Apple Hints at a 'Product Transition' and a New Product Soon?

[caprica]

I think you guys aren't thinking outside the box enough . It wont just be an update to the MBP or the iMac or the iPhone. Think bigger . It wont be a new ipod or iphone update. think bigger again .

it will probably be something like:

iMarvin - your plastic pal who is fun to be with

 

[firewood]

Remember this is not a rumour, they have said there's a product transition that will SUBSTANTIALLY affect margins in this current quarter. Apple wants to get a leg up on competitors.

So
1) it's happening very soon (within one month)
2) it isn't going to be a simple change to area that is already well developed. (edited)
3) it affects a very large number of sales

Apple has huge revenues. To have a significant affect the margins on that magnitude of revenue , it might have to be a killer product category at a very different price point. Refreshes of the MacBook or iMac lines won't do that unless there's a significant price reduction, which seems very un-Apple. I can think of 4 other possibilities:

A big chart topping category would be to after the Nintendo Gameboy franchise. Use Apple's iPod manufacturing know-how to build a cheap sub $100 touch device with gaming controls. Use the entire Disney catalog to offset Miyamoto's magic. (Were there any Disney assets involved in the iPhone App Store's launch? Given Steve's connections?)

And has it been long enough since Steve killed off the Newton for him to (re)invent the idea of small tablets, except better designed as a proper fashion accessory now. Maybe the size of steno pad... an iPod Touch for people who's eyesight requires something that can display a page using more reasonably sized (large) fonts.

Or how about an Apple EEE PC for students? Textbook sized, thin and rugged as an iPod, and priced in the same range as a very small stack of college textbooks.

But the one I really want to see is the Apple pet collar. Using location services, and wifi or SMS messaging to tell you where Fifo and Muffin have trotted off to, and to beep them and tell them to come home for dinner...

(of course, the above makes no sense, as it's the product of my cat walking on the keyboard...)

 

[Decrepit]

Would you like something like that?

Personally, I think that would fill the group of people who want a 13" MacBook Pro (if the specs are there) and people like me. Who like the portability of a laptop while out, but love the feel of a mouse, keyboard and separate screen while at home.

Not even a little bit. That is the worst way to implement the very simple docking station. A docking station could work with any Mac notebook of any size, and then you could plug in an ACD 20, 23, 30" display. A BT or USB mouse, etc.

No, that would be extremely wasteful and has the potential of not working with the very next generation of notebooks. A docking station lets the consumer choose which products they pair their portable with.

Keep in mind that it is still Apple, who has relished in the All-In-One concept! Besides, who said anything about budget. If anything, the news report was saying that people should be prepared to pay out the wazoo for whatever is up 's sleve.

I do agree with you about the price. That is certainly true.

But if Apple really wanted to kick MSFT in the mouth, they could release a much less expensive computer than the Mini to get people to jump ship. They could buy Parallels or something and integrated it right into OS X 10.6 so that customers could use Office 2007 or whatever other Windows only application they want.

 

[macduke]

I think you guys aren't thinking outside the box enough . It wont just be an update to the MBP or the iMac or the iPhone. Think bigger . It wont be a new ipod or iphone update. think bigger again .

it will probably be something like:

iMarvin - your plastic pal who is fun to be with

Yikes. Well, I could see that working if it was an iMandy - your robot girlfriend* who is even more fun to be with. And who looks like Mandy Moore.


* Disclaimer: I have a real-life, breathing, human girlfriend.

 

[im_noahselby]

I have seen many people "request" a 12" model, but I can't see why? Not trying to be difficult here, but what is the allure of a 12" model? Is it the size, and the portability, or both? I just never have been a fan of the 12" models as working on them is a bear.

The thing is, not everyone wants to lug around a big 15" laptop. Judging by the popularity of the 12" PowerBook, it's surprising Apple hasn't added a smaller model to their MacBook Pro lineup. Even an 11" or 12" MacBook would please most of us.

 

[macduke]

I hope Apple releases a gaming console, and that they call it the iBox.

 

[GregA]

But i'm really getting sick of "we're very exited about the future" and "several more wonderful new products to launch in the coming months"

It would be nice if they could actually give a hint

The thing is, the average punter doesn't hear about this, they only find out the products as they're released. We crave news about future products, we jump on the news, squeeze every ounce of information out of it, and then wait for a release that may never come or turns out radically different (usually less interesting!) to what we'd thought.

So while I'm sick of not knowing too... we do it to ourselves

 

[MShock]

product transition can mean a lot of things. I bet this has something to due with software and not hardware. Obviously, Apple has some catching up to do... the new Centrino 2 Sony laptops are a prime example. Great design, blue-ray, LED displays, etc. On the hardware side, a transition to DDR 3 RAM may also cause some problems.

