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The only way that this thing could work is if somewhow, Apple had this hidden cluster of servers, with a pretty good multi modal LLM to serve as voice UX. Full image recognition and so on.
 
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Great example. That's exactly what I was remembering. I think I had been following the rumors before that original iPad launched, and I think most people's jaw dropped when they realized it was actually within their financial reach.
And they were big legit sources too, I think WSJ was one of them.
 
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Not sure what the killer app for this will be. At that price a killer app will be mandatory.
the killer AR app is replacing every other screen in your life. I don't expect this first draft to be great, but the AR future literally promises to change reality. Hate how many cars are silver? Tell your Apple headset to make silver cars appear pink to you. Want to watch an IMAX film from bed? tell the headset to put an IMAX screen in front of your face. Want to bring 3 30" displays with you on a weekend trip? just tell your headset to project them over your keyboard/compute module. The uses are endless. Want to walk the dog at 10pm but have it appear sunny outside? Why not, use LIDAR, cameras, and more to reconstruct noon lighting in headset. The power and uses of a fully functional AR headset are terrifying, this isn't a product searching for a killer app, it's THE killer app, but the hardware and software aren't there yet.

AR is the next step in tech and whoever wins AR will control the perception of reality for a huge number of people. I expect this device to be more Newton or knowledge navigator than iPhone or iPad, but head mounted AR displays will be at least as big a deal as smartphones, maybe in the late 2020s. maybe not until the 2040s. It's coming and I'm frankly shocked by how many people don't see how huge this will be, even if there's a great chance Apple's first headset will flop.
 
If it costs even half of what’s predicted and doesn’t ship with strong gaming capabilities and catalog (which seems unlikely), I really feel like any tech advantage won’t be enough to win out consumers.

Apple really needs to find a very compelling use case, otherwise I feel they’re better off shipping something technically inferior but at a price point where people feel they can dabble in the tech a bit. So far every article is discussing apps and capabilities that exist on iOS and Mac, and while this might extend those apps much further, it’s also a device that’s unlikely to have as much utility and portability too which is a big trade off.
 
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They need a killer app to make it successful but what is that? If you look at the other VR headsets they are usually novelty gifts on Christmas Day put in a drawer to never be reused.
It's not VR, it's mixed reality or AR. HUGE difference. This isn't for gamers to spend a couple hours a week in weird novelty games (imo, VR will never take off for gaming outside of driving/flight sims because of the lack of real world movement space in the average home). It's to replace every screen you own with an entire paradigm shift. Properly executed an AR headset is a larger sea change than the smartphone in how humans interact with computers. I am so shocked by how many people don't see the power to replace every screen you own and fundamentally reshape your perception of reality as a big deal. When the tech matures, you'll be able to walk on a treadmill at the gym but really believe you're hiking kilamajaro. then go home and watch IMAX quality movies from your bedroom. You'll be able to change the colors of other people's clothes, reshape the skyline of your city, turn any wall into a collaborative whiteboard for an impromptu brainstorming session. And so much more.

Think back 15+ years to the time when doing the things we do with our smartphones on a daily basis (messaging, media playback, photography and videography, web browsing, directions, and more) took half a dozen devices that cost 10s of thousands of dollars. And even then the experience was 1/10th of what a new iPhone can do.

This headset is likely more the Newton than the iPhone, but there's no doubt in my mind that AR is THE killer app to kill all apps. It will change the world and your perception of reality more than anything humans have ever invented if someone can pull off a good AR system.

Personally, an AR headset that can replace my existing screens for only $3k is a savings day one -- it replaces 2 monitors, 2 TVs, an iPad an iPhone and an Apple Watch, not to mention the screen on my MBP, and my various sets of headphones. All of that would be replaced with a headset plus "compute module," or headless laptop.

I don't expect to buy this 1.0 headset. I won't be surprised if functional AR is a decade plus out, but it's blindingly obvious to me that AR is the current holy grail, the way the late 80s-late 2000s were dedicated to creating what became the modern smartphone, the next 10-20 years will be about creating the AR headset as primary computing form factor.
 
Sorry, this isn't going to be mainstream successful because most people aren't going to be walking around with this on their face. You want it to really work? Make their size as close to regular glasses as possible. Unfortunately, that's not possible with current technology.
 
I’ll wait for the Apple Holodeck to be released. Probably wouldn’t ever leave it…
You do get that AR is basically holodeck tech, right? You can decide to walk around your block in the city but visually see it as wandering a medieval village. That's what this is for. Changing the user's perception of reality. This headset won't do that, but the Newton didn't change how humanity interfaces with computers, the iPhone did. And we had to learn the lessons from things like the Newton to make the iPhone possible.
 
I’m very confused about this question of a “killer app”. What is the “killer app” on the iPhone, iPad, or Mac?

