Apple Might Be Having Its Windows Vista Moment, Says Analyst

[HadrianQ]

Called it! Between the stale ideas from Tim Cook and forcing AI en********ation into MacOS, its pretty obvious how this is going down.

I expect the next version to have AI so wrenched into monitoring user actions (so it can repeat them), that they totally for get to do anything new for the humans that use it.

 

[Leachb31]

Apple hasn't been innovative since Steve Jobs died. Instead, they have gone full reject with things like the notch, removing valuable ports, etc... Apple thinks they're innovative by constantly doing things nobody else has done, when the truth is that nobody else is that stupid to do such things. Steve Jobs must be rolling in his grave seeing the kind of garbage Cook has been sending out the door. And no, the valuation of the company since Jobs died is just from the momentum and legacy that Jobs left behind.

 

[ghanwani]

Where Apple is firing on all cylinders is in the department of financial engineering. All else is floundering. At some point there will be nothing left to financialize. Then when Tim Cook steps down, the whole thing will unravel.

 

[nistromo]

People say this every year.
Equally MS is having a Snow Leopard year 🤣

 

[rp2011]

And not only that. Instead of aiming up with something of consequence like going after Nvidia with their amazing silicon, they shoot down with dumb and failed Android gimmicks like foldable screens.

What's on their future development schedule? Are they just spinning their wheels? or worse, listening to clueless Wall Street "analysts" and their FUD? This is the point where they need someone like Jobs, someone with a passion.
It's VERY EASY to take a profitable company and tank it. Just sit back, coast, listen to marketing, listen to Wall Street FUD, and coast full speed to the boneyard of once-great companies.

 

[CarAnalogy]

I don't think you guys remember just how bad Vista was. But the arrogance is similar.

So far Apple has been a lot more accepting of mediocrity, and definitely have a serious problem with admitting that anything they do has any flaws whatsoever. But they haven't yet dropped the bomb on the world that was Windows Vista.

Siri has been Vista since it was released, but nobody ever cared until recently.

Now, this new OS redesign does have me worried because that would exactly be their Vista moment. If they release a broken OS with shiny new chrome that removes and changes useful features that have been there forever and breaks a lot of software and runs horribly no matter what hardware it's on, then we have a real problem.

 

[turbineseaplane]

Now, this new OS redesign does have me worried because that would exactly be their Vista moment. If they release a broken OS with shiny new chrome that removes and changes useful features that have been there forever and breaks a lot of software and runs horribly no matter what hardware it's on, then we have a real problem.

I'm really concerned about it

The whole think reeks of just rearranging the deck chairs

 

[CarAnalogy]

I think to call this Apple's Vista moment is an exaggeration, and doesn't actually capture Microsoft's ongoing pattern of shipping bad versions of Windows: Windows ME (bad), Windows XP (good), Windows Vista (bad), Windows 7 (good), Windows 8 (bad), Windows 10 (good), Windows 11 (bad-ish)... You get the idea. The Vision Pro, while expensive and shipping in low volume, is a polished experience. The misstep with Siri 2 is showing a mockup rather than a demo, and I think that's a byproduct of moving to pre-recorded product announcements. It's easy to CGI things in a pre-recorded video rather than demo the hard work put into a product - having the live demo is a forcing function to show off near-complete products (sans AirPower, but we knew that was a concept up-front).

Windows 11 is bad. Just plain bad the same way Vista was. Vista had a lot of under the hood improvements that are still there. But the interface was awful and took away useful features or made them much worse for no reason. And the real purpose of its release was not because the world needed it, but because they needed to release something to drive sales / overreact to a perceived threat. And of course it was released half baked and mostly fixed over the next several years.

Just like Windows 8. Just like Windows 11.

 

[sandman404]

Apple has not pushed the boundaries of innovation in any meaningful way. One look at iTunes, the flagship software to manage music, phones, etc. (if you are not using iCloud) has never been consumer friendly. It was utilitarian at best. People asked for friendly features like being able to manage their library (find doubles, clean up pictures, etc.) that were never implemented. Realistically, they should have come up with separate apps but I digress.

Organizationally they are ideologically bound to their methods and have been for years. I interviewed a number of years back and they were not at all interested in innovation within their own teams unless it was married to their way of doing things. Such is the way most large companies (and even smaller ones) run. Apple could split and potentially innovate, but that means letting go of control and allowing things to move forward independent (each platform or product stack on its own). Their ecosystem is unwieldy and suffers for it. Their price point is in the luxury category and that serves their faithful well. I cannot knock the older hardware - I had a laptop for many years and gave it away too soon. Their hardware is good now for the most part. The lifecycle of the products is in the mature phase so innovation isn’t a large factor anymore. So one cannot necessarily blame them for not innovating.

Thing is, hardware is somewhat ubiquitous these days. If they had put their energy into their software side as well, there is a good chance that they could have had both their closed system (luxury gatekept) and an open source or lower tier system that worked on other hardware. That partnership would have been interesting to see!