I think the transition will actually involve ZFS. They need to change so much of MAC OS X to use it, I wonder if software vendors will also need to change their products. ZFS, due to its backup and syncing capabilities, would also seem prime to tie products like the iPhone and iPod to the Mac platform. It works great on mobile devices and would provide excellent backup for all things mobile. The elimination of a windows market for a period of time would hurt sales during the "transition".

 

[Shot22]

The thing is, the average punter doesn't hear about this, they only find out the products as they're released. We crave news about future products, we jump on the news, squeeze every ounce of information out of it, and then wait for a release that may never come or turns out radically different (usually less interesting!) to what we'd thought.

So while I'm sick of not knowing too... we do it to ourselves

You're right. After all, companies have to be positive, regarding both the past and the future. That means that Apple is basically required to say something great about their upcoming products, even of they don't have details.

 

[MacGeek7]

I hope Apple releases a gaming console, and that they call it the iBox.

It even sounds better than their first try at gaming with "Pippin"

 

[MacPhilosopher]

What can Touch do?

After using Apple's Remote App on my iPhone to control iTunes, etc, I am wondering what Touch can offer as an input/interface device to control and input into Adobe Photoshop, Final Cut, Aperture, etc. It can then double as a stand alone tablet for mobile use. Those naysayers who doubt there is a market for a tablet would have to at least consider how being a dual use device makes for a more marketable product.

 

[Pippen Man]

It even sounds better than their first try at gaming with "Pippin"

Just for the record, my user name is named after that little bugger, but I decided to put an "e" instead of an "i". Why? Because everyone makes typos

 

[Bryan3089]

Nope. Some countries don't have Apple stores, and it doesn't help once the product is out of warranty. I can use my LCD on any computer I buy for 10 years if it will last that long.

All-in-ones are a bad idea for somebody on a budget. When one component failure downs the entire product permanently, it's no good. It's very wasteful to toss something that could be used with a different display.

Interesting point - Certainly an actual computer is different from a portable media player, but doesn't the iPod disprove your point?

The iPod is an all-in-one type product, but problems with one aspect of the device hasn't negatively affected sales. Isn't one of the keys reasons for investing in a Mac its endurance and longevity as a computer? I purchased my first Mac a year and a half ago -- a 17-inch white iMac -- and honestly foresee it functioning healthily for at least 5 more years... whereas my last two computers lasted maybe 2-3 years. And those things were slow as molasses.

I think huge problems with computers (especially with Mac computers) are rare enough that they would not put off those people who are on a budget. My mother makes around $25,000 a year, but decided that a computer is a very important investment -- she knew nothing about Macs and wouldn't go back on her decision if she had the choice!

 

[macduke]

The thing is, not everyone wants to lug around a big 15" laptop. Judging by the popularity of the 12" PowerBook, it's surprising Apple hasn't added a smaller model to their MacBook Pro lineup. Even an 11" or 12" MacBook would please most of us.

I thought I read that Intel's new montevina chipset allows for a REALLY tiny motherboard. Like only 5-6 inches wide. A 9-10 inch EEE killer would be great, priced about the same as the Mac Mini. Speaking of which, I bet that will also be updated soon too...possibly rebranded as a Mac Air. Think 5" square and only 0.75" thick. I hope they come out with something like that because my grandpa wants to buy a new computer and was asking me when they are going to update the mini, since I told him last fall that it should be updated in January. Damn thing is 162 days beyond its average for being updated. Obviously they are working on overhauling the design...probably waited for Montevina to complete it.

Current Mac Mini maxed out:

- 2.0ghz Intel C2D
- 2gb ram
- 160gb
- Superdrive
- GMA 950 graphics (ancient)
- Keyboard and mouse

Total: $1047

RIPOFF!

No wonder my grandpa thinks macs are so expensive...the mini has taken forever to update! If it had current hardware, then it wouldn't be that bad.

 

[babyj]

A big chart topping category would be to after the Nintendo Gameboy franchise. Use Apple's iPod manufacturing know-how to build a cheap sub $100 touch device with gaming controls. Use the entire Disney catalog to offset Miyamoto's magic. (Were there any Disney assets involved in the iPhone App Store's launch? Given Steve's connections)

The iPhone and iPod Touch seem to be doing pretty good in the hand held gaming market already, so I'm not sure a new dedicated gaming device would make sense. Maybe in the future when they've got more of the big game developers supporting the platform. You've also had Sony, Sega, Neo Geo, Nokia and others go after the Gameboy market and all have failed.

The Disney catalog is irrelevant. Its already heavily licensed for gamed on all platforms and besides, its the staff and Miyamato that are the difference rather than the franchises. The only way they would get that edge is by merging with Nintendo, which I don't think is that far fetched. In fact, a three way merger between Apple, Disney and Nintendo would be a match made in heaven - no overlap and they all perfectly complement each other. Not going to happen though.

