The UK primarily trades with a handful of countries who care a lot about the implications of Brexit. The rest of the EU, not so much. Any deal has to be agreed with ALL member states. Businesses can grumble but I cannot see the likes of Greece agreeing to a preferential deal with the UK just to keep Germany happy after the sackcloth and ashes it was forced to don. There are other member states who really have had enough of the UK and have nothing to lose trade wise by our exiting the EU to say nothing of those who have plenty to gain.
Nor do the likes of Germany necessarily compete on price. It isn't a low-cost supplier like China. The people who buy BMWs or high-spec construction parts aren't suddenly going to swap them with Hyundais and breeze blocks after tariffs come in.
It is hard to gauge exactly what the balance of trade is between the EU and the UK because of the difficulty in measuring what are physical exports and what are services and by how much of either stay within the EU rather than use it as a transit point to the rest of the world. By the worst measure, the EU accounts for 44% of our total exports whilst the UK accounts for 8% of the EU's. Not a strong bargaining position to start from.
Yes all member states need to agree with the outcome, so what, that's not news. And if we don't get what we want we will just walk away, as stated in yesterday's speech.
Greece has been milking money from the EU to stop the country going bust for the last few years, I really don't think they have much of a bargaining chip with the rest of the EU that's propping that country up! And no country has had 'enough' of the UK, show some factual proof from the leaders of those country's to prove it and yes they do have plenty to lose, Poland has plenty of people here and they won't want the UK to kick them out and to damage it's links to this country. And BMW and the like have a very big market in the UK, the UK itself has around a 24 billion sterling deficit with the EU, are you saying that 24 billion sterling worth of business isn't important? I'm more then confident businesses will claim otherwise.
The UK has about a trillion dollars of trade with the EU, the only thing the EU wants is money, and I fell it's corporations will ensure they get good access to the UK market for it, which of course means we will get what we want.
All you need to do is google for facts, plenty out there, the UK has an INCREDIBLY strong position to bargain from. It's short sighted to state otherwise. The EU leaders will start to fold now as we have stated our position, they already have.
I read somewhere that separating from the EU is akin to each country turning a gun on themselves. The EU shooting itself in the foot and the UK shooting itself in the head!
What we do know is that the cost of imports from the EU could be unaffected, if the UK so chooses, as tariffs are put on products by importing countries not exporters. We know that our exports will be less competitive as tariffs will be imposed by the EU, they simply have no choice here. The net effect of this is fairly neutral whilst we have a devalued sterling. Any increases in tariffs will be offset by a weak and therefore cheap pound.
If the UK government decides to impose tariffs on imports from the EU this could also be beneficial. It will have the effect of making it more economical to manufacture goods and services at home rather than buying them in, this is ultimately the goal of any economy who chooses to devalue its currency.
The reason why I think it is wrong for us to 'Leave' is that ultimately the poorest in our society will be the ones who get screwed over in the short/medium term. We will have a cashflow crisis, investment in infrastructure, job creation, training, housing, already incredibly low, will get worse. Job creation, in proper full time permanent jobs, not zero hours, will become a less desirable. Government will do all they can to promote the economy, as they must, but this will be at the expense of workers rights. Ultimately the working class, the ones who build products and provide services, will be the ones who are set to get less out of the deal. In the medium to long term no one knows, I have a feeling we will end up where we destined to be.
An we will impose tariffs on the EU's imports to the UK which WILL damage the economy of those European countries', because the deficit is so much. We can do what we want as we won't have to fold into the EU's demands anymore.
Their will be no big negative impact on anything medium to long term, people seem to be very closed minded, we have been locked into the EU and the single market for so long now, successive governments have contineunly sold more and more and more of the UK down the EU river that we have locked ourselves out from the rest of the world.
We made the commonwealth yet we can't have people from those countries here working yet we MUST allow people from Europe?
People need to open their eye's, see the HUGE opportunities out there, realise just HOW RESPECTED the UK is, because it really is, and take the entire planet by the dangles because we will now have full, unadulterated, great access and opportunities to it all. Your a human being, an intelligent person, use that intelligence and go out there and grab the world, plenty of UK and global businesses are going to do that. Look at all those people that preached doom and gloom and the end of the world for the UK's economy, they've now been apologising for basically 'stretching the truth'!! Including the governor of the Bank Of England Mr Carney!!!!
An awful lot of porkies were told because plenty of the elite are making millions from the EU, as they are a tiny percent they can sod off. This country is for everyone and the people have shown that.
As for workers rights, did you not hear that they will be enforced in the UK, as will other laws and regulations. It's not like oh we all thick as s*** in the UK and are totally and utterly and completely helpless without the EU because we can't make any laws or regulations up... I think we are more then capable of forcing bent bananas to be binned because they aren't straight enough! And we can ditch the stupid laws that really impacted this country and our lives.
People should go and read up on what governments have done to the UK since John Major, that's when it started, in particular Tony Blair and Gordon Brown enjoyed giving our sovereignty away to the EU from around 2005, he's the reason the rebate the UK got from it's EU contributions fell by about 40%.
If you don't like that we are leaving, I suggest you chose very very very carefully who you vote into power.
