I have a hard time imagining the iPad will be as popular at launch as the iPhone.
We don't even know that they will have a 'launch' for this product. It could just show up.
Actually I doubt that. I think the wi-fi will have a big day, lots of workshops and such. the 3g will be the one that slips in. Since I think fewer folks will jump for it. they already have an iphone etc, why spend the extra money on something they aren't likely to ever turn on.
as for demand, I can see it. From a few fronts.
1. keeping the kids happy. trust me they would much rather watch Up on a bigger screen. probably better for their eyes also
2. mass transit/road warrior types, same eyes thing applies.
3. ebooks/textbooks/emags
and so on.
I can also see hospitals buying a nice stack of these. Not so much for the doctors but for the patients. What better way to keep a kid calm and quiet during a chemo treatment or dialysis than handing them an ipad with some games on it or a movie to watch. Once the apps and central systems get better the docs and nurses will likely start using them as well.
My own boss is going to grab a couple of ipads to test on set since using a laptop to quickly check script pages, etc isn't so quick and easy. He loves the notion that it can be in a bag on his hip (or rather mine as his scud) no matter where we are. No more running back to video village where the computer is propped up on the equipment cart. quicker, easier, no risk of someone knocking the computer off the cart and no chance of someone getting curious when they shouldn't or worse, greedy and stealing the computer. If the battery life pans out is the only real question for him.
My guess for the free gift: Promo codes/gift card for FREE iWORK APPS. Minimal hard costs, high value, increases enjoyment of product on day 1.
and promotes their software. get them into it on the ipad and it's easier to tell it to them for the computer. Win.
it's tricky with these gifts cause in some states if the value is over a certain mark you have to pay taxes (you being both the company and the receiver) so they will want to stay under that rule. So folks should not expect too much.
other contenders
1. t-shirts and/or hats.
2. free ipad case, perhaps with the camera kit and/or headphones (all apple so cheap for them)
3. free accessory pack put together by one or more 3rd party folks with perhaps a case, a screen film, a stylus. maybe even a little hip bag. (given to them for this purpose as free marketing for said companies. no cost to apple)
4. itunes gift card, likely not more than $25, $50 max. due to those tax issues
5. preselected app sampler a kin to the music ones they occasionally do. As it is not a 'cash equivalent' they can afford tax thing.
6. preselected book sampler (perhaps even just first chapters)
7. preselected mixed sampler. small video, couple of songs, some book chapters, etc
The iPhone has much too small of a screen for many text heavy applications. The day I started writing iPhone apps, I was practically screaming, "I need a bigger screen for this! Why don't they make this into some kind of notepad device?"
try reading script pages in dim light on an iphone. not pretty, even with them blown up. I'd want the lowest ipad for the screen just for that.
Off subject: I think Apple should have a midnight release.
logistical nightmare for the stores. they'd have to assume it would be a holiday sitch so they aren't understaffed. That also restricts staff for standard business hours as those folks can't close day one or open day two under most state laws do to turn around rules. And even if you could open day one, overnight and then close day two any of them, there's rules about OT, split shift pay etc.
When they have a major product release they typically close all training, and non related workshops and all bar repairs. they might even like one guy at the bar in case someone walks in with a phone emergency but you can't book. And most folks know this will all happen as soon as they hear the release date. so they know not to even come near the store unless you want the hot item cause no one is around for anything else.
Ask all the 27" iMac people who suffered for months with problems before Apple even admitted a problem existed.
Which wasn't as many folks as the blogs want it to seem. and even less of them had multiple issues and bad machines. My employer, which does hard core animation and fx work, has bought over 100 spread throughout the release weeks and we had only a couple of problems, one of which was fixed by the firmware updates, the other by a display replacement. And we know lots of folks that had no problems.
if the issue had been that extreme the units would have been recalled before the government got involved and forced it.