 

[MacPhilosopher]

I think the transition will actually involve ZFS.

First, I had to look that one up. How about a link or explanation for those of us not versed in Sun/Solaris. Second, ZFS seems to be far from ready for prime time, so I doubt it could or should be integrated fully into the filesystem options in Leopard. Finally, it appears that Apple already has/does allow porting of ZFS in Leopard, albeit with serious limitations to its use. I guess my bigger question is why dream so small? Not that nearly infinite filesystems will not some day be of use, its just that only the smallest fraction of current users, and for that matter even users into the near future, will have any reason to make use of its capabilities. How many of us can even afford the physical drive space to make use of such a filesystem? Give it another shot and this time think of something you may actually need or use.

 

[SurfinDNA]

My money is on new macbooks/pros

A few key things to note:
A product transition (transition = change) will substantially affect margins.
Firstly, I believe we are talking about a significant change/upgrade to a current product (hence transition). Secondly, the transitioned product is most likely a computer as they are responsible for 60% of profits. Nextly, it would have to be a "top selling" computer; macbook/pro line should be selling in high volume with the back to school crowd and free ipod deal.

Thus, the first "conclusion" is: a significantly upgraded laptop line, with upgraded Mac Pros also a possibility.

Lastly, the decreased margins could be due to either a drop in price, an increase in costly hardware, or both. As Apple's business model tends to sell premium, high-priced products in low volume (rather than high volume cheap products) it is doubtful that they will drop the price. This is highlighted by their good profits last quarter (if people are buying their products, why drop the price). However, with the move to intel chips direct comparisons between Mac and PC hardware are transparent. The PC's are undercutting Apple's prices and delivering superior/equal hardware. People are more than happy to spend 1,200/2,500 on a macbook/pro, especially if they are getting ~1200/2500 worth of product. But now we are paying a premium price for inferior hardware.

I see Apple performing a significant technology upgrade on their laptop lines so that the premium price again gives premium hardware. Thus, they would still be making premium computers but will not leave a "umbrella" for price cutting by other manufactures.

 

[chickenninja]

Some competitor i think it was HP just came out with a large touch screen device. I would think apple spies would of seen this competitors product coming and started work on their own touch screen. but ya know iphone and ipod touch are touch screen UMPCs.

 

[omega21]

A few key things to note:
A product transition (transition = change) will substantially affect margins.
Firstly, I believe we are talking about a significant change/upgrade to a current product (hence transition). Secondly, the transitioned product is most likely a computer as they are responsible for 60% of profits. Nextly, it would have to be a "top selling" computer; macbook/pro line should be selling in high volume with the back to school crowd and free ipod deal.

Thus, the first "conclusion" is: a significantly upgraded laptop line, with upgraded Mac Pros also a possibility.

Lastly, the decreased margins could be due to either a drop in price, an increase in costly hardware, or both. As Apple's business model tends to sell premium, high-priced products in low volume (rather than high volume cheap products) it is doubtful that they will drop the price. This is highlighted by their good profits last quarter (if people are buying their products, why drop the price). However, with the move to intel chips direct comparisons between Mac and PC hardware are transparent. The PC's are undercutting Apple's prices and delivering superior/equal hardware. People are more than happy to spend 1,200/2,500 on a macbook/pro, especially if they are getting ~1200/2500 worth of product. But now we are paying a premium price for inferior hardware.

I see Apple performing a significant technology upgrade on their laptop lines so that the premium price again gives premium hardware. Thus, they would still be making premium computers but will not leave a "umbrella" for price cutting by other manufactures.

That makes lots of sense. What sort of changes do you actually see happening to the Macbook Pro? I personally still think that its too early for blue-ray.. And OS X doesn't need more than 2gb of ram (to start) or a (really) fast processor, so why include it?

 

[fleshman03]

Lastly, the decreased margins could be due to either a drop in price, an increase in costly hardware, or both. As Apple's business model tends to sell premium, high-priced products in low volume (rather than high volume cheap products) it is doubtful that they will drop the price. This is highlighted by their good profits last quarter (if people are buying their products, why drop the price). However, with the move to intel chips direct comparisons between Mac and PC hardware are transparent. The PC's are undercutting Apple's prices and delivering superior/equal hardware. People are more than happy to spend 1,200/2,500 on a macbook/pro, especially if they are getting ~1200/2500 worth of product. But now we are paying a premium price for inferior hardware.

I see Apple performing a significant technology upgrade on their laptop lines so that the premium price again gives premium hardware. Thus, they would still be making premium computers but will not leave a "umbrella" for price cutting by other manufactures.

The whole point of lowering the price is to get more volume.
If you are selling 1,000 widgets at $10 and it costs you $8 to make them, you are making a $2,000 profit.
Now think of this:
You are selling 10,000 widgets at $9 and it costs you $8 to make them, you are making a $10,000 profit.