Going forward, I still think they could change for the better, but they are too connected to steer the ship at this point. Innovative works are happening faster and faster. AI tool integration is shortcutting workflows. Their ecosystem isn’t prepared for that (on the surface at least). I wish them luck, but I think other vendors are going to provide features that everyday people want and need (such as cheap and effective crypto decentralized payment system, community focused communication and management apps (decentralized voting, community management, etc.), and other opportunities. Challenges and opportunities abound…

 

[jfreedle2]

As did I and it still had major issues. It wasn't as bad as ME, but that is a LOW bar. And it was a resource hog.

I also never had a problem with Windows Millennium Edition either.

 

[Siliconguy]

I read the article and Evans is right. In fact thinking back on it (and I am that old);

Vision Pro = Lisa. An idea that the hardware simply wasn't able to support. For that matter, the Original Mac wasn't able to deliver either limited as it was by the 128 KB of RAM. The Mac Plus was almost there, and the SE finally got everything in order.

Worse though, Siri = Apple ///. A badly flawed product that never recovered even after Apple fixed it.

So how does Apple recover from the Siri debacle? A public apology would be a good place to start. Then a freeze on new features until they actually work? Trickle them out one at a time or wait until the entire suite of AI features is ready? I'm glad I don't have to make that call. What a mess.

 

[jfreedle2]

Apple has not pushed the boundaries of innovation in any meaningful way. One look at iTunes, the flagship software to manage music, phones, etc. (if you are not using iCloud) has never been consumer friendly. It was utilitarian at best. People asked for friendly features like being able to manage their library (find doubles, clean up pictures, etc.) that were never implemented. Realistically, they should have come up with separate apps but I digress.

Organizationally they are ideologically bound to their methods and have been for years. I interviewed a number of years back and they were not at all interested in innovation within their own teams unless it was married to their way of doing things. Such is the way most large companies (and even smaller ones) run. Apple could split and potentially innovate, but that means letting go of control and allowing things to move forward independent (each platform or product stack on its own). Their ecosystem is unwieldy and suffers for it. Their price point is in the luxury category and that serves their faithful well. I cannot knock the older hardware - I had a laptop for many years and gave it away too soon. Their hardware is good now for the most part. The lifecycle of the products is in the mature phase so innovation isn’t a large factor anymore. So one cannot necessarily blame them for not innovating.

Thing is, hardware is somewhat ubiquitous these days. If they had put their energy into their software side as well, there is a good chance that they could have had both their closed system (luxury gatekept) and an open source or lower tier system that worked on other hardware. That partnership would have been interesting to see!

Going forward, I still think they could change for the better, but they are too connected to steer the ship at this point. Innovative works are happening faster and faster. AI tool integration is shortcutting workflows. Their ecosystem isn’t prepared for that (on the surface at least). I wish them luck, but I think other vendors are going to provide features that everyday people want and need (such as cheap and effective crypto decentralized payment system, community focused communication and management apps (decentralized voting, community management, etc.), and other opportunities. Challenges and opportunities abound…

I know people have complained about iTunes, but as someone who focuses on user experience, I have never seen any issues with iTunes in the past. Of course it has been out of production with the exception of a Windows version for quite some time. Apple did separate out the different functions years ago and finally replaced iTunes on Windows this past year. It is ironic about innovation, it is totally dependent on the opinions of the people viewing that innovation. Faster and faster results in more garbage being produced because you are not ensuring quality.

 

[danbuter]

Stop releasing a new version of MacOS every single year. It's not necessary, and often adds in bugs.

 

[bluespark]

Add to this the fact that most users hated the new Photos app and WatchOS 10. Even "little" things like the terrible FineWoven watch bands and iPhone cases show how far this company has drifted from what it once was.

 

[jfreedle2]

I read the article and Evans is right. In fact thinking back on it (and I am that old);

Vision Pro = Lisa. An idea that the hardware simply wasn't able to support. For that matter, the Original Mac wasn't able to deliver either limited as it was by the 128 KB of RAM. The Mac Plus was almost there, and the SE finally got everything in order.

Worse though, Siri = Apple ///. A badly flawed product that never recovered even after Apple fixed it.

So how does Apple recover from the Siri debacle? A public apology would be a good place to start. Then a freeze on new features until they actually work? Trickle them out one at a time or wait until the entire suite of AI features is ready? I'm glad I don't have to make that call. What a mess.

I do not think that it is that bad a place. Siri works well and I would use it before using the GenAI that makes up stories about parents killing their children.

 

[jfreedle2]

Add to this the fact that most users hated the new Photos app and WatchOS 10. Even "little" things like the terrible FineWoven watch bands and iPhone cases show how far this company has drifted from what it once was.

I would not say most users, just most vocal users that were also technology "journalists". I was fine with the FineWoven case on my iPhone, feels like the leather one that it replaced.

