same thing happened with legacy devices when the imac first came out. only supported usb. even imac themed printers that came out the same day as the imac had utilize an adb -> usb adapter. it was inconvenient for about 6 months.
This analogy is a bit strained for several reasons.
First, those were for the most part "personal" printers/devices/etc. Once you fixed your local situation it was fixed. This is the opposite. What you want is for 1,000s of websites to flip over from Flash containers to something else. That something else does not work in the web browser that has 70+% of the market (IE. ) . The kludge to make HTML5 like code work in IE is to use ...... Flash. The very thing you are trying to hypothesize will disappear quickly.
Is the current internet content currently dominated by crappy IE standards or by the code that works in the more ACID complaint standard browsers ?
Yes that is changing but in now where near has taken "6 months" to do. It is a process that is taking years to do.
Second, I think you underestimate the amount of tolerance many Flash consumers are going to put on this. For example a letter from one of the daring fireball discussions on this.
I was in line waiting for a coffee on Christmas day. In front of me was a kid, about nine or ten, who had an iPhone. He clearly had gotten it that morning. He was pushing frantically at a white box on a web page with the broken plug-in symbol. He was squeezing it, swiping it. He was frustrated and on the verge of getting pissed with his new toy. ..... He didn’t want an App Store game; he wanted his Flash game.
http://daringfireball.net/2010/01/apple_adobe_flash
Is the iPad going to appear "magical" to some other kid who unknowingly hits the same problem ? I don't think so. That is a crappy user experience and most likely Apple will get an earful of complaints as folks run into this in larger numbers. Similarly, more folks are going to "excuse" the iPhone because it is a 'better than nothing' solution. too small screen, excessive zoom/pan to see content. The iPad is suppose to negate those. That fallback excuse isn't going to be there. Apple never set the expectation point that the iPhone/touch were the ultimate browsing experience. A convenient one perhaps, but not ultimate.
Note that Apple itself has to repeatedly resort to photoshopping the depiction of the NYTimes home page in there iPad collateral.
I know, I know the response is going to be "there is an app for that". So break would can see on the internet and replace internet browsing with app buying. That is about as crappy as an overall solution as Flash is reported to be.
Apple's strategy of trying to push Flash out may succeed. However, it is extremely unlikely to significantly succeed in less that 2 years though.
If Adobe gets their act together and has a successful 10.1 deployment on the rest of the mobile/smartphone market (and hooked into the H.264 hardware decode where available) even more likely to be a protracted battle.