The reason why you sold 9,000 more widgets is because the lower price made it accessible for more people.

Now factor in the sales of additional add-ons. Assuming those will remain the same price, you have a much large population of consumers to sell those too.

Back in Feb when the 2.4 base MBP came out, 2k was a reasonable (yet still expensive) price. They are most likely going to put the same level of high quality parts (todays equal), only sell it somewhat cheaper in hopes of gaining more volume and market share.

 

[GregA]

the decreased margins could be due to either a drop in price, an increase in costly hardware, or both.

Actually, if it's just a drop in price, then Apple wouldn't be saying they wanted to get a headstart on other competitors. For that they need something new (which might mean more expensive internals with some cool new feature)

ZFS <snip>
How many of us can even afford the physical drive space to make use of such a filesystem?

ZFS isn't just about larger drive capacity, that's just one of the side effects that's most easily explained. I personally don't understand enough about ZFS, I read up on it during the original rumours a year back.

People were saying things like "ZFS is to file systems what OSX is to DOS.". From memory, the greatest differences were in the ways it could
1) protect our data,
2) store to 2 local hard disks in parallel (like RAID, but easy, FAST, and cheap),
3) take snapshots of an active drive (like time machine does for backups) to get to data from any time.
4) combine 2 disks on different computers into one virtual drive
5) it looked like it worked very effectively as a remote disk drive and/or as a remote backup.

All that said ... much of that wouldn't be visible to your average user. And once it's written and working, it certainly doesn't result in a lower margin on Apple hardware!

 

[asouza]

another way to look at it....

Looking at it by the numbers:

$7.46 Billion this quarter. Using this quarters numbers, in order to impact the COG by 5% would equal $373M realized costs.

This quarter 11,011,000 ipods were sold for $1.678B in revenue. Simple average shows $152.39 per ipod sale. If the ipod line transitioned to a wireless line of mostly flash driven internet capable devices and touch devices (increased functionality) and each ipod price was lowered by 22% (an average of $34 dollars per unit), than 11,011,000 ipods sold at the lower average price of $119 would equal total ipod sales of $1.305B for a difference of $373B from today's ipod sales numbers. Apples recent large purchase of flash storage has yet to be accounted for, this could explain this large order, bring down the costs to allow for the 20% lower the price point or so per unit, and account for the 5% difference in the cost of goods, based on current ipod sales. Just a thought.

 

[fleshman03]

Looking at it by the numbers:

$7.46 Billion this quarter. Using this quarters numbers, in order to impact the COG by 5% would equal $373M realized costs.

This quarter 11,011,000 ipods were sold for $1.678B in revenue. Simple average shows $152.39 per ipod sale. If the ipod line transitioned to a wireless line of mostly flash driven internet capable devices and touch devices (increased functionality) and each ipod price was lowered by 22% (an average of $34 dollars per unit), than 11,011,000 ipods sold at the lower average price of $119 would equal total ipod sales of $1.305B for a difference of $373B from today's ipod sales numbers. Apples recent large purchase of flash storage has yet to be accounted for, this could explain this large order, bring down the costs to allow for the 20% lower the price point or so per unit, and account for the 5% difference in the cost of goods, based on current ipod sales. Just a thought.

MacroEcon 101 only coved nice, large, round numbers. I'm guessing things like that would have been covered in the Econ 102.

lol

 

[Balooba]

Touch, touch and touch

Here's my prediction for the Product Transition[tm]:
• All products gradually get the touch interface. This includes the MBP, MacBook, iMac, Apple Cinema Display. Who thinks Apple came up with Cocoa Touch simply to use it for their phones and iPods only?
• All laptops become tablet hybrids. It will be possible to close the lids in such a way that they face up. Input via external keyboard or through touch.
• This occurs without keeping non-touch version in the portfolio and without increasing the prices. Hence the warning on lower profit margins for Q4.
• No further product changes, apart from iSight on the new Touch Cinema Displays.

 

[MicahFreak82]

guys everything is getting updated just looks at the buyers guide everything except for the iphone duh is up for an update:
macbook air 2 - (if not in the next few months by macworld in January) core shutdown will be fixed 2 usb ports, 128gb hd...
updated macbook - with intel montevina white/black will match the iphone but aluminum i don't care
updated macbook pro's along with this maybe the tablet that is 10'' or the 12 macbook pro who knows what apple and steve jobs is thinking.
you know that mac mini's is getting an update along with the cinema displays.
ipods are definitely getting an update.
maybe not the imacs yet.
apple is really going to up its market share over the next 6 months so if you are planning on buying wait till atleast macworld in january. that is going to be the last major updates for a while. you don't want to buy one thing when a cooler thing comes out a few months later. my sugestion is to wait till january.