My take on the future of our "TV" experience as seen by Steve Jobs
My take on the Apple TV concept.
A lot of people are making assumptions, but based on what I would like to change my TV experience I think Steve cracked the following code.
First of all, will it be an actual Television or will it be the appleTV box as we currently know it.
I think it could actually be both.
Both solutions have their pros and cons.
Both picked up on the IOS user experience, mix airplay, Siri, ... the future TV.
Pro for current appleTV.
Cheap to make
Can get a large penetration in the household
People can keep there existing set, only need to upgrade every 2 to 3 years to a new model.
Contra
Not complete integration of the system: aka still needing to explain to average user how to change to the correct channel, no control over the TV to which it is hooked. Still need a remote to operate the tv set.
If wanting to control the total content package like the IOS Walled Garden, it still lives besides other content deliveries: Blueray, DVD player, HD-DVD player, XBOX and other game console channels, other TV Manufacturers content,
Although if this succeed blue ray is passé as well, forget physical content carriers. Apple is long thru with that concept. Aka why no bluray on macs, no flash media on iPhone, iPad unless thru a control mechanism.
Pro for complete TV set
Apple has control over the total concept: content wise, application wise
Best integration of hardware and software.
Can limit what can be connected and what not: e.g. no HDMI any more?
With siri can probably do away with the complete remote thing, or just a tiny puck to activate it, to prevent the 3 kids yelling, play (choose one of the current series, tv channels kids like).
Contra
Expensive, apple fans will probably quickly follow the concept and since it is apple doing this will get a great experience. General users: average joe, will not shell out for a new TV, when their current one, is adequate at their current usage terms.
Since they do not know the user experience, could care less. So in the end a slow start for apple, with less leverage against content deliverers.
What about upgrading: people keeps TVs for at least 6 years, some a lot more. How easy will it be to upgrade? Have a current appleTV box, fitted in a removable concept. That could be easily switched for a newer version or will it be a two part concept.
AKA TV and separate break out box to provide all in and output, with one HDMI cable to the tv. Then why make a TV in the first place.
If apple limits the input and output connections (e.g. HDMI) will people adopt to it if they cannot hookup their DVD or Bluray player, no XBOX 360, WII or PS3?
In the end if I was Apple I would go for the current appleTV, but gradually phase in a complete set, and at generation 2 or 3?, have an all in system with a replaceable appleTV inside ready for an upgrade when needed, and without HDMI inputs. At that time, gaming on the appleTV will become mainstream and will their be less need for an XBOX360 or PS3. But always keep it as a separate option for cheap, and have the total TV at a premium price. It will sell, no doubt about that, it is after all Apple.
The concept of a replaceable appleTV box would be the best.
Apple could provide some different Screen sizes: from 27" to 60+", and buy it separately or together with your appleTV replaceable box. I'm sure apple can make an esthetically please TV with this. It would also need a hard drive to store your own content, and the TV becomes your iTunes server?
A major change to our TV experience will be off course in the SIRI department.
A note: people currently complaining that it is not for iPAD or iPhone 4 available, I'm of the opinion that it is still in beta testing with only iPhone 4S users, keeping the experience at their end, more manageable, when SIRI is deemed ready for total rollout, all IOS5 users will get the possibility to use SIRI, after all, the major work is done at the server end and not on the device.
Another change lies in the fact, that TV will become the next iPAD, just another consumption device in the total IOS/iTunes store Concept, with the ease of switching devices when you want too. Go from your TV to your iPad in bed, to your iPhone/iPad when away.
This all curtesy of iCloud, and wireless syncing of your preferred content.
Your media will start to live in the cloud a lot more. Probably even ad your own iMac at home in the mix as content provide for your own older still on DVD stuff, which you convert yourself, now allowed by the content producers, made easy since apple will make a deal to have a iMovies/iSeries Match for a low price.
The big concept change is at the content side, as it was done with music, Video is next.
We are already changing to a more on demand system. Apple is probably right now doing a lot of negotiations with content deliverers: current TV channels, but also Movie Houses, series producers,
It will become more in the line of:
In the beginning subscribe to TV channels of your own choice from all over the world, and a such make up your own (mix of) channel(s). Who needs 1000 channels, when you can make your own channel.