They have already been released by Apple, they have an Apple logo on them, and Apple has taken the stage and given people some uses of them. ;)

This thing is still mostly behind the curtain, mockups have no Apple logo, Apple has not yet taken the stage. So it appears our collective imaginations are limited to some variation of Meta Oculus. Most of us can't seem to think beyond this concept that if this thing is able to show us an alternate reality that looks as real as actual reality, it can show us anything we could possibly want to see... which then creates opportunities for everything we would pay to see to come to us wherever we are.

Now, tack on some buds and perhaps the second most important sense can hear anything we want to hear... to further the illusion of being ANYWHERE at ANY point in time, experiencing anything that might please those 2 (biggest?) senses.

Those 2 ANYTHINGS are insanely powerful. Fool both the eyes and ears into seeing & hearing ANYTHING and the applications of that power could be dazzling.

I foresee PLENTY of "killer apps" potential with those 2 powers delivered well. I have 0% perception that the bulk of the punch of this product is games, where we are cutting bricks flying at us in half. Apple has been at this much too long to roll out Apple Oculus ++.

We're supposed to be the "think different" crowd. And yet- on this product- we seem to only be able to imagine "the same." Are we the ones who are supposed to "think different" or is only the corporation able to do that and we need them to show us new and different things because our imaginations are completely shot?

Fire up those imaginations! What would you really love to see but can't for whatever reason?

  • How about courtside at the playoffs (how much are courtside seats to a single game?). How much would courtside be to ALL of the games? For a whole season if you really love some sport(s)?
  • How about front row center for a season of Broadway? How much would those tickets cost... and flights to/from NYC... and lodging for each show?
  • How much would it cost to see ALL of the Cirques all over the world in person and in the best seats in the house?
  • How about NFL Sunday Ticket VR (the same offering Hulu bought repackaged as a VR service exclusive for this)?
  • How much is front row for Taylor Swift going for? How about all of your favorite music acts?
  • Olympics?
  • Museums far far away?
  • Lunch on the Moon? Dinner once every week in Paris or London or anywhere?
  • How much is that African safari (that you may not every really get to do)?
  • How much on the bucket list may be beyond ever being achieved in person but could possibly come to you this way for "next best thing" experiences?
  • The Beatles in Hamburg about 1962? Elvis in 1956? ANY historical event is only a VR coding project away (all modern gaming is pretty much already 3D worlds created from nothing... but most of us can only view those worlds through a 2D rectangle). VR apps of desirable historical events could be coded much like immersive games are coded. Ed Sullivan: "And here they are... the Beatles!"
  • There's already hologram-based shows like the Frank Sinatra concert. This could have Frank come perform wherever you are. Frank Sinatra seeming to be there LIVE in your living room... not on a 2D rectangle but apparently in 3D... as if he is really there with you... performing for you.
  • If you had a time machine and could go see anything that has ever happened, where would you go? Talk about "walking with dinosaurs"??? WOW! What would you pay for even a 30-minute reality tour in the Cretaceous period?
  • And on... and on... and on.

"Think different!" You can still do it if you try. Try!
 
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I’m very confused about this question of a “killer app”. What is the “killer app” on the iPhone, iPad, or Mac?
it's not so much "an app" as the packaging. Which is what all the doubters are missing. The smartphone, by the time it matured in about 2010 brought mobile computing, media consumption, still camera, camcorder, communication and more all into a pocket sized, affordable device. For most people's everyday needs it did more than any computer at a lower price. It killed the camcorder, cell phone, point and shoot camera, PDA, portable DVD player, UMPC, mp3 player, and most of the ereader market by combining a 'good enough' version of those devices in one cheap package.

AR will do the same but also roll up TVs and computer monitors at the very minimum. Plus once mature will allow a user to fundamentally alter the fabric of their reality, to see infrared beams or turn Black objects blue. To make their jog in a gym feel like a mountaintop stroll. This first gen device is likely mostly useless, unless there's some super great integration with AppleTV and Macs (ideally also with PCs and Roku, but that's a pipe dream) to replace monitors and TVs for many users, but it will allow developers and early adopters to start developing the AR future.

The Newton was basically useless, and a 2007 iPhone was honestly not all that either, but it laid the groundwork for huge societal changes to come over the next few years. Well executed, AR headsets can be the next smartphones.
 
They have already been released by Apple, they have an Apple logo on them, Apple has taken the stage and given people some uses of them. ;)

This is still mostly behind the curtain, mockups have no Apple logo, Apple has not yet taken the stage. So it appears our collective imaginations are limited to some variation of Meta Oculus. Most of us can't seem to think beyond this concept that if this thing is able to show us an alternate reality that looks as real as actual reality, it can show us anything we could possibly want to see... which then creates opportunities for everything we would pay to see to come to us wherever we are.

