4 to 5 years from now, I think Apple maps would be pretty good. Google spent many years perfecting their maps. It's not like the early versions were that accurate.
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Apple Hiring Autonomous Vehicle Experts, Including Tesla Engineer Now Working on 'Special Projects'
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4 to 5 years from now, I think Apple maps would be pretty good. Google spent many years perfecting their maps. It's not like the early versions were that accurate.
Yeah for a car the colors need work... but silky smooth and very safe with that steel cage.
The plastic one?
Steel cage in a silky plastic, why not. Think no turtlewax... splash 'n' go!
I actually think there is a huge opportunity for Apple in transportation ... one that conventional car companies will be challenged to accomplish. I remember a VERY interesting presentation by Amory Lovins at a Hackers Conference in the early 90s (probably 25 years ago) in which he outlined a radical new approach to building cars - all electric, composite bodies, computer control - that requires just the skills that Apple is so good at - but is so fundamentally different than the metal bending of conventional auto companies that their transformation is incredibly difficult. My quick estimate of the total worldwide automobile market (~90M/vehicles per year at $10k/vehicle -> ~$1T/year in revenue) suggests that using the iPhone metric of a 10% share ... this is serious money even for Apple.
If we find that Amory is a secret consultant for Apple ... time to rock on.
If we find that Amory is a secret consultant for Apple ... time to rock on.
You're presuming everyone has to go through Tesla for car batteries which isn't the case. Apple has far more resources than Tesla and Panasonic combined and can build and/or invest in factories that will dwarf their output. Plus, it's public knowledge that Apple has been hiring battery experts so I don't see battery production as a problem. Building a car of the future that will meet everyone's lofty expectations OTOH....
As for investing in a company that's heavily in debt and will likely go up against Apple around the time they're finally expected to be profitable? I'm a huge Elon fan, but c'mon, that sounds more like financial suicide than an investment. I think Apple, now that their stock has dropped 20%, is a better place to park one's money... I can see it doubling in a couple of years so long as China doesn't completely implode.
That's pretty much what people said when they heard about the phone.
Also, if you design/build an electric vehicle right, it should actually last far longer and require a lot less maintenance than a traditional vehicle. I'd also say that 'traditional vehicles' have been moving in this direction, but are kind of stuck part-way. When traditional manufacturers start using code copyright laws to force 3rd party maintenance out of the picture (they are starting already), but haven't reached the level of reliability that companies like Tesla and Apple have achieved... it will probably be a transition similar to the Japanese/American thing all over again, with people flocking to these new electric cars in masses. (IMO, all the environmental stuff is more a boogyman stirring up an initial interest group who'll pay the start-up premium.)
I also saw an article a while back about aluminum based batteries that have about double the capacity of lithium-ion ones and less danger/downsides (i.e.: explosion potential, WAY quicker charge, easier to get materials, etc.). It was lab research in the article, but they said 5-10 years away. I'd expect Apple to head more in that direction.... and they are already experts at working with aluminum.
Imagine if you could extend the range of a Tesla to 500-600 miles, and charge from a 240v outlet in like an hour or a 'super-charger' in say 5 minutes.
Of course they have the money, that was never my point... spending billions when you have billions to spend is the easy bit. Making it back in an already struggling market, with enough margin to satisfy Apple is the hard bit!
Well no; more like it's pretty much what the competition said when Apple first turned out that candybar iTunes phone thing. But then came the iPhone. What they said then, well... can't say it in these forums!
btw Disney IS a pharmaceutical company when you think about it.
What for? The cost to develop and compete against Tesla will be one-tenth or one-twentieth the cost of buying Tesla.
They don't have to make it back at similar margins to the phones, unless they are being completely controlled by *some* of their shareholders. Whether, post-Jobs, they are or not, remains to be seen.
I estimated that Apple needs to sell about 4M 45K cars to match their current revenues from the Iphone alone. Considering profit margin would be significantly lower (but still not as low as the industry average), I'd expect 6M would give them about the same profit. That's a significant chunk of the high end market, probably about 30-35; I think expecting that within a decade is way too optimistic.
