Excellent assessment. The big unknown, however, is whether it's already too late for Siri. It's not just a matter of developing a new ML powered voice assistant. It's building the training sets and continuing to refine them. Siri is probably years behind Alexa now, which might as well be decades.
It’s not too late because Siri isn’t competing with Alexa directly. Apple isn’t trying to sell Siri as a product to Amazon customers like Amazon is selling Alexa in Echo devices to their customers. Siri is a
feature that is included in Apple devices that people buy for a number of other reasons. And that’s why Apple doesn’t sell HomePod as a “smart speaker” like Amazon sells Echo. Apple sells HomePod as a really good speaker (which it really is) that happens to work with Siri. They’re different markets.
Ultimately, Apple just needs to get there by the time voice assistants become a dominant interface for computers with fully natural conversation like you see in the movie
Her for example. None of the voice assistants is anywhere close to that now, including Alexa.
I do want to point out that Apple hasn’t been sitting back doing nothing all this time. They realized they had hit a dead end with Siri several years ago when it became clear that it wasn’t designed to scale up and they essentially started over. They’ve been developing a new Siri that is infinitely expandable and
that Siri is hidden in plain sight on HomePod.
While Siri on HomePod can do less than the old Siri on iOS because it doesn’t have a screen and the new Siri isn’t yet feature complete, the one on HomePod is far smarter at both understanding what was said and then understanding what it means and what really was asked of it, in context. I’ve been performing tests with both and Siri on HomePod is clearly different than what is on iOS.
So, while Apple has been developing a new Siri, the original Siri currently on our iOS devices has been getting only maintenance updates which gives the impression that Apple has been ignoring it and letting it fall behind. That changed with iOS 12 as Shortcuts were introduced and the new and old Siri have begun to merge.
Shortcuts are a big turning point because it’s not just a user facing feature, it’s the underpinning of how Siri can now infinitely expand. While the user is charged with setting it up, Siri — the AI that looks for usage patterns — is now beginning to determine intelligently what actions you perform routinely to determine shortcuts for you to setup. Right now it just suggests them to you but in future advances, it’ll be able to set up these shortcut connections transparently in the background and know what you mean the first time you say: “I’m leaving for work” and run a series of actions without you having to have programmed them previously.
Siri is getting very powerful. To the average user who doesn’t see the mounting web of features as one strategy, it seems like it just has a bunch of loose features that they don’t use because they’re too complex. HomePod is key to how the new Siri will roll out as it reaches feature parity with the original Siri and then grows beyond that.
HomePod is here to stay because it’s far too important to Apple's strategy for the future of home computers where leveraging the power of the internet and the smart home is just a casual conversation away, not sitting in front of a device or pulling one out of our pockets to interact with like we do today.