Remember, besides an insane speculative valuation, Tesla is still a boutique vehicle manufacturer in a pool of many more desirable, better cars being available today producing massively more cars for people who need and want better value, luxury, speed, reliability, range, etc.

If you think BMW, Porsche, Mercedes, Audi, Ford, GM, VW, and others are just going to pack up and say, WELP....you’re going to be mistaken.

Tesla made $600M in profit the last 12 months and is trading at $750B today. Do you know how insane that is from a fundamental perspective?

I LOVE Elon and believe Tesla makes a great product, for now, but the company is valued at Disney and Walmart combined. Disney and Walmart made over $40B in the last 12 months.

I understand growth and excitement, but Tesla is on a different planet and completely speculative as an investment today. It’s niche still and when it’s not, other car companies are going to compete. Monopolies don’t exist in a free market, particularly on cars.
 
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tzm41 said:
I kinda doubt that full self driving will be ready in the next five years... based on my observations in the advancements in CV and AI.
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Oh it will.

Look at Tesla, they released a beta of FSD to a few people last month and it's absolutely insane. Ten years ago, I would have said I would never see that in my existence. I was 22...
The biggest challenge is behind them, as opposed to every other manufacturers where it's clearly ahead of them.

At this point, Tesla's on track to release a "final, but forever improving" version that drives better than humans before next Christmas.
 
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bob122989 said:
How to count to 100 like a journalist:

A, both, several, five, half a dozen, more than half a dozen, nearly 10, nearly a dozen, a dozen, more than a dozen, nearly two dozen, a score, nearly two dozen (again), dozens, scores, 50, more than 50, more than 75, nearly a hundred, 100.

(Credit
https://twitter.com/x/status/1255677366296285185
)
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The most underrated and easy to miss part of this is “nearly two dozen” on both sides of a score. Hate it in usage (sensationalism) but love the humor in the analysis.
 
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farewelwilliams said:
Their team is focused on figuring out how to build a car for at least the next few years it seems. Tesla already knows how to build a car and so their engineering team is already looking at the next thing.

It's not like Apple can throw unlimited cash at the project. They have shareholders to answer to so they still do have to be mindful of the budget.
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Your opinions are based on nothing more than the fact that you think Teslas are cool, and not on any facts or logic.

Tesla vehicles are the lowest quality crap on 4 wheels since the Yugo. It is impossible to look at any Tesla, and not spot uneven panel gaps, leather stitching coming apart, orange peel paint or ripples, and that's just the cosmetic stuff.

Parts flying off a car are unheard off with other brands, but with Tesla the rate at which roof panels, bumpers, and other parts fall off is comical. Multiple recalls have been issued for things like roofs coming off due to poor quality adhesives or forgetting to use the correct primer, loose steering components due to corroding bolts, and improperly routed battery cables that resulted in fires. All of these defects have one thing in common, poor quality control and manufacturing processes.

Also, there isn't anything uniquely special about them with respect to automation or in-car technology. Tesla is particularly good at battery and motor technology. That's it. But even that isn't a huge competitive advantage, as Porsche and even Ford are now producing electric vehicles with similar (though not as good) efficiency. It won't be long before these better-funded competitions (who don't have the QC problems Tesla has) catch up and even surpass Tesla.

And you are wrong. Apple can throw stupid amounts of money at the project, assuming it even exists. Apple spent $16 billion in R&D in 2019, and is forecast to spend $20 billion in 2020. Tesla, during its entire existence, has spent around $7 billion---about what Apple spends in 4 months.

You are also wrong that Apple has "shareholders to answer to" with respect to R&D spending. Shareholders have zero say in R&D spending, and Tim Cook does not need shareholder approval to allocate funds to R&D.

Even if he did need approval from someone (more likely the board), it is absurd to think that they would basically say, "Sorry Tim, can't afford it." Apple could spend triple what Tesla has spent in the last 10 years, and still have $175 billion in cash left over.
 
Braderunner said:
I'm sure Apple is also cooking up crazy new ideas. On top of that, Apple won't have the cash problem that Tesla did when it first started. Just sayin'. :cool:
Click to expand...

Tesla has over 2 billion miles recorded and user data. Apple doesn't have ANY data if they're trying to do self-driving which I'm sure they're aiming for.
 
I find it hard to believe that Apple wants to get into the car business since the infrastructure required would be massive. I also find it hard to believe that Apple would simply develop the platform for self-driving vehicles and license it out to car manufacturers since they like to control the who customer experience. I really don't know what to make of these rumors.
 
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ArtOfWarfare said:
What are you talking about? Tesla already has vehicles with 400+ miles of range and quicker than the Mach-E, and the next generation Plaid vehicles should put a massive gap between it and the Mach-E. Ford doesn't even try to compare the Mach-E against Tesla's vehicles because they'd lose that comparison so soundly.
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Tesla is ahead in both range and acceleration, but it's not a huge gap. Moreover, Tesla has been working on electric vehicles for 17 years. Ford less than 4 years. In a few years, that gap will close, and many manufacturers will offer vehicles that not only offer better performance and efficiency, but also don't suffer the same QC issues.
 
Me: Please take me to the grocery store
Self Driving Car: Taking you to the police because of a social media post
Me: Tries manual override
Self Driving Car: Denies manual override and freezes door locks and windows
Me: Next time...the bus.
 
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