problem I see with that number at 20% is economy crashed happened. Budgets were cut big time and IT was often top of the list in terms of hardware. Instead of doing planned replacements they were put on hold. I know some servers from someone I know personally he had to put on hold several upgrades due to lack of funds. Server upgrades and replacement needed but he knew he could push it another year or 2. But it going to make it tight. When things kick back up I bet you see a huge growth in servers as they are going to rushing to replace the aging equipment that had to be put on hold.
This trend has been happening in the server market for years before the recession. The server market has become commoditized with increasingly thin margins due to low-end Wintel and Linux blade servers pushing up from the bottom. This is why IBM is focusing on services that have recurring revenues and why HP acquired EDS to compete with IBM in that arena. It's also why HP and Dell went in a bidding war for a little-known storage technology company.
Sure the economy will pick up someday but the likes of IBM and HP are entrenched on the high-end with multi-million dollar servers and mainframes and they also dominate the cheap blade server segment with Wintel and Linux along with Dell. Sun is virtually finished and I don't see how Oracle could right the Sun ship as they have absolutely no experience with hardware.
Sun was a vertically integrated server maker with their own SPARC CPU, their own OS with Solaris, Java which they developed but was forced to give away, their own server designs and various middleware offerings. Due to Sun's relatively small volume, they didn't have the economy of scale to compete with the the super cheap Wintel and Linux servers and they couldn't compete with the high-end servers from IBM and HP who had the resources to develop offerings that far outperformed what Sun could come up with.
Since this market has become commoditized and is shrinking, everyone in this sector is losing money or barely breaking even. What value proposition does Apple have to compete here? Apple is growing the phone business at 91% rate, the iPad is the fastest selling consumer electronics product in history, and the Mac is growing at 27% rate despite the crummy economy. What can Apple do with a server that the likes of IBM, HP and Dell can't? Why will IT departments pay the Apple premium when these entrenched and very experienced big boys of the enterprise market can do it much cheaper and much better?
I believe Apple has a very good shot at becoming big in the enterprise but as the premier provider of thin mobile clients - specifically the iPhone and the iPad. That's what the whole Unisys deal was about. Apple hired Unisys so that they can integrate these devices into the IT infrastructure of companies like Bank of America, Citicorp, Disney, Hyatt, and various other Fortune 500 companies. The money for enterprise computing is in software, consulting and systems integration, not the hardware.
Nobody is denying these numbers. However, the important thing about enterprise market is to be able to provide comprehensive solutions. Admittedly, Apple could not do it even before but now it is possible that some companies that might otherwise buy Mac Pros would start looking elsewhere. I guess somewhat valid analogy could be iPods and iTunes. Not that Apple makes great money from iTunes but imagine what would happened if they stopped supporting it.
If you look at Apple's financials, the server/enterprise segment isn't even mentioned nor does it seem like a blip on Apple's radar as far as revenues and profits are concerned. This segment just doesn't fit in with what Apple does - providing powerful and stylish mobile clients that access a rich ecosystem of content, info, apps, and various services on the cloud.
Apple can manage their own cloud (like the NC data center and others that I'm sure they'll build around the world), but they don't need to provide the gear that go into these data centers. For their own internal data center needs, Apple uses a hodge-podge of gear and software from IBM/AIX, Sun/Solaris, Linux, SAP, Oracle databases, and even Windows. The Xserve and the OS X Server were never meant for running multi-billion dollar operations.
I posted this on another thread and I'll post here again. Here are some typical IT job postings on Apple's site for both their HQ in Cupertino and the data center in NC:
http://jobs.apple.com/index.ajs?BID=1&method=mExternal.showJob&RID=57374&CurrentPage=8
http://jobs.apple.com/index.ajs?BID=1&method=mExternal.showJob&RID=62314&CurrentPage=8
http://jobs.apple.com/index.ajs?BID=1&method=mExternal.showJob&RID=62312&CurrentPage=8
For SAP specialists:
http://jobs.apple.com/index.ajs?BID=1&method=mExternal.showJob&RID=60099&CurrentPage=6
http://jobs.apple.com/index.ajs?BID=1&method=mExternal.showJob&RID=62489&CurrentPage=6
http://jobs.apple.com/index.ajs?BID=1&method=mExternal.showJob&RID=52567&CurrentPage=7
Even a Windows specialist at the new NC data center:
http://jobs.apple.com/index.ajs?BID=1&method=mExternal.showJob&RID=63053&CurrentPage=11