Also on offer as right now: buying Movies or series.
As apple likes control over the price: a subscription to a tv channel will come at 4 price points, maybe more maybe less.
Free, Bronze, Silver and Gold.
Free channels are probably those channels who are currently free to air on satellite or owned by the Public broadcasting entities of a country: news and country specific content. Recording/Reviewing options depending on the channel operators choice.
Bronze channels will be the commercial channels as we know it: at a fairly low price but sponsored by commercials (maybe in control by apple itself and if done properly finally targeted at you, with things your are interested in and not for tampons if you are a single guy,
). Again recording/rewatching maybe possible or not, but if so with updated commercials!
Silver channels will be adfree, and have the ability to "record" content being aired at that moment or see what was aired in the past (maybe with a time limit of a month for adfree viewing?).
Gold channels will of course also be adfree, and being a open gate to all the content produced or delivered by that channel. Thus no longer a need to record, but just watch what you want when you want, or immediately when made available. So if you want you can watch a complete serie in one go or at least up to the point that it has been aired.
Add your own ideas at the appropriate level.
At a later stage (this will go more slowly, and will result in some revolting by some channel companies):
You will probably be able to directly subscribe to the content itself: series, movies from specific movie companies, movies in a certain theme setting like SciFi, historical fiction, older series,
Mix and match as you see fit! Content à la carte.
How will people get to know your content?
At the moment people get to know new content because it is aired on their current channels. And a lot of people start watching because of recommendations.
Like Facebook is currently the social hub, a revised Ping will be the social hub for apple. People will be able to leave recommendations for their favorite stuff, things to watch.
A good thing about this is that we probably will no longer have to deal with all the social retarted voyeuristic shows all the time on the air now, only those interested in that can subscribe to such channels, no more endless reruns.
If all goes well, content will become tailored to what the user really is interested in. And specifically cater to our wishes.
Also self publishing will probably become more mainstream. ala make your own tv for those interested.
Image some of the following:
Someone who is a great cook, be it a known name like Jamie Oliver or a no name. Armed with iMac, iPhone or iPad you can making your own cooking show.
Thanks to face time it will become interactive content: like be able to ask questions in real time for those watching the show as it is made in real time. Other interested people can (re)watch at a later date. If subscribe to that channel you can easily ask questions to the makers for more information or for new recipes to be shown.
Another interesting phenomenon is show like Dr. Phil. People can "visit" a shrink, self help group,
. thru FaceTime from within their own living room. You become part of the audience.
TV will become more interactive, you will be able to chat with friends (with picture in picture) while you are watching something on your tv.
I wonder if they will allow porn, because it seems a new avenue for the current websites. If Apple is smart they will allow it, it will only benefit the quicker adoption of the whole concept. Don't forget Sex sells best. It drove VHS, DVD and internet adoption rate much quicker that it would have been otherwise.
Just make sure that SIRI can properly identify the user. IOS already has parental controls, so just add porn already, I bet the iTunes store will become a gold mine.
In the end: TV as we know it will be more or less dead. We really will be able to choose what we want, when we want and how we want it.
Content will be subscription based and no longer owned.
Various mixes can be made available: a user subscribing to what he/she wants
To consume whatever you want, what you can find in the iTunes store for a fixed price per user. And Apple deals with the copyright owner of what you consume, be it music, books, magazines, movies, TV channels, series,
and provide them with their share of the subscription money. After all it is the best feedback that producers can get, if it is bought it has future, if not, cancel the production of that show or series.
ITunes will become the all encompassing digital content store based on subscription.
Forget spottily, forget Videostores, forget youtube, forget Facebook. It is all in the past.
Apple will deliver all what you need: and at the right price it will hit us like a bomb.
In the end The Apple TV experience will become the Apple Experience: content, social life, communication, it will all be done by Apple over the internet. iMessage, FaceTime and Ping for the social Hub, the iTunes Store for the content.
Why Apple: because they are the only ones large enough to pull such a stunt. It will takes us some years, maybe even a few decades, but that is the future and it will not be stopped.
I probably need to converting some cash in Apple stock.
Cavelion
would charge through the roof for it. Plus, I bet they'll do a new one every year cycle and really people can't by new TV's every year. Plus some flat screens can be had at some great prices! I'm mixed on this....
