There are 2 months till the launch of the ipad, and 3 until the launch of the 3G model.... I think the reasons steve showed intentionally the pages with broken flash is to say to them (new york times etc.) "you have 60 days, fix your flash content or your site will be an embarrassment," I honestly think this steve is convinced since flash is not an open standard, it doesn't belong on the web. That is why they pushed H264, HTML5, Javascript, WebGL, SVG, Canvas etc...
Also, if you take this motivation into account, and recent developments, apple, for right or wrong, feels the days of flash are numbered (there's nothing WebGL + Javascript can't do that flash can according to some), so in that context, if you put flash in now, it'll never go away... and when the day comes to say "flash is irrelevant" it'll still be hard say to consumers "next version of iPad is removing flash support!" It'll never work... if they put it in, they'll never be able to take it out... thats probably their thinking...
Apple doesn't get much of a cut from music and movies (unless you think they lie to the gov't), and hulu is limited to the US, so I don't know about that angle... I'm sure they wouldn't mind selling more apps though...