But, Apple doesn't need to sell that much to be a success. If they sold 2-3M cars a year within 8 years, that's be a fantastic success and the fastest launch of car brand ever. Thats around 90-130B in revenue, nothing to sneeze at even for Apple.
Of course, other high end companies would feel the pain from this; what's new
.Apple doesn't liked to create tech for other companies, they're not a supplier; there is little profit in that. Carplay is a stopgap.
Apple is a design and manufacturing company with the most complex and large supply chain in the world. If anyone can handle designing a car and then manage it's manufacturing supply chain, they can. There exist huge parts/contract manufacturers like Magna these days that can handle the boring assembly and machining of standard parts. All they have to do is hire the engineers to design it/test it.
I estimated that Apple needs to sell about 4M 45K cars to match their current revenues from the Iphone alone. Considering profit margin would be significantly lower (but still not as low as the industry average), I'd expect 6M would give them about the same profit. That's a significant chunk of the high end market, probably about 30-35; I think expecting that within a decade is way too optimistic.
But, Apple doesn't need to sell that much to be a success. If they sold 2-3M cars a year within 8 years, that's be a fantastic success and the fastest launch of car brand ever. Thats around 90-130B in revenue, nothing to sneeze at even for Apple.
Of course, other high end companies would feel the pain from this; what's new
Also, consider that it might not be *just* about profit for them. I'm sure a lot of Apple folk are into the flavor of environmentalism so common in the Bay area (so, that's a personal motivator), and things Apple does like this would be a huge brand-strengthening move in the 'green' world. And, it would show Apple doesn't just do computers in a huge way (which would help the Wall Street goofs).
And, for crying out loud - they don't need to make iPhone profit margins on everything or capture some huge percentage of a particular market to be successful! They made the Apple Watch, didn't they?
Well, and not everyone is going to have an Apple Car, so Carplay is still relevant.
Apple maps is pretty good now in most places. In China, where a good chunk of the world's population resides, it already blows away Google maps.
4-5 years from now, I expect Apple Maps to at least reach parity with Google maps and maybe even best it in some ways.
By then, it's reasonable to expect Apple to have street view, flyover and transit in most cities, and their street level mapping will give them far more intelligent data. I also expect some level of indoor mapping by then as well and possibly some AR capabilities.
If this does become a reality, it won't be for a while. In talking decade(s) at the very least. We would have to see entirely new laws for automobiles be written for a product like this to even become legal.
In the shoot term I would be a lot more excited if Apple could gain some battery knowledge from this guy. Supposedly tesla has moved forward in that field more than anyone else in the time they've been around (in terms of actually getting a product to the market). Battery has always been the Achilles heel of smartphones.
In the shoot term I would be a lot more excited if Apple could gain some battery knowledge from this guy. Supposedly tesla has moved forward in that field more than anyone else in the time they've been around (in terms of actually getting a product to the market). Battery has always been the Achilles heel of smartphones.
Hiring has to start somewhere, right? You're absolutely right though, and I think we will see more evidence of hiring in these specific fields if Apple is serious. But not everyone is for hire at any given moment especially with non compete clauses in contracts. So you hire who you can when you can.
Not meant to be argumentative here, but how did you conclude that Apple maps blows away google maps in China? I ask because I subscribe to quite a few tech channels and this is thebfirstnim hearing of Apple maps blowing Google away anywhere.
As much as Google keeps adding to their maps, I don't see apple taking over in that field any time soon. As an example, you can now search in google maps how much solar panels are likely to save you per year in select markets. While that's likely not on most people's radar right now, it's one of those things I doubt they eve even discussed at Apple (ok I don't really know what they discuss at Apple but you get the point).
Everything you mention in five years time for apple, Google already has. Unless Google just rests in their laurels and decides not to improve their maps while apple continues to improve theirs, I just don't see what you see.
That's assuming it will be autonomous.... to which I'd add, hopefully never! But, what if Apple is just building an electric car with a bunch of assistive technologies? (And all this autonomous stuff is just 'futurist' assumptions.)
This is a good point. I don't see Apple having an interest in just simply electric cars, but that's just my personal opinion. Electric cars aren't a new working concept. Autonomous cars effectively are. Why Apple would take this long to enter the electric market is beyond me. But they may be thinking of things here that you or I haven't yet. So there's that.