I hear that argument over and over again, but I just don't buy it. The television market is HUGE, and every television manufacturer updates their line every year. And just because that CRT in your basement is still humming after 20 years doesn't mean your new LCD will; the lifespans on these things are 5-10 years, at best. You might be in the market for a new TV a lot sooner than you think.
If yo look at the data, TV's are kept more than 2x as long as laptops (about 10 years longer for most people) - that's a lot longer to keep an all - in - one TV capable of doing all the latest things. If a company wants to shorten that lifespan, I think it will be hard pressed to do so if it is at the the very premium edge of the consumer market (I'll live videophiles out because they are a very different market). An expensive TV is not, for most people, an impulse buy - and having to replace it much more often to keep watching the latest programing will not be an easy thing to convince them to do. A $600 TV - probably - $1600 - not so easy.
It's not a question of simply keeping things that hum but being able to stay current without a large investment - my ancient TV still works with a cable box and gets everything but the HD channels. As a result, it is still a viable product even though it is 10 years old. New TVs, even if they are still "old" by electronic standards, will do HD so all it takes to get everything is a signal; and if you use say Tivo an new box for a hundred or so dollars. That is a lot more easy to sell than a new, expensive TV.
Besides, do you replace your laptop every two years? Has that stopped Apple from updating all its Macs every six months?
Yes, I do. In PC's increasing software demands often drive hardware updates.
No, all the fanboys (myself included) won't be able to run out and buy the latest and greatest TV from Apple on the day its released as though it were an iPad, but that doesn't mean the market isn't lucrative for the company. Of course the margins are thin, but do you really think they're making a killing on the current AppleTV?
Apple, in general, has never settled for low margins on their high end products. Some, such as AppleTV, are a way to extend Apple's content reach into the entertainment area; so lower margins are ok because content sales make up for it.
The real issue is I'm not sure Apple can maintain a competitive advantage in a TV market - all the big players are also very good a sourcing, design, and retailing - they won't go easy into the night.
Moreover, I think Apple stands a much better chance of making splash with a TV as opposed to a revision of the current AppleTV. Yeah, we would love the idea of a $99 box that plugs into our current TV and fulfills our wildest techie wet dreams. But we're techies. To Joe Average, its another box on top of his current home theater kludge. AppleTV has been around for almost 5 years and hasn't made any mainstream impact; even Steve called it "a hobby." GoogleTV is a flop, because nobody wants a band aid on top of their cable box.
AppleTV hasn't really brought anything to the table beyond the ability to stream content form another Mac or network drive and purchase some content. Now, if Apple actually made the AppelTV into a cool device...
But if Apple came out with a sleek-looking TV that got rid of all the clunky remotes, all the space-hogging peripherals, and maybe even the need for cable/satellite altogether? All you have to do is plug it in and wirelessly stream the audio to your AirPlay-equipped receiver? Now that would get people's attention.
Your cable/satellite comment hit on the real issue - how will Apple get content providers to go along with a new model? They are in it for money, and won't alienate their big revenue streams (cable/Satellite) just to play with Apple. Given that some content providers are already owned by cable companies make them even less likely to want to help apple destroy their business model and turn them into a dumb pipe provider.
Even if such a model as you propose takes off - do you think the other manufacturers won't line up to develop models that deliver content and work out deals with content providers. the name of the game is eyeballs and Apple won't deliver as many as the others combined so the real $$ will be in the other players *if* cable/satellite is killed.
We all thought the iPad was stupid because we already had laptops. We all thought the iPhone was stupid we already had phones and iPods. We all thought the iPod was stupid because we had CDs. But look what's happened...
True - Apple is very good a creating a new market paradigm. But if you look at each example they came in at a compelling price point that allowed impulse buying and, especially for the iPad, Apple had a compelling apple controlled content delivery system with enough content to make it a compelling product.
If Apple comes out with another box, it'll hit the market with a thud. If they come out with a "revolutionary" TV, it'll be the biggest thing since color.
Don't count out an apple box - what really matters is software and user experience, not the hardware you watch. Which is why I find it interesting
Appel put a software, not a hardware, guy in charge.
Sure, Apple could come out with an Apple TV; but I think it will be a lot harder for them to demonstrate Schumpeter's creative destruction in that market than in others because of price, use patterns, and where the value (read money) lies in the value chain.
I'd love for Apple to come out with a TV that was so cool and useful that I would wait in line for one. I just think it will be a very tough thing for them to do and starting with a really cool box that gets them into user's homes and creates a large enough market to be interesting to content providers is a more logical strategy.
would charge through the roof for it. Plus, I bet they'll do a new one every year cycle and really people can't by new TV's every year. Plus some flat screens can be had at some great prices! I'm mixed on this....
Ever since these rumors began I've questioned what benefit selling televisions could provide to Apple or its customers. All the more as HDTVs are rapidly becoming a commodity item. But if Apple is envisioning a paradigm shift in the industry and viewer experience, then perhaps an exciting development.