 

[xiJulian_]

They need to go back to live in-person events and demo things when they’re actually done.

 

[Otwer22]

Certainly on the software side of things there is a problem with execution and innovation. On the hardware side they are doing a very good job of coming up with industry leading technologies with their CPU’s the best around.

 

[Jashar7]

Is Apple experiencing a "Vista-like drift into systemically poor execution?"

That was a question posed by well-known technology analyst Benedict Evans, in a recent blog post covering Apple's innovation and execution, or seemingly lack thereof as of late. He is referring to Microsoft's Windows Vista operating system, which was widely criticized when it launched in 2007 due to software bugs, performance issues, frequent warning dialogs, polarizing design changes, and several other problems.

Evans said Apple stumbled with the Vision Pro headset, which he believes was not ready to launch. Then, it previewed personalized Siri features at WWDC last year that were merely conceptual, and are now delayed.

"This is a concern," said Evans.

His thoughts on the Vision Pro:He said the personalized Siri delay is a "mirror image" of the Vision Pro situation:All of this led to his Vista-like comment:Nevertheless, Evans acknowledged that critics have been claiming that Apple is no longer innovative since at least the 1980s, and that the company has historically continued to deliver more innovative and category-defining products over the years. Still, he said he is left wondering if that Apple still exists today.

Evans' full blog post, highlighted by Techmeme today, is worth a read.

Article Link: Apple Might Be Having Its Windows Vista Moment, Says Analyst

Honestly iOS has been messy for a while now I mean how worse can it get so i guess I’ll prefer iOS 19 to be a massive change so hopefully Apple then by iOS 20 takes a snow-leopard year by focusing on performance improvements and bug fixes.

 

[Siliconguy]

I am running it perfectly fine on 8gb macbook pro m3

None of the M chips are slow processors. How does Sequoia run on the low end i3 2018 Mac mini?

I tried using OCLP to run Sonoma on a 2.8 Ghz 2014 Mac mini, that was a dog. Ventura was better but crash happy for what I wanted it to do (no Metal 3?). The mini runs the current Linux Mint Cinnamon just fine.

Speaking of bloat I would love to delete several of the 'immutable' apps that come standard, they just clutter up the Applications menu. What use is FaceTime or Photo Booth on a mini with no camera? I never listen to podcasts, that app can go, etc, etc.

 

[Dr McKay]

More Vista bashing. I honestly didn’t think Vista was all that bad, and it was a necessary departure from XP by improving driver models (which manufacturers were slow to support or never supported) and by pushing developers away from bad programming practices (UAC). By the time proper support arrived, so did Windows 7, which was a very popular and successful OS. Basically, Vista is what got us Windows 7.

Windows 11 is honestly more of the mess, especially out of the gate, with unnecessary hardware restrictions, poor featuresets at launch, and just an overall bugginess that makes for a frustrating experience. While it has improved, it has been reported that a recent security update accidentally removed Copilot.

Yeah, buggy drivers caused by OEMs refusing to update them for Vista did not play well with Vistas new driver model, but it meant a driver crash was way less likely to bring down the entire system with it like XP and prior drivers would. Running it on a system that actually met the recommended requirements also helped massively.

Windows 7 was just Vista SP2 with a new theme.

 

[Odan]

I see a trend, especially with products like VP which give a very Zune vibe... but being a user of both windows 11 and Mac OS, Apple still has some way to go to reach the MS level of mediocrity. Tim needs to go sooner rather than later. Great products require bold and uncompromising leaders like Steve Jobs.

 

[KSB]

Wouldn’t mind the next OS version being optimisation focused instead of feature rich. Apple has done it before and time is for it yet again.

In regards to Apple never shipping a “demo” experience, I would say the Apple TV was called hobby project for years, until it matured into what it is. So I see the vision experience as the same, touching ground and seeing where it goes, like the Apple Watch did from 1 gen throughout the generations

 

[btrach144]

This is hilarious with the news today that the lead for Vision Pro has now taken over Siri 2.

Apple's biggest product flop/worst selling product in recent history is now the lead for Apple's second biggest product flop.

Why not bring in the lead engineers for AirPower?

 

[Siliconguy]

After Vista, W7 and W10 was received very well from the users community.
While... is it true there's somebody considering Snow Leopard (2009) the best macOS version ever?

In terms of stability, yes. I have it running on a 2006 mini with a 32 bit only processor and 2 GB RAM. It's entirely useable. It's stable. The only problem is the wi-fi won't connect to my router due to security settings.

In terms of the operating system itself we haven't really gained a lot. Sure we have Air Drop now, and Snow Leopard can't talk to SMB 3 servers, but that could be fixed. Snow Leopard does speak EXFAT. It also supports 64 bit processors, so really it could do pretty well with some driver updates.

Mohave is also pretty good. I have that on a 2010 Mac Pro.