Apple would have to be in the 70-75%+ marketshare range AND egregiously using blatantly illegal means to maintain that marketshare by poisoning the competitive process before they would even get a Microsoft-style slap on the wrist. Simply being a successful business using normal contract terms to enforce their own business interests is not going to rise to the level of an anti-trust violation nor will it qualify them as a sanctionable monopoly. Courts have spent decades refining their methods for determining the difference between competitive and exclusionary conduct and simply harming competitors does not make a company anti-competitive and likewise being extremely successful does not make a company automatically an illegal monopoly simply becuse it crosses some arbitrary marketshare threshold.Apple iOS has approximately 58% share of mobile OS market in the U.S. (percentage can vary by country) and since Apple's App Store is the "exclusive" app store for that market, it could potentially be argued that the App Store therefore has similar share and monopoly power. This can depend on how the jurisdiction/judge/etc. decides to define share.
One of the greatest ironies is that one thing Apple has been accused of, “premium pricing and profit maximization,” may be one of the things that proves they have not been anti-competitive. Apple has never, to my knowledge, undercut a competitor simply to maximize their market share. Instead Apple has achieved their market position despite charging a premium for their products and services and have done this while starting as a minority entrant in the mobile phone market and competing through organic growth of their own isolated ecosystem against a healthy field of established and emerging competitors that entered the market at much lower price points. Even at times when Apple seems to be charging less, comparison shopping shows that they are simply charging the market rate.
A Judge may take issue with the appearance of Apple’s position on some point of contention and issue a token ruling on a minor aspect of one of these cases and kick it up the ladder for a higher court to affirm or overturn, but short of new laws there likely will never be a US court ruling against Apple for being a monopoly.
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