Now, tack on some buds and perhaps the second most important sense can hear anything we want to hear... to further the illusion of being ANYWHERE at ANY point in time, experience anything that might please those 2 senses.

Those 2 ANYTHINGS are insanely powerful. Fool both the eyes and ears into seeing & hearing ANYTHING and the applications of that power could be dazzling.

I foresee PLENTY of "killer apps" potential with those 2 powers delivered well. I have 0% perception that the bulk of the punch of this product is games where we are cutting bricks flying at us in half. Apple has been at this much too long to roll out Apple Oculus ++.
So much this. VR has remained a sideshow because it's so stuck on lame gaming uses. The killer app of a head mounted computer is to change the user's perception of reality. To make walking the dog literally look and sound like a trip back in time or to another planet. This headset won't be all the way there, but it has to come out to allow the future to be developed
 
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This is what the future may look like but I don't think Apple is nowhere close. The hardware will be there but not the software.

For some reason this makes me want to go out and interact with human beings and make new friends.
All the meta crap is beyond dumb. That Walmart demo is just a way to make online shopping worse. What AR ideally does is make actual shopping better. Whether by making the drab Walmart look like an exotic bazaar, providing directions around the store/routing/shopping list reminders, fetching price comparisons from online and other local stores, or something we can’t even think of. But it can’t be developed if there’s no hardware out there.

Meta missed the mark by a galaxy, by trying to make things computers are good at more like “real life” activities while you’re still fundamentally scrolling a feed in your pajamas. AR should aim to do the opposite, to bring the strengths of computing to the strengths of real life and create a fusion that’s better than either on their own.
 
I really do not understand the negativity around the evolution of this type of technology (or any technology, but especially in MacRumors lately). And, a recurring point that many try to make is "there needs to be a killer app for it to be a success". Really? Just one?

If the rumors have an ounce of truth, and I think they do, this device is the culmination of a stack of technologies and even processors now, that Apple has researched, refined, miniaturized, optimized, and strategically monetized along the way. All bundled into a small, convenient package. It doesn't need one single "killer app". It is the platform for a whole new genre of apps and services. It will normalize what has been a niche or rather, mostly science fiction till now. Next gen games, media, and communication should be obvious, but new types of content creation and production and development tools will emerge as well. To argue that it will miserably fail because there is no single use case or killer app is like arguing that a 5K OLED monitor will fail because everyone has been happily satisfied with 640x480 CRTs and there is not killer app for higher resolution monitors. But, even that analogy falls short to what next gen VR/MR/AR is going to do for nearly every industry. We're about to leap from a flat rectangular world of computation and visualizations to something entirely new, a wildly new level of immersion and interaction. There won't be just one killer app. And this leap is the beginning of what Apple does best, continuous iterative improvements.

One concern I do have is that they'll be so far ahead of competitors that we won't have good competition for a while. While I do enjoy the quality of Apple's products, I think competition in the space is still critical. It not only gives content creators options, it causes openness, common protocols and workflows, and it will push that continuous improvement that we've experienced for decades with our aging rectangular screens.
 
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It's possible that Apple is actually leaking the USD3,000 price itself. It could be a way to raise industry expectations of an "expensive" product. That way, when the product is actually released at USD1,499, people will flock to it in droves 😉

I think we underestimate Apple's power to manipulate market expectations.

Then again, it would be no surprise to see this positioned as a premium product with a correspondingly high price tag...
$1,499 maybe five years after the release of the first generation. $2,499 is possible.
 
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Not sure what the killer app for this will be. At that price a killer app will be mandatory.
Well I can think of 3 use cases right off the top of my head without even going to adult content, and my uses are never what Apple has in mind. I have to assume that over the long course of this things development, someone at Apple thought of their own compelling reason to build it.

I haven’t heard “killer app” in quite a while though.
 
Apple would probably need to embrace adult content which I think is unlikely.
How would Porn, on a bigger virtual screen, be a killer app? a headset can't make you feel things, only see or hear them. The best you could do adult-wise with VR is maybe change your partner's appearance and make your bedroom look like a dungeon or whatever other fetish location you desire. Adult content is probably the least affected experience by the coming AR revolution. Most Audiovisual media is about making you feel emotions, so changing them immersive experiences is a benefit, but adult content is mostly about lust/physical feelings, and appearing like you're in the room a porno is being shot in doesn't change that very much.
 
...

"Think different!" You can still do it if you try. Try!
Apple is obviously staging for all of that and more. All of that, AND immersed in new types of movies/worlds/media PLUS attending those events with your friends and family no matter where they are, they can be right there with you. Sure, nothing beats the real thing, but I'd still love to sit down with a cup of coffee and talk with friends or family anytime, anywhere.
 
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